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Direct Download The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts on important questions in the arena of European public policy, written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership. This paperback is the result of a research project between October 2019 and June 2021 conducted by a research team including Willem Pieter de Groen (coordinator), Cinzia Alcidi, and Apostolos Thomadakis. CEPS gratefully acknowledges the sponsorship received for this report from Finance Denmark, Finance Finland and the Swedish Bankers’ Association. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors alone and do not reflect the opinions of the sponsors or any other member of CEPS. © Copyright 2021, CEPS All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.ceps.eu TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................................6 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................................7 1 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................8 1.1 Finalisation of Basel III ....................................................................................................................8 1.2 Relevance of the study ...................................................................................................................8 1.3 Reading guide .................................................................................................................................9 2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Data description ........................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Estimation of the impact on banks ................................................................................................ 11 2.3 Types of banks .............................................................................................................................. 13 2.4 Types of capital ............................................................................................................................ 16 2.5 Limitations ................................................................................................................................... 17 3 IMPACT WITH UNADJUSTED BALANCE SHEETS .................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Impact across measures ............................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Capital shortfall ............................................................................................................................ 20 4 IMPACT OF CONTINUED LENDING ................................................................................................................. 23 5 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1: RETAINED EARNINGS .............................................................................................. 25 5.1 BAU retained earnings .................................................................................................................. 26 5.2 Short-term effect of Covid-19 on retained earnings ...................................................................... 29 5.3 Long-term effect of Covid-19 on retained earnings ....................................................................... 30 6 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2: ISSUANCE OF NEW CAPITAL INSTRUMENTS .................................................................. 31 7 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 3: DELEVERAGING ..................................................................................................... 35 8 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 4: CHANGING PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION........................................................................ 37 9 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 5: DIFFERENT APPLICATION OF OUTPUT FLOOR ................................................................ 39 9.1 Decoupling Pillar II requirements and guidance ............................................................................ 40 9.2 Decoupling Pillar II and non-Basel buffers ..................................................................................... 41 9.3 Covid-19 adjusted buffers ............................................................................................................. 43 10 IMPACT ON THE REAL ECONOMY .............................................................................................................. 46 10.1 Literature review: why capital requirements matter ..................................................................... 46 10.2 Impact on the real economy of capital shortfalls and banks’ strategies to adjust .......................... 48 11 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................... 52 11.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 52 11.2 Recommendations........................................................................................................................ 53 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................... 55 APPENDIX 1. OVERVIEW OF BANKS INCLUDED IN SAMPLE .......................................................................................... 57 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 3.1 Increase in capital requirements (as share of June 2020 RWAs) ................................................... 18 Figure 3.2 Increase in capital requirements by country (as share of June 2020 RWAs) .................................. 19 Figure 3.3 Increase in capital requirements by type of bank (as share of June 2020 RWAs) .......................... 20 Figure 3.4 Shortfall on capital by country (as share of June 2020 RWAs) ...................................................... 21 Figure 3.5 Shortfall on capital by type of bank (as share of June 2020 RWAs) ............................................... 22 Figure 4.1 Shortfall on regulatory requirement and current capital level by country (as share of June 2020 RWAs).......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 4.2 Shortfall on regulatory requirement and current capital level by type of bank (as share of June 2020 RWAs).......................................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 5.1 Retained earnings by country (as share of June 2020 RWAs) ........................................................ 25 Figure 5.2 Increase in capital due to retained earnings by type of bank (as share of June 2020 RWAs) ......... 26 Figure 5.3 Shortfall on regulatory requirement and current capital level (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) ......................................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 5.4 Shortfall on regulatory requirement by country (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets).......... 27 Figure 5.5 Shortfall on current capital level by county (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) ................. 28 Figure 5.6 Shortfall on regulatory requirement by type of bank (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) .. 28 Figure 5.7 Shortfall on current capital levels by type of bank (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) ...... 29 Figure 5.8 Shortfall on regulatory requirement and current capital level (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 5.9 Shortfall on regulatory requirement and current capital level (as share of June 2020 aggregated assets) ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 6.1 Issuance of capital by country (as % of total number of banks) .................................................... 31 Figure 6.2 Issuance of capital by type of bank (as % of June 2020 total banks in each country) ..................... 32 Figure 6.3 Distribution of shortfall on regulatory requirement between listed and non-listed banks by country, June 2020 ...................................................................................................................................................
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