The 2018 Midterm Elections

Mark Strand, President of the Congressional Institute

2018 Election: Big Changes in House/Not so Much in the Senate

• Democrats have picked up 40 seats. Two seats being litigated, one of which has not been certified.

• Majority is 235-199. This gives Democrats 17 votes above the 218 majority.

• Republicans won the majority, and picked up two more seats for a 53-47 majority.

• Democrats pick up 7 Governorships Only four times in history have both parties gained seats in different chambers

Election years in which the President’s party gained seats in one chamber and lost seats in the other Year Party President House Change Senate Change

2018 Republican -40 +2

1982 Republican Ronald Reagan -27 +1

1970 Republican Richard Nixon -10 +1

1962 Democrat John Kennedy -6 +4

Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1966 80 66%

60 63% 63% 57% 58% 52% 49% 47% 45% 45% 43% 46% 40 39% 42%

20 5 8

0

-5 -8 -20 -12 -15 -13 -26 -30 -40 -40 -47 -48 -60 -52 -63

-80

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 TOTAL HOUSE EXITING HOUSE CYCLE MEMBERS SERVED MEMBERS TURNOVER 1992 441 115 26.1% 2010 446 105 23.5 2018 447 104 23.3 1974 442 102 23.1 1994 442 93 21.0 Third 2012 445 91 20.4 1982 444 89 20.0 Largest 1978 441 83 18.8 1980 442 80 18.1 Turnover of 1996 445 79 17.8 1976 441 73 16.6 Members in 2014 444 69 15.5 2008 448 67 15.0 2002 444 62 14.0 Modern Era 2006 440 60 13.6 2016 441 59 13.4 1990 445 55 12.4 1986 439 54 12.3 1998 444 49 11.0 1984 440 43 9.8 2000 440 43 9.8 2004 440 43 9.8 1988 441 39 8.8 40 2018 12

63 2014 12

30 2010 19

34 2006 18 What Were the Deciding Issues? Trump The Economy Trump Health Care Trump Immigration Trump Kavanaugh Hearings and the Way Women are Treated Trump

Trump Trump’s election was met with predictions of disaster for the United States and the world. The economy would collapse. The U.S. would blunder into a war caused by a presidential temper tantrum. The new American president was being blackmailed by Putin.

Instead, the US has the fastest rate of annual wage hikes in almost a decade. Unemployment is at its lowest rate since 1969.

The North American Free Trade Agreement has been saved with minor modifications.

The Islamic State is largely defeated. Tehran has not restarted its nuclear programs despite America’s withdrawal from the Iran deal and re-imposing sanctions. U.S. sanctions on Russia are still in place. NATO reinforced and strengthened.

Two Supreme Court Justices Yet despite all these accomplishments, Trump spends most of his time on a Populist agenda talking about criminals who are illegally in the United States and a caravan of immigrants from Central America.

Britt Hume: Donald Trump thinks everything is about him; the problem is that his opponents think the same thing.

For Democrats, the main issue was Donald Trump. The week before the election, outgoing Speaker called President Trump and asked him to start talking about the economy, but President Trump told him immigration did more to excite the base.

The Republicans may have chose the right issue for Trump’s base, but it was the wrong issue for independents and women, particularly in the suburbs. CNN Exit Polls White college educated women and white non-college educated men voted the same in 2010 Highest Turnout in 52 years A Green Wave? Democrats Raise More Money

$1,000 $923 $900

$800 Democrats Republicans

$700 $612 $600 $573

$500

$400 In Millions Dollars of $300 $250 $235

$200 $174

$100

$- Candidate Raised Parties Raised Outside Groups Spent Election largely driven by national demographics Pink Wave? Record Number of Women to Serve in 116th Congress

Record Number of Women in House and Senate

House 95

Senate 24 Not all will be smooth sailing… Some thoughts Nationwide, there were 23 Republicans who won their House races by less than five points. Had the Trump base not woken up after the Kavanaugh fight, Democrats could have easily gained 50 seats. – Cook Political Report.

Republicans must net 18 seats to win back the House in 2020 (Two 2018 races are still being litigated)

31 Democrats now hold “Trump” seats – these become first tier targets Only 3 Republicans now hold seats won by Hillary Clinton

On average, the parties of those six presidents elected to second terms netted only an average of seven House seats in those successful reelection bids. Even in landslides, Nixon (+12) and Reagan (+16) didn’t net quite the number of seats the GOP would need in 2020 to win the House back. - Sabato Crystal Ball

Senate will see a reverse of 2018 with Republicans defending more seats – but so far only a handful of seats look competitive. Governor and State Races

Why should you care about state races? Because they have a big impact on Congress.

In 2020 the United States will do its Constitutionally mandated census. The winners of this election will use that data to redraw the Congressional lines for the 2002 midterm elections.

There are some premier Governor races.

Opposite of Senate – of 36 races, Republicans defended 24. Premier Governor Races

Florida – Andrew Gillum against Ron DeSantis Georgia – Stacy Abrams and Brian Kemp Iowa - Kim Reynolds (incumbent) vs. Fred Hubbell Kansas – Laura Kelly against Kris Kobach and Greg Orman Nevada - Steve Sisolak against Adam Laxalt Ohio - Richard Cordray and Mike DeWine Wisconsin – Scott Walker vs. Tony Evers Big Night for Democrats in Statehouses

Democrats Pick up Wins in: • Illinois • Kansas • Maine • Michigan • New Mexico • Nevada • Wisconsin Democrat’s Good (not great) Night for State Legislatures

In 2018 Democrats won six chambers (there are 99 chambers in US states).

Republicans still hold a 61-37 lead in state chambers

In 2010 Republicans won 24 chambers, and the average change in a midterm election sees 12 chambers changing hands. Possible House Committee Chairs

Ranking Member Committees Chairman Mac Thornberry Armed Services Adam Smith Energy and Greg Walden Frank Pallone Commerce

Peter King (NY) Financial Services Maxine Waters

Mike McCaul Foreign Affairs Eliot Engel

Kevin Brady Ways & Means Richard Neal Possible Senate Committee Chairs

Chairman Committee Ranking Member Jim Inhofe Armed Services Jack Reed Energy and Lisa Murkowski Natural Maria Cantwell Resources Richard Shelby Appropriations Patrick Leahy

Foreign Jim Risch Bob Menendez Relations

Chuck Grassley Finance Ron Wyden Republican Leadership Elections

Republican Leader: Senate Majority Kevin McCarthy Leader: Mitch McConnell Republican Whip: Steve Scalise Senate Majority Whip: John Thune

Republican Conference Chair: Senate Republican Conference Chair: Liz Cheney John Barrasso Democratic Leadership Elections

Speaker-Designate: Senate Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi Chuck Schumer Majority Leader: Senate Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer Dick Durbin

Majority Whip: Jim Senate Asst. Democratic Clyburn Leader: Patty Murray Democrats list 85 possible investigations… here are the 12 most likely • Russian interference in the last • Security clearances for Jared election and the Mueller probe Kushner • Appointment of Matthew • Is the White House targeting Whitaker as Acting Attorney media for punishment – General AT&T/Time Warner merger • Hush money to women Trump • Brett Kavanaugh is alleged to have had affairs • Family separations at the with border • Trump’s tax returns • Health care law • Emoluments clause – is the • Education Secretary Betsy President receiving money from DeVos a foreign government at his hotel • Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke Will Anything Get Done? • Not much – expect gridlock

• There may be action on new trade agreements. • Maybe Infrastructure – but there is no money. • Democrats will rollback Republican tax reform, but it will not pass the Senate. • Maybe a compromise on health care and immigration is possible??? • Senate Republicans will keep confirming new judges to reshape the future of the Court