Analysts Weigh in on Persistent Memory

Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory. . . Your Experts Today

Jeff Janukowicz, IDC Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

Jeff Janukowicz Research Vice President IDC Forecasting

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

- Abraham Lincoln

Measured by the digital data we create, Information Created WW capture, and replicate each year 50 Over the last many years, data has become 45 richer 40 2020 = 44 ZB However, in the advent of the Internet of

35 * 30 Things, machine to machine communication, 25 2015 = 9.3 ZB and intelligent systems, data is being Zetabytes 20 captured in many more ways. 2010 = 1.2 ZB 15 Much of the data that is created is never 10 stored for more than microseconds as data 5 2005 = 0.1 ZB is created in the process of delivering 0 content to devices that are requesting it for

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 various reasons. Information Created Source: IDC Digital Universe Study © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. *A Zettabyte = 1 million Petabytes 5 ‘Storing’ our Digital Universe

50 A storage device is rarely filled up to its 45 capacity 40 By 2020, we estimate a 50% utilization rate 35 across all storage mediums.

30 The resulting gap between the content we 25 create and the content we store is called Zetabytes 20 transient data 15 This is where services are provided (e.g., 10 OTT), real-time analytics and decision 5 making occur, and where our digital world evolves along side of our physical world. 0 Data is moving from the background into the 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 foreground as a valued commodity WW Installed Bytes Used Bytes Information Created Source: IDC Digital Universe Study and Where in the World is Storage Study

Registers

Cache Cost Effective Memory

DRAM Persistent Memory NAND Flash SSDs

Performance Optimized

Performance HDD

Capacity Optimized HDD

Tape / Optical

DRAM

Flash A lot more Flash Perf Optimized Perf Optimized

Capacity Capacity Optimized Optimized

Historical Today Near Future

Fact is, Datacenters come in all different shapes and sizes with variable workloads – but they all will have one thing in common – hot and cold data

In a “real time” world … Need find a way to intersect Data at the Speed of Life

WW Enterprise SSD Unit Shipments by Interface 5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 Units (Ku) 1,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 SAS sATA Other PCIe

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” - Abraham Lincoln To capitalize on the opportunity: Embrace the new paradigm Taylor the solution for the targeted applications Build an Ecosystem

Jim Handy, Objective Analysis Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Agenda

IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A

Brief On-line survey of IT managers’ needs: IOPS Capacity Latency Primary applications System bottleneck Original data 2012. Update 2016 Report interprets the results in depth: 150 Pages, 147 Figures, 9 Tables Analyzed by application showing changes with time Survey continues at TinyURL.com/IOPSsurvey © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. 15 Respondents’ Application Types

Mail server and mail storage, 4%

Archiving and backup, 6% Video Creation or Distribution, 6% Scientific or Engineering, 9% Databases, 43%

OLTP, 22%

Cloud storage or services, 10%

Source: How Many IOPS Is Enough? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. 2016

© 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. 16 How Many IOPS Do They Need? 40% 76% between 10K and 1M IOPS 30% The 2016 data shows a 54% higher mean in 20% IOPS required that the 2012 data Percent ofPercent Responses 10%

0% 10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M

Memory HDD SATA/SAS NVMe/PCIe Channel

102 103 104 105 106 107 IOPS Supported

1 SAN 0.1

0.01 HDD

Latency (seconds) 0.001

0.0001 SSD

0.00001

0.000001 DRAM

0.0000001 Cache 1E-08 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A

• 3D Xpoint (Optane at Intel and QuantX at Micron) or RRAM to provide intermediate layer between DRAM and NAND Flash • Intel announced that its upcoming Optane non- volatile memory will ship in the second quarter of the year as 16GB and 32GB M.2 expansion cards. Micron will also ship in Q2 • Company’s readying RRAM products, including some noise about carbon nano-tube products in 2017

2015 Emerging Non-Volatile Memory & Spin Logic Technologies and Manufacturing Report, Coughlin Associates

• Everspin IPO, Other start-ups in wings • ES STT MRAM with 1 Gb capacities-- replace DRAM/SRAM? • Global Foundries and others-- embedded MRAM (GF eMRAM 22FDX) • Low Power Requirements make MRAM a great option for battery powered IoT products and automobiles

IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A

$50

$40

$30

$20

$10 Annual NAND Revenues ($ Billions) Revenues Annual NAND $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: NAND Flash Update, 4Q16 Objective Analysis, 2016 © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. 24 Optimistic 3D XPoint Revenue Forecast

$2.5

$2.0

$1.5

$1.0

$0.5 Annual 3D XPoint Revenues ($Billions)

$0.0 2017 2018 2019 Source: A Close Look at the Micron/Intel 3D XPoint Memory © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. Objective Analysis, 2015 25 Flash M&E Revenue Share Is Growing 2015 2021

2016 Digital Storage in Media and Entertainment Report, Coughlin Associates

IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A

IOPS report available for immediate download online at: www.Objective-Analysis.com

Or order all three through Coughlin Associates at: http://www.TomCoughlin.com/techpapers.htm 408-202-5098 [email protected]