Election 2015 the Winner

www.policymagazine.ca November—December 2015

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Election 2015 The Winner

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 4 Election 2015 Susan Delacourt Canadian Politics and 7 How the Liberals Did It: Building a Surprise Majority Public Policy Geoff Norquay 10 Ballot Question 2015: Change Trumps Stability EDITOR L. Ian MacDonald L. Ian MacDonald From Orange Crush to Orange Crash: [email protected] 14 The Front-Runner Campaign That Wasn’t ASSOCIATE EDITOR

Lisa Van Dusen David McLaughlin

[email protected] Stuff Happens: From Duffy to the Refugee Crisis, 18 from the Niqab to the Snitch Line CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Robin V. Sears Thomas S. Axworthy 20 Lessons From the Big Armchair: Go Clean or Stay Home Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran Kevin Lynch Brian Bohunicky, Derek H. Burney 24 Transition 2015: Perfecting the ‘How?’ of Governing Catherine Cano, Margaret Clarke Celine Cooper, Susan Delacourt David Mitchell Restoring Trust in Public Institutions Fen Osler Hampson, Daniel Gagnier 27 Martin Goldfarb, Patrick Gossage Martin Goldfarb Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch 30 Liberal Values Are Canadian Values Jeremy Kinsman, Andrew MacDougall Charles J. McMillan Velma McColl, David McLaughlin 33 The Atlantic: Anatomy of a Clean Sweep David Mitchell, Don Newman Antonia Maioni Geoff Norquay, Robin V. Sears 36 Quebec: Coming to Terms With Federalist Parties Gil Troy, Anthony Wilson-Smith Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon WEB DESIGN 38 So Much for the Big Shift: How Ontario Went Liberal Nicolas Landry [email protected] Dale Eisler 41 The Prairies: Notley Victory Unleashed Forces of Change SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Greg Lyle Grace MacDonald [email protected] 44 The B.C. Battleground that Wasn’t: The View From the Wet Coast Catherine Cano GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION 47 Campaign Coverage: Have the Media Reinvented Themselves? Monica Thomas [email protected] Kevin Chan Facebook and the Federal Election: A New Platform for Policy 50 Civic Engagement Andrew MacDougall Policy is published six times annually How Social Was it? The Team that Won the Web War by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Won the Campaign copyrighted, but may be reproduced 53 with permission and attribution in Grace MacDonald print, and viewed free of charge at 56 Death by a Million Clicks: How the Tories Failed to Win Millennials the Policy home page at Column / Don Newman www.policymagazine.ca. 58 Why Justin May Be the Tougher Trudeau Printed and distributed by St. Joseph Communications, 1165 Kenaston CANADA AND THE WORLD Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Jeremy Kinsman Special thanks to our sponsors 59 Crisis and the European Union, Part Two: The Refugees and advertisers. Sergio Marchi 63 Electricity: Canada’s Physical Heartbeat Cover photo by Adam Scotti Claude Mongeau 67 Building on Strong Foundations as a Backbone of the Economy

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Election 2015 elcome to our special is- tion in 2015, and writes that change And finally we are delighted to wel- sue on Election 2015, a trumped continuity, with Trudeau come Don Newman to our roster of W campaign that took many coming to personify change while Mul- writers. In his first column, Don looks twists and turns over 78 days before the cair lost this debate decisively in the at the pathway to power taken by voters elected a surprise Liberal major- closing weeks of the campaign. Robin Pierre Trudeau in the last century, and ity on October 19. They did so because Sears writes of lessons learned for the Justin Trudeau today. He concludes Justin Trudeau and the Liberals ran by NDP and the Conservatives, and the that the son had the more challenging far the best campaign, at both the stra- identity politics that hurt the NDP but path than the father, and may be the tegic and retail levels. came back to haunt the Conservatives tougher and more resilient Trudeau for in the end. David McLaughlin writes having earned his way to the top. The Liberals clearly won the ballot that stuff happens in elections, espe- question of change, and offered a key cially 78-day campaigns. And Marty special note of thanks to our differentiator, pledging stimulative Goldfarb, the dean of Canadian poll- deficits while the NDP echoed the Con- remarkably talented writers sters who worked for Trudeau’s father, and to the Policy production servative platform of balanced budgets. tells us how and why voters found their A team for pulling most of this special is- The Liberals outflanked the NDP with way back to the Liberal brand. progressive voters on the left, notably sue together in only a week. Our peer- in Ontario, as Kathleen Wynne and the We also have five regional profiles— less Associate Editor, Lisa Van Dusen, provincial Liberals did in 2014. Charles McMillan on the Atlantic, An- handles take-out length articles at wire tonia Maioni on Quebec, Tom Axwor- service speed. And our graphic design- The campaign also featured a record thy and Rana Shamoon on Ontario, er, Monica Thomas, has created anoth- five leaders’ debates and Trudeau more Dale Eisler on the Prairies and Greg er beautiful-looking edition, the largest than held his own in all of them, prov- Lyle on B.C. in our three-year history. As it happens, ing he belonged on the big stage. He the cover subject in this issue is the took his momentum from the debates Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch same as in our inaugural issue at the out onto the hustings, attracting grow- writes about the challenges of govern- time of his election to the Liberal leading crowds along the way. His retail ment transitions, something he knows game was easily the best of the three a lot about as a former Clerk of the ership in early 2013. Since then, Policy main leaders, while NDP Leader Tom Privy Council and head of the Public has become a must-read for Canada’s Mulcair never really found his voice. Service. He writes that it’s time for a political and public policy community. And in Quebec, though Trudeau and governance re-boot, with an empha- Thanks as well to Trudeau’s photogra- Mulcair held similar moderate views sis on risk management rather than pher, Adam Scotti, for providing many on the niqab issue, only the NDP paid risk avoidance. David Mitchell, former of the action shots in this issue, as well a political price for it, plunging 20 president of the Public Policy Forum, as the cover image. shares his thoughts on governance in a points in the polls in only three weeks. In our Canada and the World section, campaign period. The NDP campaign went from Orange Jeremy Kinsman considers the existen- Crush to Orange Crash. Then there was the social media ef- tial moment in the European Union fect. Catherine Cano writes that main- over the refugee crisis, which has seen ow the Liberals and NDP trad- stream news organizations such as ed places, from third to first millions of displaced and dispossessed her own Radio-Canada have met the persons migrate to Europe from the and first to third, is a story for H challenge of new media and are grow- Middle East and Africa. Finally, two the history books. In this issue, we offer ing audience. Facebook’s Kevin Chan a first draft of that history. Our team Canadian CEOs offer their thoughts argues that social media are the new on this story is, quite simply, as expe- on business issues connected to public platform for public engagement, while rienced and authoritative as any in the policy. Sergio Marchi of the Canadian Andrew MacDougall observes that this business. 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Senior Adviser Gerald Butts and Campaign Co-Chair Katie Telford aboard the campaign plane with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. Both played a major role in Trudeau’s winning campaign. Adam Scotti photo How the Liberals Did It: Building a Surprise Majority Susan Delacourt

A frequent refrain after upset electoral victories is that he heavy wooden front doors of the Langevin Building, shut the winner was “underestimated”. In Justin Trudeau’s T down for construction through- case, the word hangs like a banner over his famous- out Canada’s 42nd election, were ﬁ- ly well-coiffed and, apparently, politically ingenious nally reopened on October 20, the day after Canadians voted for a massive head. Veteran columnist and author Susan Delacourt change in government. explains how the team Trudeau led adeptly built a his- The next day, Liberal Leader Justin toric win on October 19 from the ground up, heedless Trudeau breezed through those doors of short-term distractions and undeniably aided by the on his way to have a chat with Stephen Harper, the man he was replacing as low expectations of their opponents. prime minister.

November/December 2015 8 Their conversation was reportedly cordial and helpful. This, however, Political process stories are not big-headline makers. was a departure for Harper and many But Trudeau and his team were serious about rebuild- others, who have spent the past few ing the organization from the ground up, from the moment years failing to see Trudeau on the he entered the leadership campaign. doorstep of power. Trudeau may well have taken Harper’s job because he was so often underestimated—and no one can say they weren’t warned. gies for putting organization over around Trudeau grew, so too did “I was an opponent of his dad who policy pronouncements. “My empha- the database—a perfect marriage was a tough, able guy. The apple, sis right now…is on organization,” between celebrity and cold, hard I’m sure, doesn’t fall too far from Trudeau told a crowd at Western Uni- calculation. the tree. There’s a lot of steel in versity in February 2013. “It is on this,” former Prime Minister Brian building the capacity to be relevant Katie Telford, the extremely capa- Mulroney said in an interview with in every single riding across the coun- ble person who served as Trudeau’s CTV’s Power Play in the fall of 2012, try, folding people back, not just into campaign co-chair, talks often about before Trudeau had even become the Liberal party, but actually into her fondness for numbers. She in- Liberal leader. the political process.” sists that staff show up for meetings “People should not underestimate with a number—preferably a number him in any way. I think they’ll turn that shows progress for the Liberals, Katie Telford, the whether it’s the amount of doors out to be disappointed if they do. extremely capable He’s got a lot of the requirements knocked or volunteers recruited. for leadership and who knows if it person who served as All of this was the detail work that catches on? If he can do it, it will be Trudeau’s campaign co- Liberals were talking about in their a big success story.” chair, talks often about her famous “hope and hard work” slo- We are all familiar by now with the fondness for numbers. She gan. But it was more than a platitude. metaphor of the boxing match be- insists that staff show up for Back in the summer, when it looked tween Trudeau and Patrick Brazeau meetings with a number like the party was tumbling in the in 2012, and how the “lightweight” —preferably a number that opinion polls, Telford and Trudeau’s chief adviser, Gerald Butts, remained Liberal was underestimated as a se- shows progress for the rious fighter. What’s remarkable is confident that the New Democrats’ the way in which the metaphor sunk Liberals, whether it’s the high poll numbers were merely up into the Canadian political class, but amount of doors knocked or in the air, and not matched with never the lessons of it. volunteers recruited. the strength the Liberals had built on the ground. In September, Tel- New Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ford and Butts were quietly assuring didn’t sneak through the back door people that in the party’s close track- to power. There were many warn- ing of 200-plus ridings, “the underly- ings that he had big plans for him- ing numbers are moving in the right self and his party, which all fell into Political process stories are not direction.” place quite nicely for them on Octo- big-headline makers. But Trudeau ber 19, with a solid, Liberal-red ma- and his team were serious about re- By then, they were boasting that Lib- jority governing Canada for the next building the organization from the erals had knocked on five million four years. Now, in the immediate ground up, from the moment he doors—real, on-the-ground contact. aftermath of the victory, it’s worth entered the leadership campaign. Rather than panic, they stayed se- looking back to see where his oppo- While the leader plunged into the rene. It turns out Telford and Butts nents might have seen this coming, crowds who came out to see him, were correct; once again, and it was if they had been watching for the his people were collecting names a mistake to underestimate all the or- right things. and contact information to feed ganizational spade work that Liberals into the Liberal database. Largely had done on the ground. uring his leadership cam- under the oversight of Trudeau’s paign in late 2012 and early old friend, Tom Pitfield, the Liberals iberals were also called delu- D 2013, Trudeau’s team was got very serious about digital orga- sional, repeatedly, in their as- criticized for its “no-policy policy.” nization and the science of building L pirations for a majority. No Trudeau, however, made no apolo- a modern campaign. As the crowds party had ever pulled off a come-

Policy 9 back from third to first. Yet the this trap. We didn’t expect them to weary of the negative ads. Trudeau team had their eyes on walk into it.” that prize for more than a year be- By the time the end of the election fore the Oct. 19 vote. The same could well be said in the af- loomed in mid-October, Trudeau termath of the 2015 victory for the and his team staged a massive rally At a summer caucus meeting in Ed- Trudeau Liberals. Had the Conserva- in Brampton, with more than 7,000 monton in 2014, people laughed tives or New Democrats looked more people crowded into a stadium, to when Trudeau and his advisers pro- closely at the lessons from Ontario, hear a powerful “better is always pos- duced a strategy called the “path they might have seen how it made sible” speech from the Liberal leader. through 170”—a detailed plan to sense for Trudeau and Wynne to ap- build a majority victory in all re- pear as allies in the election. Wynne, That was the moment in which the gions of the country, including Al- like Trudeau, was underestimated Liberals truly captured that precious berta. Critics scoffed that the Liber- too. And the repeat of the Ontario electoral commodity of momentum, strategy worked again. als would have trouble winning any with vivid visuals. Clips from the seats west of the Ontario-Manitoba rally were quickly turned into an ad, border. When the results were finally which had the feel of the famous in on Oct. 19, 2015, Liberals held 30 Had the Molson “I Am Canadian” ad of the seats in B.C., Alberta, Manitoba, Sas- Conservatives or 1990s, or, going farther back, Ronald katchewan and Yukon. New Democrats looked more Reagan’s “Morning in America” ad. As for a big bulk of those 154 seats closely at the lessons from Liberals had nailed the hard-work east of Manitoba, Conservatives were Ontario, they might have part of their slogan by this point in also sure that Trudeau was making seen how it made sense for the campaign—this was the picture a big strategic mistake by relying of hope. on so much help from Ontario Pre- Trudeau and Wynne to mier Kathleen Wynne. Not only was appear as allies in the Still, despite the scent of victory Trudeau borrowing some of her staff election. Wynne, like around the Liberals on Election Day, for the campaign, but he was also Trudeau, was pre-vote polls were being cautious. A following the blueprint that deliv- underestimated too. And the majority seemed a slight possibility— ered her surprise victory in 2014— which quickly turned into a definite campaigning to the left of the New repeat of the Ontario probability as the polls closed and Democrats. strategy worked again. early results started to pour in from Quebec, Ontario and the Prairies. It was no accident that David Herle, architect of that Wynne victory, was In the end, it was probably fitting also a key adviser in Trudeau’s camp. that the majority took so many peo- And sure enough, much of the nar- ny examination of the Lib- ple by surprise the night of October rative of the federal campaign was eral election victory has to 19. Trudeau had been underestimat- an echo of the story in Ontario—the take notice of the advertising A ed—again. And as Mulroney long- Conservatives pushed to the hard war. Many smart people were predict- ago predicted, it was a “big success right, NDP to the mushy, confusing ing that Trudeau would be done in by middle. Harper’s decision to cam- the Conservatives’ “Just Not Ready” story.” paign with the Ford brothers in the ads, especially as the campaign be- Susan Delacourt, author of the final week, and Thomas Mulcair’s gan and the phrase began emerging bestselling Shopping For Votes, writes over-cautious avoidance of deficits robotically from voters’ lips. Once a column for the Toronto Star and in his platform put the Liberals’ ri- again, it looked like another Liberal vals exactly where the Trudeau team leader had been felled by the Conser- iPolitics. She also teaches a graduate wanted them. vatives’ advertising colossus. course in journalism at Carleton University. [email protected] It’s worth a look at this quote from But a funny thing happened along Herle in a 2014 post-election analysis the election trail. First, the Liber- of Wynne’s campaign victory: “You als took the risk of repeating the al- can design a strategy… but you can legation in a rebuttal ad, featuring never really hope your opponents Trudeau saying, “I’m ready.” The ex- will play their parts as well as they tra-long election campaign not only did,” Herle told The Globe and Mail. gave Trudeau a chance to learn and “We spent a lot of time thinking improve his game, notably on the about how to suck these people into TV debates; it also made voters more

November/December 2015 10 Ballot Question 2015: Change Trumps Stability Geoff Norquay

One of the many political clichés that’s a cliché for a rea- As the one party that had never formed a national government, the son is that campaigns matter. What we learned from the NDP decided they needed to lower 2015 federal election campaign is that—ironically for the the risk voters faced in choosing man who called it—long campaigns matter even more. them, so they joined the Conserva- tives in making balanced budgets This one was so revelatory of all the principals that, by the touchstone of their economic Election Day, a result that was stunning on paper also plan and a key part of their ballot had a sense of preordainment based entirely on what had question. This positioning created a “progressive vacuum” among voters unfolded in the previous 11 weeks. Longtime Tory strate- who believed in an activist role for gist Geoff Norquay bestows praise and lays blame on the government. It opened the door for professionals responsible. the Liberals to jump over the NDP and move to the left, to abandon the economic orthodoxy of balanced budgets in favour of stimulative defi- reating the ballot question is For the two cits to kick-start the economy. the most important task of C the party leader in a national opposition parties, election. The ballot question is each of course, they were engaged When the NDP began party leader’s key differentiator from in a zero-sum game—victory talking about the the others—the strategic phrase that required each to best the summarizes the “big issue” of the need for balanced budgets, election and frames the choice to be other to become the agent they removed a key made by voters. of change. This proved to differentiator in relation to be the decisive dynamic of the Liberals, and when they With a steady 70 per cent of Canadi- ans wanting a different government, the campaign. piled costly promise on costly the ballot question in election 2015 promise, the internal logic of was always going to be about change. The Conservatives had a defensive their platform began to take on the question; essentially, The arc of election 2015 is easy unravel. The NDP’s campaign “Stick with the experienced hand enough to describe. In the first phase, was joyless, devoid of hope you can trust on the economy and from the start of the campaign to the and inspiration, and as national security, warts and all, be- Labour Day weekend, Tom Mulcair cause the alternatives are unproven, absent of vision as the and the NDP looked like a good bet to scary and expensive.” Quite a mouth- Conservatives’. win. In the second month, the three ful! The Liberals and the NDP took a parties were in a dead heat within much simpler approach: “Time for a two to three percentage points of change; I can do it—pick me.” each other and the “lead” changing For the two opposition parties, of every other day. And then in the fi- he initial positioning of the course, they were engaged in a zero- nal three weeks, Justin Trudeau and NDP sought to soften the im- sum game—victory required each to the Liberals claimed the mantle of T age of its leader, and it proved best the other to become the agent change and first slowly, then very to be a difficult start to the campaign. of change. This proved to be the de- quickly, pulled away with a smash- In both their TV ads and in his initial cisive dynamic of the campaign. ing and impressive victory. August debate performance, it was

Policy 11

Galneweinhaw Wickipedia Image clear that his handlers had told Mul- erate position that was clearly offside simply wasn’t going to make it, and cair to keep “Angry Tom” in check with the vast majority of Quebecers, the momentum shifted to Trudeau and to smile more. Unfortunately, not to mention a significant portion as the obvious champion of change. his campaign launch was stiff and of Canadians elsewhere. Then the echo effect took over, and uninspiring, and unlike even Ste- Ontario’s growing Liberal intentions phen Harper’s launch, he declined in turn reinforced the NDP collapse to take questions while Trudeau took The damage to the in Quebec. them until they stopped coming. NDP’s Quebec base or Stephen Harper and the The problem was that Mulcair’s told Ontarians that Mulcair simply wasn’t going to make Conservatives, election 2015 makeover misplaced both his passion F was always going to be a big and conviction. His smile looked far it, and the momentum challenge. Any three-term prime from natural, some thought “Happy shifted to Trudeau as the minister seeking a fourth mandate Tom” was even “creepy.” When the obvious champion of change. is asking for a lot; no PM since Wil- NDP began talking about the need Then the echo effect took frid Laurier in 1908 had pulled off for balanced budgets, they removed that feat. When that government is a key differentiator in relation to the over, and Ontario’s growing led by a prime minister with a per- Liberals, and when they piled costly Liberal intentions in turn sona that is polarizing, partisan and promise on costly promise, the in- reinforced the NDP collapse seen by many as just plain mean, the ternal logic of their platform began odds become very difficult indeed. to unravel. The NDP’s campaign was in Quebec. joyless, devoid of hope and inspira- The roots of the Conservative demise tion, and as absent of vision as the were put in place long before the Conservatives’. dropping of the writ. The war with the national media, the constant Clearly the emergence of the niqab As a result, the party’s support in its playing to the Conservative “base,” as a campaign issue was the most Quebec stronghold quickly began the abolition of the long-form cen- decisive and damaging development to shatter, opening the door to seat sus, the removal of health care ben- for the NDP, and, for them, created gains there by the Liberals, Conser- efits from failed refugee claimants, a perfect storm. As the Conservatives vatives and the Bloc. At the same the denigration of caucus by the ramped up the rhetoric, Mulcair re- time, the damage to the NDP’s Que- “kids in short pants,” the insults sponded with a principled and mod- bec base told Ontarians that Mulcair to the chief justice of the Supreme

November/December 2015 12 Court, the Duffy fiasco, the muzzling platform was static, defensive and and her key acolytes—have gone back and bullying of federal scientists, the uninspiring. Harper was focusing on one time too many to the formula unrestrained partisanship, the Robo- the achievable, while Trudeau was that brought them to success many calls, and a remote and surly prime focusing on the possible. years before. Sadly for the Conserva- minister who refused on principle to tives, the same clique who reduced communicate with the public except With their room for growth so limit- the party’s potential support to just on his own terms—to name just a ed, the Conservatives really had only above a third of Canadians were the few—had all combined to reduce the one faint hope of keeping govern- true architects of this defeat. possible Conservative vote to well ment—that neither of the two oppo- under 40 per cent. sition parties would run away with the change vote, and that the result- When they doubled Despite all that, the Conservatives ing stalemate would enable the To- down by did actually begin the campaign ries to sneak up the middle and eke with a shot at victory. It was by no out a victory on the riding-by-riding announcing the Barbaric means clear that Trudeau would per- splits. But then, they completely Cultural Practices snitch form as well as he ultimately did. As departed from their ballot question line, and began musing the campaign started, the Conser- and blew themselves up. about banning the niqab in vatives as well as many in the me- the federal public service, dia expected that the Liberal leader hen they deployed the might damage himself by off-hand niqab wedge, the Conser- (yet another cure for which comments or gaffes—as had hap- W vatives’ strategic objec- there was no known disease) pened so many times before. tive was limited—to knock the two the Conservatives’ wedge opposition parties back by about circled back with a 5 per cent. But in response to the vengeance to put the final Harper had always wedge, the NDP began to slide in nail in their coffin. had a strange Quebec, and then kept sliding, and the Conservatives suddenly realized aversion to speaking in to their horror that they had been visionary terms about far too successful. And when they anything, so his platform doubled down by announcing the Theirs was a suspicious Canada and a was static, defensive and Barbaric Cultural Practices snitch line, and began musing about ban- Canada without dreams; they always uninspiring. Harper was ning the niqab in the federal public preferred short-term tactics over a focusing on the achievable, service, (yet another cure for which long-term vision. They never under- while Trudeau was focusing there was no known disease) the stood governing, so they saw no use on the possible. Conservatives’ wedge circled back for government. They ran a closed with a vengeance to put the final circle, they humiliated staff, they be- nail in their coffin. rated candidates, they pushed every reasonable argument far beyond its The final few days of the campaign logical limit, they shut out others were painful to watch: a prime min- with a different view, and they craft- The Conservatives might also have ister who had run a one-man cam- ed a campaign based much more on scored better with a more visionary paign with no evidence of a team, anger and fear than hope. And they approach on several fronts. The eco- plaintively pleading that the elec- weren’t even competent enough to nomic and foreign trade successes of tion was “not about me,” when just prevent guys peeing in cups from be- the last nine years were significant, about every Canadian voter had long coming candidates. but where was the bridge to the fu- since decided that’s exactly what it ture? The PM could have invoked was about. And the final weekend’s Within the Conservative Party, great the need for a well-trained labour Doug and Rob Ford rally in Toron- will be the celebration at their well- force for success in the global knowl- to—demeaning, desperate, execra- deserved and permanent riddance. edge economy, the importance and ble, and hugely damaging, driving value of immigration to the diversity several hundred thousand potential In May of 2015, Justin Trudeau’s Lib- of our citizenship and the promise of votes away. Well done, campaign erals were in third place in the nation- innovation to lead to future compet- team: coup de grace...on yourselves. al polls and his party was becoming itiveness and prosperity. But this was restive. Other than the legalization of not to be; Harper had always had a When election campaigns fail, it is marijuana, they had for the most part strange aversion to speaking in vi- usually because the team in charge— kept the entire platform under wraps. sionary terms about anything, so his in this case, the campaign manager But growing concerns about the lack

Policy 13 of policy proposals on the record fi- In the final analysis, the “royal jelly” of the nally pushed the Liberal brain-trust into beginning to lift the veil. campaign was provided by Trudeau himself. Despite the odd gaffe—his strange comments on small Trudeau promised to create a new business owners being in business to scam the system—he and higher tax bracket for those earning more than $200,000 per proved himself to be a natural and highly effective retail year, committed to an alternate politician over the 78 days of the campaign. He grew in structure for child benefit payments, stature as a leader and as a communicator who obviously promised to close a number of tax loved what he was doing. loopholes, and released his policy packages on open government and the environment.

As a result, the concerns about policy ing the expectations gap, and built pioneered. Their new media/online receded, and the rest of the platform on that strong beginning through- presence in the 2015 campaign was was comprehensive and well-re- out the campaign. state-of-the-art. ceived. Stealing a page from the Con- servatives’ 2006 election playbook, As noted earlier, Trudeau’s reposi- In the final analysis, the “royal jelly” the Liberals used it to define both tioning of the Liberals in favour of of the campaign was provided by themselves and their leader substan- deficits dedicated to spending on in- Trudeau himself. Despite the odd tively, and to put to rest any doubts frastructure and helping the middle gaffe—his strange comments on about their readiness to govern. class was pivotal in outflanking both small business owners being in busi- the NDP and the Conservatives. A ness to scam the system—he proved generation before, Paul Martin had s the election began in early himself to be a natural and highly bludgeoned Canadians into accept- August, there was huge pres- effective retail politician over the 78 ing that unrestrained deficits and sure on Trudeau to perform, days of the campaign. He grew in A debt were toxic to their future. and even among his supporters there stature as a leader and as a commu- were serious doubts that he could or Now, Trudeau gambled that many nicator who obviously loved what he would. The highly-effective Conser- voters had tired of austerity and mi- was doing. Clearly at ease with both vative attack ad—the famous job in- cro-targeted tax breaks for favoured individuals and large crowds, he fed terview (“Nice hair, though”)—was groups—and they were ready for the off their energy and got even better, beginning to register with Canadi- federal government to take on big contrasting much better against the ans. With expectations for Trudeau nation-building projects for the ben- “two old stodgy guys” leading the shaky at best, the first leaders’ debate efit of all Canadians. other two parties. Most importantly, on August 6 loomed as a big test. Trudeau decisively bested Mulcair The attractiveness of this position to Prior to the debate, Conservative voters was not immediately appreci- on the strategic voting for change spokesperson Kory Teneycke taste- ated; many observers thought it was question and he won the election fully observed, “I think that if he at best a high-risk gambit, at worst, over Harper by convincing Canadi- comes on stage with his pants on, he foolhardy in the extreme, but with ans that they indeed wanted to try will probably exceed expectations.” the NDP now hugging Harper’s bal- “sunny ways” for a change. Well, the pants were not only firmly anced budget mantra, it became a In the final analysis, the Liberal vic- on, but in that debate, Trudeau also critical point of demarcation—and tory was all about having a flawless showed for the first time he had departure—for the Liberals. It also plan, both the time and the leader come to play with the big boys. became the Liberals’ defining “take” to implement it, and presenting the on the position. When Tom Mulcair repeatedly right answer to the ballot question. pressed him to declare his winning The Liberals got one other very im- Change trumped stability. The spe- number for a Quebec referendum, portant thing right. Beginning under cial alchemy of a youthful and vigor- Trudeau answered with confidence, interim leader Bob Rae, and continuous leader came together with a sub- “I’ll give you a number. Nine. My ing under campaign co-chair Katie stantive and winning narrative to put number is nine. Nine Supreme Court Telford, they shook off the cobwebs another Trudeau in 24 Sussex. justices said one vote is not enough and dragged their party apparatus to break up this country.” In an im- and campaign infrastructure into Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay portant sense, that simple, smart the 21st century. They developed is a principal of Earnscliffe Strategy retort was the author of much that and matched the data analytics and Group. He is a former senior policy followed. Trudeau didn’t necessarily volunteer mobilization programs adviser to Prime Minister Brian win the debate, but he started clos- the other two parties had long since Mulroney. [email protected]

November/December 2015 14

Adam Scotti photo From Orange Crush to Orange Crash: The Front- Runner Campaign That Wasn’t L. Ian MacDonald

As many of our readers know, the only thing more n the Sunday after the election call, and three days after painful in politics than losing an election is losing O the ﬁrst leaders’ debate, NDP an election that started out as yours to lose. When senior campaign adviser Brad Lavigne the federal election was called in August, NDP Leader met a friend for brunch at the Café Métropolitain, a favoured hangout of Tom Mulcair was leading in the polls and seemed to be Ottawa’s political set.

occupying the electoral sweet spot between disenchant- Sitting in a corner booth by the bar, ment with Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and he stirred his coffee and considered doubts about Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s inexperi- the NDP’s front-running status in the polls, which then had the party in the ence. Then, the campaign happened. low 30s. The NDP’s internal numbers showed the same thing.

Policy 15 “We’ve never been here before,” he said. By the beginning of May, the NDP had already grown to the high 20s, with the Liberals having Which kind of turned out to be the plunged from first to third place since last October. The problem. Liberals’ sharp decline in the polls could be measured from Not only had the NDP never been the moment of Justin Trudeau’s memorable gaffe that there before, they hadn’t expected Stephen Harper wanted to “whip out our CF-18s” and to be in first place at the outset of the campaign. Nor, as it turned out, show everyone how big they are. did they have a narrative for a 78- day marathon rather than a normal 37-day campaign. than second in the election, and to one of Mulcair’s finest moments as hold on to both the OLO and Stor- NDP leader. From a nadir of 20 per cent in the noway. In an expected minority polls last fall, the NDP had hoped to House, this would leave Mulcair and grow to the high 20s by the begin- nd then came the Notley ning of summer. the NDP in the driver’s seat in any effect. After the surprise elec- talks with the Liberals about a work- A tion of Rachel Notley and the Their fortunes began to take a turn ing arrangement to defeat a Conser- NDP in Alberta on May 6, the fed- for the better over the winter after vative plurality. eral NDP had a five-point bump in Tom Mulcair shook up the Office of the polls. The conversation went like By the beginning of May, the NDP the Leader of the Opposition, bring- this: if the NDP can win in Alberta, had already grown to the high 20s, ing in Alain Gaul, who had been they can win anywhere, even Ottawa. with him in the environment min- with the Liberals having plunged ister’s office in Quebec City, to be from first to third place since last Oc- But this proved to be an illusion. chief of staff in the OLO. In no time, tober. The Liberals’ sharp decline in Within weeks of the writ on August what had been a dysfunctional OLO the polls could be measured from the 2, the Notley effect dissipated and became one where decisions were moment of Justin Trudeau’s memora- then disappeared, leaving the NDP made and things got done. ble gaffe that Stephen Harper wanted back in the high 20s, where they to “whip out our CF-18s” and show had started. Mulcair then reached out to two key everyone how big they are. members of Jack Layton’s political entourage to run the NDP campaign. t was a smart-ass remark about From the beginning, Layton’s former chief of staff, Anne a serious issue—the mission a- the NDP ran a front- McGrath, was brought back as cam- I gainst ISIS in Iraq, later expanded paign director. And Lavigne, who had to Syria. The Liberals waffled on both, runner campaign, when they been Layton’s principal secretary at saying they supported the troops but were never really in front. OLO and previously campaign direc- opposed the mission. In the first The NDP’s strategy of tor in the 2011 Orange Wave election, parliamentary debate—on the six- caution was apparent from left his consulting gig at H&K Strate- month deployment of CF-18s and gies to become senior adviser in the the presence of 60 elite Joint Task Day One. Mulcair made his campaign. Mulcair’s announcement Force “trainers” of Kurdish insur- opening statement at the of his return, at a Wednesday morn- gents in northern Iraq—Trudeau Museum of History in ing caucus in January, prompted a failed to speak in the House. By the Gatineau, with Parliament spontaneous ovation. time of the second House debate, on expanding the Kuwait-based air Hill as a gorgeous backdrop. By the time of the Broadbent Insti- mission to Syria and extending it Then he walked away from tute’s annual Progress Summit at the end of March, the NDP was on by a year, the Liberals were jammed the podium without taking the move. Over drinks at the bar of between Conservative support and any questions. Ottawa’s Delta Centre Hotel, Lavi- NDP opposition. gne and McGrath were very forth- Then, in the wake of the shooting coming about the priorities for the of two soldiers on Canadian soil coming campaign. last October 20 and 22, the Liberals From the beginning, the NDP ran a “The first objective,” Lavigne said, voted in favour of the Conservative front-runner campaign, when they “is to hold on to what we’ve got.” security legislation, Bill C-51, to the were never really in front. The NDP’s great annoyance of progressive vot- strategy of caution was apparent from In other words, to finish no worse ers, who migrated to the NDP. It was Day One. Mulcair made his opening

November/December 2015 16 thus entitled to wear the niqab at a citizenship ceremony.

The NDP numbers then tanked in Quebec outside Montreal. The niqab issue ﬁgured prominently in the two French-language leadership debates on September 24 on Radio-Canada and October 2 on TVA.

The NDP had gone into the campaign in ﬁrst place, polling in the low 30s, with the Liberals mired in third place in the mid-20s. The story of how they traded places is one for the history books.

irst of all, the 78-day campaign played to Trudeau’s acknowl- F edged strength—his retail game. He was very good in crowds, end- lessly posing for selfies that ended up NDP Leader Tom Mulcair never really found his voice or created a comfort level with voters, who on Facebook and Twitter. The buzz knew Angry Tom, but found Happy Tom inauthentic. NDP Facebook photo. wasn’t just in the room, it was also on social media. It wasn’t just his stami- statement at the Museum of History This was Mulcair’s decision to pres- na that carried through the marathon in Gatineau, with Parliament Hill as a ent himself as a fiscal moderate. Or campaign; by the end of it, he came to gorgeous backdrop. Then he walked as one adviser put it privately at the personify generational change. away from the podium without tak- time: “We’re the NDP, we have to ing any questions, and he looked balance the budget.” For the Liberals, Trudeau’s deficit uncomfortable in doing so. The deci- position was the differentiator from sion to take no questions was simply He was referring to bad memories of the NDP on change. In the process, an attempt to control the message by NDP deficits in Ontario under Bob he outflanked the NDP on the left, staying on it. While Mulcair took no Rae, in British Columbia under Mike while Mulcair was positioning a so- questions, even Stephen Harper was Harcourt, and even the $6 billion cialist party to the right on the fiscal taking five of them in front of Rideau structural deficit Notley inherited framework. This was right out of the Hall. Later, in Vancouver, Trudeau from the ousted Progressive Conser- Kathleen Wynne playbook from the took as many questions as reporters vatives in Alberta. 2014 Ontario election, and it was no wanted to ask. Mulcair then took the accident—the campaign was run by next day off. the same people. hen came the niqab debate. And in the first leaders’ debate host- T Trudeau also inoculated himself on ed by Maclean’s, Angry Tom was re- After the Federal Court of Appeal the deficit question simply by saying placed by Happy Tom, a weird-look- ruled that a Muslim woman could he would run one. Progressive voting guy with a smile pasted on his wear a niqab during a citizenship ers—who had left the Liberals for the face, even as he was pointing an ac- ceremony, the Conservatives imme- NDP over issues such as Trudeau’s cusatory finger at his opponents. He diately said they would appeal, and support of the Conservative security looked inauthentic. Even as Trudeau overnight the identity issue hijacked legislation, Bill C-51—returned to was finding his feet in the first de- the campaign in Quebec. the Liberal fold. The size didn’t mat- bate as well as four subsequent ones, ter. A deficit is a deficit. Period. Mulcair never found his voice. For Mulcair, the niqab was a disaster in Quebec, while Trudeau turned it to For his part, Stephen Harper over- And then Mulcair pledged to pres- his advantage in the rest of Canada. played his hand on the niqab, espe- ent balanced budgets, while Trudeau cially in English-speaking Canada, outflanked him on the left by prom- In Montreal on September 23, Mul- where voters recoiled at his musing ising three years of deficits, includ- cair delivered a carefully calibrated about banning the niqab in the pub- ing $10 billion in each of the first speech in which he noted that a lic service. The Conservative overkill two years of a Liberal government, veiled woman must reveal herself in included an announcement by two before returning to balance in 2019. private to citizenship officials, and is ministers, Chris Alexander and Kel-

Policy 17 lie Leitch, of a snitch line to report dians voted over the long weekend, and only 16 seats. The Conservatives “barbaric cultural practices.” It was many of them as couples and fami- won only 17 per cent, but it was an the precise moment when Red Tories lies, having talked turkey around the efficient vote, delivering 12 seats in gave up on this Conservative Party family dinner table. The advance poll the 418 Quebec City region, while and crossed to the Liberals. turned out to be nearly 20 per cent the Bloc Québécois won 19 per cent of the vote. The final turnout of 17.5 and 10 seats. Coming in the 10th and penultimate million was 68.4 per cent of eligible Call it the mirror effect. Quebec- week of the campaign, it seemed like a voters, up from 61 per cent in 2011 kind of tipping point against the Con- ers looked across the Ottawa River, and and 58 per cent in 2008. It was servatives. By then, a campaign that saw what was happening in Ontario, the highest turnout since 1993. had been to be about the economy, and joined them in electing a Liberal had been transformed into one about And it was Quebec, unexpectedly, majority. values. The economy was the Con- that joined Ontario to hand Trudeau With 184 seats in the new 338-seat servatives’ signature issue, and the his surprise majority. No one saw House, Trudeau didn’t just win gov- announcement of the Trans-Pacific that coming. Partnership free trade agreement on ernment, he made history. October 5 should have played to their In two years, he has taken the Liber- Policy Editor L. Ian MacDonald is also a strength. But while it was Harper’s als from third place to government, a columnist with iPolitics. He is the author best and most prime ministerial mo- remarkable achievement. ment of the campaign, on what the of five books, including the bestselling first George Bush famously called “the Polling in the mid-20s in Quebec as Mulroney: The Making of the Prime vision thing”, it proved to be a one- late as the final weekend, the Liber- Minister and From Bourassa to Bourassa: Wilderness to Restoration. day story rather than a game changer. als won 35 per cent of the vote and [email protected] 40 seats on election day, where most hen came the four-day ad- seat projections gave them no more vance poll over Thanksgiv- than 20 seats. The NDP meanwhile, T ing. Some 3.6 million Cana- was reduced to 25 per cent in Quebec

“Electronic health records are one of the most transformational innovations in health care in a generation.”

— Canada’s provincial and territorial health ministers, September 30th, 2014, Banf

Learn more at BetterHealthTogether.ca 18 Stuff Happens: From Duffy to the Refugee Crisis, from the Niqab to the Snitch Line David McLaughlin

Even the most jaded political observer couldn’t argue “Events, dear boy, events,” former British Prime Minister Harold Mac- that this campaign wasn’t about something. Yes, it was Millan famously said on what he about change, but events that unfolded during the cam- feared most in politics. His spirit paign served to reinforce why it was about change. Break- must have haunted this Canadian ing news that had nothing to do with the government’s election. Three outside events—the Duffy trial, the Syrian refugee cri- ballot question began to lead the daily agenda from the sis, and the Niqab debate—came to Mike Duffy trial onward, and none of it reflected well on dominate media coverage of the cam- Stephen Harper. paign. They threw off-stride two campaigns—the Conservatives and the NDP—and accrued advantage to only one—the Liberals. he 2015 election campaign ter Stephen Harper said the election will be noted not just for its was about “staying the course” with T result—an historic Liberal “proven leadership” on the econo- Three outside party turnaround—but its length. my and security. NDP Leader Tom events—the Duffy The longest campaign since the 19th Mulcair presented a “safe change” century was pretzel-like in its twists mantra of more spending with fis- trial, the Syrian refugee crisis, and turns. From first to third went cal discipline. Liberal Leader Justin and the Niqab debate— the NDP, from third to first went Trudeau mounted his “real change” came to dominate media the Liberals, while the Conservatives charge, targeting the middle class, coverage of the campaign. found themselves first, second, or running not just against the Conser- They threw off-stride two third at various times in the 78-day vatives but the NDP. writ period. campaigns—the The strategic assumptions behind Conservatives and the NDP— For parties, election campaigns are each pitch were obvious and sen- and accrued advantage to battles not just for ballots in the vot- sible. Mr. Harper, running second, ing box; they are battles for the ballot had to keep change from dominating only one—the Liberals. question itself. The party that sets the the election discourse, so he would ballot question—what most voters run on his record. Mulcair, running first, sought to consolidate his front- are voting on—wins. Any election is The timing could not have been worse, runner position by presenting a safe, a challenge to do so, but 2015 posed to have an election in the midst of the un-edgy personality and platform particular challenges due to its very political corruption trial of suspend- to ward off charges that he and his length and unpredictability. Fram- ed Conservative Senator Mike Duffy. party were risky or reckless. Trudeau, ing and retaining the ballot question Actually, it must have been seen as in third, had to supplant the NDP as became significantly more difficult worse to have the election after the the agent of change if his party were as a host of other issues emerged and mid-August trial dates since a shorter to position themselves successfully dominated the campaign coverage. election call would have put the trial as the best or only alternative to the Did these issues move votes or did Harper Conservatives. before the writ, not after. Instead, they just make noise? Harper found himself in the midst of Strategy set, messaging ready, the two weeks of front-page stories head- The ballot question framing was vis- three leaders and parties made ready lined by testimony of his former chief ibly on offer on August 2nd, the day to convince Canadians. What could of staff, Nigel Wright and former legal the election was called. Prime Minis- go wrong? advisor, Benjamin Perrin.

Policy 19 Despite some exculpatory testimony ately to more Syrian refugees fleeing scene when the federal Court of Ap- from Wright that the prime minister war and barbarity on humanitarian peal overturned the federal govern- never actually said the words “good grounds or keep our measured intake ment mid-campaign. to go” on providing a $90,000 pay- process to both ensure security against ment to keep Duffy whole on Senate terrorist infiltration while reminding At the same time, a volatile Bloc residency expenses he improperly others to do more on their part? Québécois animated TV ad aimed at claimed, the legal trial rapidly became the NDP showed a blob of oil from a political trial for the Conservatives. Canadians mostly wanted both a controversial pipeline morphing Each day, Harper was forced to an- done, at the same time. But two in- into a niqab-wearing woman. Quebec swer media questions on the latest terviews—one by the immigration commentators and the country as a minister, Chris Alexander, seeking testimony, questions he could have whole went into a frenzy. avoided if not on the campaign trail. to blame the media for the crisis and With no evidence of direct involve- Canada’s response and the other by Mulcair was caught in the squeeze. ment in the matter, Harper dodged an NDP MP who supposedly handled Defending the right of a woman to that bullet but soon took a ricochet the Syrian family’s immigration file— wear what she wanted, his party be- from new testimony entangling his galvanized a serious policy issue into gan to drop in support first in Que- current chief of staff, Ray Novak, an explosive political one. bec, then in the rest of the country. who was stated to have been aware Alexander’s hapless intervention fu- Losing votes in Quebec meant the of Wright’s personal cheque to Duffy. elled the political crisis without ad- NDP would drop in contention else- This was in direct contradiction to equately explaining either what the where. It was inevitable that it would Harper’s contention that no one else Conservative government had been then have to cede the mantle of in his office knew or was involved in doing or whether it planned to do change to the Liberals, which in time the affair. Novak soon disappeared more. Bad enough, but once a Cana- it did. By the third week of Septem- from the leader’s tour and was sent dian “connection” to the unfortunate ber, the NDP had trended into a close back to campaign headquarters. family was identified via the NDP giv- but clear third place according to Na- ing the mistaken impression that the nos Research. It never recovered. On government had turned away this or about September 24, it began its Each day, Harper was same family (it had not), the Conser- drop from about 30 to 20 per cent on forced to answer vatives were pummelled as heartless. Election Day. media questions on the latest It turned out that the government For the Conservatives, the niqab testimony, questions he could was not far off considered public controversy brought them back into have avoided if not on the opinion on its response. But its in- contention in Quebec, improving ability to articulate a “heart and their seat count from five to 12. But it campaign trail. head” message that conveyed com- created a backlash and alienation in passion with comprehension of other parts of the country that took what was at stake, hobbled them them off their economic message. once more. A Nanos Research track- Two subsequent statements about ing poll showed Conservative sup- banning the niqab in the public ser- port dipping in the immediate after- This was a gift to the opposition. It vice and setting up a “barbaric prac- put the party’s ethics and Harper’s math of events before climbing back up as it solidified its messaging. tices tip line” made the Conservatives governing style back on top of vot- seem mean and Islamaphobic. ers’ minds for a time. Although it was In an election about the economy, summer and a long ways away from security, and change, how did values Elections are unpredictable things. voting day, it made a negative im- come to the fore? A court case and Stuff happens, as we saw in this one, pression on Canadians. He may have an inflammatory party ad made the especially over a 78-day campaign. avoided legal jeopardy with Wright’s difference. testimony, but Harper was now en- Contributing Writer David McLaughlin, meshed in some political jeopardy. The Harper government took a po- a former president of the National sition in 2011 stating that a woman Round Table on the Environment and f a picture is worth a thousand wearing a niqab face veil could not the Economy, served previously as words, the image of a drowned take the oath of citizenship. She must chief of staff to Finance Minister Jim I Syrian toddler in the Mediterra- show her face first. Challenging that Flaherty, NB Premier Bernard Lord, nean surf spawned millions. It also position under the Charter of Rights and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. sparked a vigorous debate amongst and Freedoms was Zunera Hishaq, [email protected] Canadians between heart and head. winning in court in March, 2015. Her Should we open our doors immedi- case then exploded on the election

November/December 2015 20

The Big Three: Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair at the debate on the economy in Calgary on September 17. Trudeau’s position on running a stimulative deﬁcit played well with “change voters.” Adam Scotti Photo Lessons From the Big Armchair: Go Clean or Stay Home Robin V. Sears

The strategies and tactics of the 2015 federal election hort memories are all that keep most politicians” careers a- campaign will be sifted through for years to come by “ S ﬂoat, snorts a cynical Cana- political professionals seeking to replicate the alchemy dian political journalist. Sadly, those of Justin Trudeau’s victory and avoid the unforced er- same short memories bedevil campaign teams who regularly repeat the same rors of his rivals’ losses. Former NDP strategist and dumb strategies that failed the ﬁrst time seasoned political observer Robin Sears dissects a cam- out, or they repeat their previous strategies a second time thinking they will paign that was a disaster for his party but a victory for payoff twice. his country. Perhaps short memories can also be blamed for the many times that cam-

Policy 21 paigners breach granite-hard principles of military and political strat- Mackenzie King and Keith Davey were no doubt egy. Ones like: Never underestimate beaming from above as the Trudeau team rolled out an opponent. And don’t magnify the this latest version of campaigning from the left and govern- offence by bragging publicly about ing from the right so successfully. Shame on the Orange team what an idiot you think he is. As both New Democrats and Conservatives for letting them set and spring the obvious trap. learned to their cost, it allowed Jus- tin Trudeau to vault from “unready lightweight” to prime minister. Ontario down to Bob Rae levels of However, at this juncture it would New Democrats always fear being debt and deficit spending. Ontario is seem the Conservatives loss is far seen as incapable of “managing the now the most indebted sub-national more serious, and will likely have peanut stand” in the eyes of skepti- jurisdiction in the developed world: very long term reverberations. As Na- cal centrist, fiscally cautious voters. $300 billion in debt, adding billions tional Post columnist Andrew Coyne So they, too, failed to understand in new borrowing annually, and eloquently put it: that repeating Jack Layton’s pledge now sending $1 billion a month in of a balanced budget only gave per- “The post-mortems in the press interest payments to their bondmas- mission to the Liberals to sound more are full of the inevitable anony- ters—Ontario’s third largest expen- progressive by promising to plunge mous finger pointing about divi- diture after health and education. Canada into deficit. sions within the campaign team New Democrats should have had a … It isn’t about that… The dam- The nonsense propagated by the usu- more devastating attack on such fis- age that has been done is far ally economically illiterate political cal foolishness. greater than this defeat. It isn’t pundit class that conflates debt and just the Conservatives who have progressive politics is always irritating. Ontario is now the lost favour with the public: it’s But it is an almost universal shorthand conservatism. that New Democrats should have had most indebted sub- a better pushback for. national jurisdiction in the “It has been so long since Conser- vatives put forward any bold or Tommy Douglas and Allan Blakeney developed world: $300 billion in debt, adding radical policy ideas…the public would spin in their graves at the stu- may be forgiven for concluding ei- pidity of promising to sell your gov- billions in new borrowing ther that they don’t exist, or that ernment into servitude to the bond annually, and now sending they are so far beyond the pale as market to fund ongoing programs. not to be worth considering. Like fiscally responsible social demo- $1 billion a month in crats everywhere, they would argue, interest payments to their “Conservatives need to rediscover “Find the sustainable revenue to bondmasters—Ontario’s what it is they stand for... they fund your ongoing programs or don’t third largest expenditure need to sever themselves from launch them…” Setting the GST back the bullying, sneering culture of to pre-Harper levels would have fund- after health and education. the Harperites…It should not be ed everything that the Liberals have New Democrats should have exclusively a liberal or left-wing promised to borrow billions to fund. had a more devastating idea that opponents are to be treated with respect, not insults; Mackenzie King and Keith Davey attack on such fiscal that learning and science are to were no doubt beaming from above foolishness. be valued, not derided; that poli- as the Trudeau team rolled out this tics should bring people together latest version of campaigning from rather than divide them…A poli- the left and governing from the right tics of substantive differences, civ- so successfully. Shame on the Orange Many Canadians will have conclud- illy expressed. team for letting them set and spring ed that there were two winners and the obvious trap. “If I’m not mistaken, that is the two losers on October 19. Canada is formula that just elected Justin perhaps the biggest winner, having fter all, Liberal strategists Da- Trudeau.” vid Herle and Gerry Butts had chosen a strong majority progressive A played the same game many government with the support of a here are the many lessons to times in Ontario campaigns past, large plurality of Canadians. The re- be learned from the attempt including 2014. Economists may be vived Liberal Party is also clearly a big T to introduce the politics of cul- horrified that a party could win suc- winner. The losers are obviously the ture, religion and ethnicity into Ca- cessive majorities while dragging Harper team and the NDP. nadian politics for the first time since

November/December 2015 22 the 1950s. The Harper team had ﬂirt- ed with these toxic messages in 2011, making insinuations about the values that Canadians expected immigrants to share. But in this election, for reasons that they came to regret, they decided to double down, and to challenge both Tom Mulcair and Trudeau on the niqab issue.

That politics should bring people together rather than divide them…A politics of substantive differences, civilly expressed.

The gravity of this lapse in judge- ment is hard to exaggerate. It is a very long time since Canadians have been The identity politics of the niqab hurt the NDP and helped the Conservatives in Quebec, but then the snitch line on “Barbaric Cultural Practices” proved a bridge too far for the Conservatives in exposed to the politics of cultural or the rest of Canada. Flickr photo. religious division. The Liberal Party campaigned against the CCF in BC was pulling levers in their war room sad that the immediate reaction was using vicious anti-Chinese advertis- in 2015. The Tory war machine is quite muted. ing in the 1930s. There was an occa- steeped in experience of the Crosby Neither the Liberal nor the NDP lead- sional whiff of anti-Semitism in the use of race, religion, and ethnicity as er was successful in counter-attacking Duplessis era in Quebec in the 1940s political attack weapons. Their use on the issue, however, on a level that and 50s. But it is only in 2015 that of the niqab bears all the hallmarks placed responsibility where it should an American Republican-style ‘south- of the Crosby approach to the use of ern strategy’—the Nixon era effort to ethnicity as a political wedge. logically have rested, with Stephen whip up anti-black sentiment among Harper. Seeing the devastating impact that working class white voters—has ever the niqab issue was having on espe- The Liberal Party ran a professional being attempted in modern politics and optimistic campaign. They took in Canada. cially the New Democrats in Quebec, Conservative ministers Chris Alexan- the risk of allowing their leader to be Conservative spokesman Kory der and Kellie Leitch raised the tem- seen in unscripted and freeform set- Teneycke vehemently denied any perature further by announcing the tings. They won the support of the role was played in their campaign by launch of the “Barbaric Cultural Prac- media, in part, by an open and acces- the egregious Australian race politics tices” tipline, claimed to be for the sible style, permitting long and free- practitioner, Lynton Crosby. Key use of brutalized Muslim women to flowing press conferences. Perform- Tory war room veterans, however, report their abuse. Now, apart from ing without a safety net, Trudeau trained under Crosby in the 2007 the absurdity of suggesting that there gained confidence steadily during the and 2010 campaigns in Australia. is an inadequacy in existing chan- campaign. They were insiders as Crosby’s cli- nels for any abused woman to report The lesson for future campaign strat- ent, Australian conservative Prime attacks, the snitch line message was egists is clear: provide a new leader Minister John Howard, successfully insulting to the Muslim community with a strong team of advisers and used ‘refugee boat people’ as a cam- as a whole. counsel and then give them a chance paign wedge. Some were also in- to fail, because that’s the best way volved in Boris Johnson’s campaigns To place the offence in appropri- to build their confidence and the re- in London, which Crosby led, where ate context, imagine if a Canadian spect of a target audience. “English values” was the dog-whistle minister of the Crown had made a used by the UK Conservative candi- similar announcement about Or- date for mayor. thodox Jewish women, or Buddhist he Conservative campaign was novitiate priests. It is reassuring that a disaster on too many levels So it is a moot point whether Crosby Canadians rejected the toxic bait, but T to itemize, but there is perhaps

Policy 23 one over-arching lesson from their Kerr’s Legacy—begins with one un- erence, they also need to get better strategic failure. When any institu- shakeable principle: never repeat last at anticipating the attacks they will tion decides to promote a long-time year’s strategy. face, and developing strong counters number two to the senior leadership, to them, as well as developing plat- there needs to be both supervision The team rigorously analyzes their form planks attractive to key audi- and a Plan B. As the corporate world own performance and their peers’ ences—well in advance of writ day. has seen many times, number twos observed strengths and weaknesses, The Liberals need to ensure that the are often at the top of their growth from the previous year’s games in the thousands of new volunteers and potential, and crash as the new boss. off-season. Then they start to build a campaign lessons are successfully The late Sen. Doug Finley was always new strategy, from scratch, each time. turned into a deeper, broader and the final decision maker in the Harp- It’s hard to throw out old favorites, more well-trained national party ap- er era on campaign strategy. Even as but that discipline has kept them at paratus. Their success in Ontario, ill as he was in 2011, his “wise elder” the top of their sport for longer than for example, would simply not have function was an important check any other team in any other sport. happened without the support of the against dumb ideas and deviations provincial party’s superb campaign from strategic discipline. The lesson for future apparatus. They also need to get bet- His replacement by a feuding set of campaign strategists ter at integrating ground organiza- lieutenants, nominally under the di- is clear: provide a new tion technologies with the centre. rection of Jenni Bryne, turned out to leader with a strong team of But then none of the parties do that have been a major error. Campaign advisers and counsel and as well as the best US campaigns did staff, candidates and eventually even four years ago—and the Americans the media, became aware of the ten- then give them a chance to are far more advanced today. sions, and later open warfare, among fail, because that’s the best The overarching campaign lesson for Byrne, Guy Giorno, Ray Novak, and way to build their the Conservatives is the need for a Teneycke. But internal knife-fights are confidence and the respect bigger tent. Now shut out of either hardly unknown in campaign man- seats or organization—with the ex- agement politics, and some campaigns of a target audience. ception of an enclave around Quebec manage to deliver success in spite of City—from the Ottawa River to the them. This one failed so spectacularly Atlantic Ocean, and weak everywhere for an entirely different reason. in urban Canada, the Conservatives geographic base has shrunk badly. A seasoned Tory campaign strategist, he Tory campaign team would They won a plurality of support only and long time rugby fan, observed have benefited from studying at the very launch of the foolishly among high-school educated, low the All-Blacks approach to en- stretched campaign period, that he T income, white male rural and small suring victory after victory. Instead, was concerned that his colleagues town voters; not a demographic base the Conservatives ran a dull and had fallen into a very bad strategic with a future. gimmicky campaign, one that might trap: fighting the last war. The temp- have survived a normal 37-day elec- A new Conservative government will tation to re-run what worked before tion. But in the end, in a campaign have to emerge from a hard-right Al- is, of course, very human and may more than twice as long, they were berta-based foundation and angry old seem almost prudent and sound: reduced to game show stunts and white guys. Needless to say the next “Why change something that isn’t rallies with allies as dubious as the leader should also come with an au- broken?!” Ford brothers. thentic smile. But as this old Tory pointed out, in The NDP needs to use the next four This campaign has one over-arching championship level play, in politics years building a campaign infrastruc- lesson for which every Canadian or in rugby, it is always wrong to re- ture up to the task of running a real should be saying a small prayer of peat yourself. Your opponents know national campaign. The 2015 model thanks, however. your old playbook, and they will was not. The classic failing campaign have developed counters to each fa- There is still no path to victory em- weaknesses were all clearly visible: vorite campaign gambit. He cited the ploying the politics of division and constipated feedback and message superlative achievements of the New hate in Canada. delivery loops, weak and sometimes Zealand All-Blacks, that tiny coun- inappropriate resource allocation, Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, a try’s international rugby superstars, strategic paralysis and departmental principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group, victorious year after year. silos, and finally, creative and speech is a former national director of the NDP Their approach to staying on top— messaging out of sync with emerging during the Broadbent years. magnificently analyzed in James campaign challenges. For future ref- [email protected]

November/December 2015 24

Transition 2015: Perfecting the ‘How?’ of Governing Kevin Lynch

The Langevin Block across from Parliament Hill, seat of power in Canada, where transitions of government are managed by the Privy Council Ofﬁce. Policy photo

Government transitions are fter a long election campaign, issues that must be dealt with; from the implementation of the new gov- times of renewal, not just Canadians have decided on the make-up of the new ernment’s policy platform to longer- A term policy issues; from federal-pro- in who governs us and their Parliament and who will govern us. priorities for policy, but also How they should govern us is an is- vincial relations to relations with our global neighbours; from security and sue much less discussed, yet equally in how they choose to gov- defence issues to foreign policy chal- vital to our long-term future. ern. A new mandate also lenges and opportunities. Transitions are times for renewal, provides the occasion for a The transition process also provides not only in political terms, but in an invaluable window on how well fresh look at how well our how we look at the world around our system of governance and its us and the future ahead of us. The system of governance is core institutions—Parliament and its public service provides the new gov- working, where it is falling committees, Cabinet and its minis- ernment of the day with “transition ters, the Prime Minister’s Ofﬁce and short, and to make adjust- books” that deal with all aspects of its span of control, the public ser- governing—a huge and valuable ments as required. It is time vice—are functioning today. for a governance reboot. nonpartisan exercise. These sub- stance of the transition brieﬁngs Democratic governance is about more typically ranges from the machinery than the ability to hold free and fair of government itself to short-term elections. It requires strong institu-

Policy 25 tions. It demands respect for the rule Transition brieﬁngs typically ranges from the of law and those who oversee it. It needs a system of checks and balances, machinery of government itself to short-term set by either constitution, convention issues that must be dealt with; from the implementation or both. It requires a professional and of the new government’s policy platform to longer-term effective public service. It listens to the diverse and articulate voices of an in- policy issues. dependent media. And it is anchored by an informed and involved citizenry.

o be sure, the context for gov- want to make a difference for their is not knowledge. The capacity of erning in Canada and else country. And, as the panel report sets public sector policy analysis to better T where is shifting. The “new out, it faces challenges today. utilize big data, big analytics and big normal” is a world of pervasive glo- computing power offers enormous The report puts forward a number of balization, relentless competition, potential for new insights in the recommendations designed, essen- hyper-connectivity, perpetual inno- many realms of government. More- tially, to let the Public Service of Can- vation, aging demographics and ris- over, public service policy thinking ada fulfil its intended role. Hopefully, ing volatility and risk. The role for should be more collaborative in its these proposals will enjoy broad-based government is certainly not lessened structure, both within government political and public support and be by this shifting context, indeed quite and outside, tapping the public and acted upon with alacrity while, at the the opposite, although the nature of its vast “internet of ideas.” same time, the public service itself will government’s role needs to evolve to move forward with renewal. As a country, we have to be bolder in reflect these new realities. our policy thinking if we are to thrive How well it is evolving to fulfill its My intent here is to reflect on the “new in this new global normal, and the role is the focus of a recent report by global normal” and the operational public service should be able to con- the Public Policy Forum’s Panel on opportunities and obstacles it presents tribute to these discussions. Whether Governance. The panel believes our for Westminster public services every- it is how to re-invigorate our long- system of governance, which is core where, and in so doing, consider five term growth potential, how to get to how we shape our collective val- areas where the greatest scope for in- productivity growth going again, or ues and goals as a nation, is in urgent novation and change may lie. how best to make a trade and invest- need of a reboot. ment pivot to the emerging econom- irst, in a world that is exceed- ic powerhouses in Asia led by China, his renewal, in the panel’s ingly complex and intercon- we need diverse longer term policy view, does not require consti- F nected, deep and broad policy views and analysis in the public do- T tutional amendments or pro- capacity is a basic necessity of effec- main, and spirited public discourse. tracted federal-provincial negotia- tive government. Policy obeys the ba- tions, but it does require change. sic law of supply and demand—with- econd, in a world experiencing The report focused on the need for out both the supply of high quality a sharp spike in volatility and change in how Parliament and its policy analysis and options by the S risk, risk management—not risk committees work: in how balance public service and the demand for aversion—is the smart response by is re-established between centraliza- evidence-based policy advice and op- government. Risks today are more tion in the PMO and delegation to tions by the government, the market systemic, more global, more inter- ministers and departments; in how for public service policy capacity sim- connected and more unpredictable the public service interacts with the ply does not function. in their diffusion than ever before. government, Parliament and the These characteristics are clear in the public; and, in how the responsibili- Policy advice by the public service World Economic Forum’s 2015 rank- ties and accountabilities of political should not be a monopoly—there ing of the top 10 global risks which staff are clarified. It emphasizes that are many sources of advice available include: interstate conflicts; high good governance is not an end in it- to government. What it should be is and sustained unemployment, par- self, but a means towards achieving value-added to other sources of ad- ticularly for youth; failure of climate a robust democracy for the benefit of vice in terms of its impartiality, time- change adaptation; water crises; cy- all Canadians. liness, analytic quality, broad global ber attacks; asset bubbles; terrorist perspective and long-term focus. attacks; social instability; food crises; The public service of Canada plays a and, fiscal crises. core role in our Westminster system Public service policy advice should es- of governance. It is nonpartisan, serv- chew short-termism, which is such a For any institution in a period of ing governments past, present and challenge in so many aspects of busi- change and churn, whether a private future; it is permanent, providing a ness, politics and journalism today. sector firm or a government, risk- longer term policy and operational Fearless policy advice must be based aversion paradoxically amplifies risk perspective; it is merit based, attract- on extensive information and de- rather than minimizing it. It is too ing competent professionals who tailed analysis—multiplied anecdote often an approach to minimize short-

November/December 2015 26 term inconvenience while maximiz- lending to mobile payments to robo- The reality, however, is that the public ing long term pain. advisors to crypto currencies, finan- has already made the switch, particu- cial innovation has the potential to larly the younger generation, and the improve the efficient allocation of relevance of government communica- As a country, we capital to support growth, to reduce tions is a real and present issue. The frictions and costs in the facilitation have to be bolder in upsides of more open communica- of payments, to transform the collec- our policy thinking if we are tions utilizing social media are clear: tion and analysis of data for decision to thrive in this new global making, and to broaden the accessi- an opportunity to engage Canadians normal, and the public bility of financial services. on issues in real time, to listen and service should be able to interact as well as broadcast, to create The FinTech companies driving this new virtual networks, to give voice to contribute to these financial innovation, usually inno- government science. The downsides vative start ups, are targeting finan- discussions. are loss in central control of commu- cial intermediation functions for nications and lack of a single message. innovation, not challenging the institutions themselves. Their tools of The choice seems obvious. the FinTech trade are new platform ifth, in a world of rapidly shift- Effective risk management is a key technologies, huge scalability, big ing career options, we need to differentiator for long-term success data, cloud computing, and custom- in a changing world—whether you er-centric business models. F make working for government as are confronting technology risk, exciting as working at, say, Google or geopolitical risk, economic forecast Which raises the obvious question: Facebook, and as meaningful as join- risk, security risk, social license risk Why not “GovTech”? Many of the ing a social enterprise such as WorldVi- or policy risk. Risk management is a core functions of government should sion or the United Way. Challenging, be equally amenable to such innova- strategy for long-term gain while ac- to be sure, but also doable; provided we tions, and in so doing reduce public cepting that risk and return are cor- update the brand promise. related and, since risks cannot be sector costs, increase government pro- avoided, they should be analytically ductivity and enhance the public’s ex- The renewed brand must be about managed. Part of this entails reduc- perience of dealing with government. the potential of public service work ing ever-expanding compliance re- There has been some such experi- to make a real societal difference, and gimes and their web of rules, and sub- mentation in the healthcare and this requires public service managers stituting risk management tools such education fields, but no one would to delegate responsibility and encour- as scenario analysis, stress testing and describe Canada today as a leader in age innovation. It is about the pub- resiliency planning into government this field. There is likely even more lic validation of the role and work of programs, services and operations. scope in the back-office functions of public servants by the government government such as tax administra- Good in concept, but challenging in and the public at large. And it is about tion, transfer and pension adminis- practice, and particularly so in gov- active, not passive, recruitment of the tration, program delivery and infor- ernment, where the negative conse- next generation of Canadian leaders mation delivery. An added benefit of quences of realized risks too often being a leader in GovTech is that the to give a public service career consid- outweigh the positive reactions to re- pioneer companies developing these eration, not for the pension but be- alized returns. A quandary to be sure, innovative technologies and services cause the country needs their talents. but risk management lies at the heart will have enormous export potential of innovation, and innovation is cen- Simply put, a nonpartisan and em- to market these products to govern- tral to making government more pro- ments in other countries. powered public service, one that is ductive, more connected, and more attractive to Canada’s best, brightest relevant—so everyone wins if a better ourth, in a world in which the and most entrepreneurial talents, one balance can be achieved. revolution in communications where excellence is the benchmark technologies is totally trans- hird, in a world where techno- F and one in which risks are to be man- forming how people interact, govern- logical innovation is increas- aged, not avoided, in the pursuit of ment communications should join ing exponentially, govern- innovation, is one that can contribute T the revolution. This is about attitude ment should be at the leading—not enormously to Canada’s long-term and approach, not just technology. the trailing—edge of innovation ad- success as a robust democracy, strong aptation. In the financial world, as a Social media is disruptive—multiple economy and vibrant society. comparator, “FinTech” has captured voices, many platforms, competing the imagination of the press and narratives, hugely decentralized, total- Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch, consumers, and the attention of in- ly interactive, very dynamic. All this Vice Chair of BMO Financial Group, is vestors, incumbents and regulators. is challenging for governments for a a former Clerk of the Privy Council, and From crowd-sourcing to peer-to-peer variety of reasons, but also rewarding. former deputy minister of Finance.

Policy 27 Restoring Trust in Public Institutions David Mitchell

Of all the elements of Stephen Harper’s leadership style that will deﬁne his legacy, his relationship to and deployment of power are what have changed the way Ottawa works. In the past nine years, power has been amassed and centralized in the Prime Minister’s Ofﬁce, marginalizing both cabinet ministers and the public servants who ad- vise them. Not only has Justin Trudeau promised to change that; he says his father started it.

t was one of the more remark- pected rebuke of his father’s ap- able moments in a long cam- proach to politics and governing, the I paign. A poised Justin Trudeau interview also suggested what Justin was being interviewed by CBC’s Pe- Trudeau viewed as a key challenge for ter Mansbridge. When asked about Canadian democracy: restoring trust criticisms he and others had levelled in public institutions. at the Conservative government for its lack of openness and transparency, he responded with an observa- The key will be tion that clearly caught Mansbridge whether our new off guard. Acknowledging the trend prime minister can buck the in recent years towards more control from the Prime Minister’s Ofﬁce, seemingly irreversible trend Trudeau noted, “Actually it can be of centralization of traced as far back as my father, who authority, which, as he kicked it off in the ﬁrst place…” acknowledged, his father A surprised Mansbridge was obvious- began almost half a ly expecting a partisan attack on Ste- phen Harper, not a critique of Pierre century ago. Elliot Trudeau, the Liberal leader’s own father. But the younger Trudeau seemed to relish the moment, adding: How to achieve this, and whether it’s “…I actually quite like the symmetry of me being the one who’d end that. actually possible, now become criti- My father had a particular way of do- cally important questions for the new ing things; I have a different way, and government in Ottawa. Expectations his was suited to his time and mine is are high—and so are the hurdles suited to my time. I believe that we ahead. Nevertheless, the Liberal Par- need to trust Canadians. I believe that ty’s election platform and Trudeau’s it’s not just about restoring Canadi- public statements provide clues to ans’ trust in government by demon- how these governance challenges strating trust towards them, I think might be approached. we get better public policy when it’s To be sure, the new government was done openly and transparently…” elected with an array of promises fo- In addition to providing an unex- cused on new policies and reforms.

November/December 2015 28 On the subject of governance, these include: electoral reform; a com- Although Justin Trudeau mused about the controlling mitment to evidence-based policy; instincts of his father, his more immediate reference establishing a chief science officer; point is obviously the government of his predecessor, Stephen more free votes in the House of Com- Harper, broadly known for taking the centralization of mons; not resorting to omnibus bills designed to prevent parliament from authority to unprecedented levels. doing its job; engaging young Cana- dians; espousing more openness and transparency; and that old chestnut, Senate reform. public service, there are consequenc- Here’s an indicator that we might es—many of them unintended. And look for: will ministers appoint their hile the list of specific— when important public institutions own political advisers? Under the and some not-so-specific such as these are consistently under- Conservative government all politi- W —promises is broad and mined, our system of governance suf- cal staff were appointed by and re- impressive, perhaps as important is fers a loss of confidence and public ported to the PMO. the tone and anticipated manage- trust. This can’t be easily reversed. ment style of the new administration. And here the contrast with n election night, Justin Trudeau’s determin- the previous government appears to Trudeau invoked the spirit ation to keep his of another Canadian prime be quite dramatic. Prime Minister O cabinet small and gender- Trudeau has promised a more open, minister from a century ago, Wil- accessible and collegial approach to fred Laurier. He referred to his “sun- balanced represents a clear governance. Will he be able to deliv- ny ways”—one of Laurier’s political path towards the “real er and sustain this? trademarks. Today, Prime Minister change” of his election Trudeau’s own optimism and positive The key will be whether our new attitude should not be underestimat- manifesto. Will he be able to prime minister can buck the seem- sustain these changes? And ingly irreversible trend of centraliza- ed in setting a new and different ap- tion of authority, which, as he ac- proach in our capital. However, there will we see an actual return knowledged, his father began almost are three specific areas that require his to cabinet government, with administration’s focused attention in half a century ago. This is not unique ministers providing a to Canada; in fact, it’s evident in order to re-energize the Westminster most western democracies. Global- model of governance in Canada. counterbalance to un- ization, technology and social media 1. Restore cabinet government. The restricted prime ministerial have increased the ambitions of gov- prime minister has already signalled authority? ernments trying to respond quickly that he is unafraid to surround him- and decisively to emerging issues. self with smart, competent women Generally, this has resulted in much and men. Clearly, his intention is more centralized control. to provide a more collegial style of 2. Empower parliamentary com- In Canada, while this tendency has leadership, delegating responsibility mittees. Parliament has suffered been reinforced decade upon decade, and accountability to his ministers. greatly in recent years, with the it’s widely agreed that political power But will cabinet actually meet on a combination of expense scandals in Ottawa has become increasingly regular basis and act as a decision- concentrated in recent years. And al- making body? This would certainly in the Senate and the atmosphere though Justin Trudeau mused about be at odds with recent practice. In- of a permanent election campaign the controlling instincts of his father, deed, the description of cabinet as in the House of Commons. Reform- his more immediate reference point a mere focus group for the PM has ing question period and allowing is obviously the government of his often seemed apt. for more free votes, as promised by the Liberals, would be positive predecessor, Stephen Harper, broadly Justin Trudeau’s determination to steps. However, the change that known for taking the centralization keep his cabinet small and gender- holds the greatest potential to im- of authority to unprecedented levels. balanced represents a clear path to- prove the relevance of this flagging When a powerful PMO appropriates wards the “real change” of his elec- institution would be providing all strategy, management and deci- tion manifesto. Will he be able to greater independence and author- sion-making unto itself, there is an sustain these changes? And will we ity to parliamentary committees. inevitable cost. When a prime min- see an actual return to cabinet gov- ister and his political staff attempt to ernment, with ministers providing a To be fair, the Liberal election plat- control and run not only the PMO counterbalance to unrestricted prime form addresses this issue by propos- but also cabinet, Parliament and the ministerial authority? ing that committee chairs be elected

Policy 29 by a secret ballot of all MPs, the same comfortable. Public servants have times. Usually, it’s only in retrospect, way the Speaker is now elected. This also been blamed when things go years afterward, that we can take stock would allow less interference and wrong, even when the directions and gain such a perspective. Critics, direction from PMO. However, we being followed clearly emanated supporters and historians will there- should go much further. from political levels. fore need to bide their time if they Committee chairs and members The public service is an important in- wish to accurately assess the successes should be elected for the four-year stitution providing a comparative ad- and failures of the Conservative gov- life of a parliament, providing better vantage for our country. No govern- ernment led by Stephen Harper. and more independent scrutiny of ment can long afford a demoralized As for the new Liberal administra- the executive branch of government. or demotivated bureaucracy. Howev- tion in Ottawa, still enjoying the And committees should be provided er, some clarity and commitment to honeymoon euphoria of victory with more resources in order to reach its essential role is required, especial- and marching now with confidence out effectively to Canadians, engag- ly with respect to delivery of services into its first 100 days in office, the ing them not only on the issues of and policy development. Ideally, this joys of success and inevitable failures the day, but also on issues of medium would come directly from the prime both lie ahead. But it’s interesting to to long-term policies. minister and be codified in the form speculate on how the political style An indicator of success: the position of a charter or by legislation. and managerial approach of Justin of committee chair will be almost as The public service should become Trudeau might one day be judged. If coveted as a cabinet post (often the recognized not only as the largest he achieves even a modicum of suc- case in the United Kingdom). employer in Canada but as the em- cess in restoring trust in important institutions of governance such as 3. Rethink the public service. Cana- ployer of choice for a new generation cabinet, parliament and the public da has long been respected for the of emerging leaders. service, he will have defied the domi- professionalism of its permanent, The new government led by Prime nant centralizing tendencies that non-partisan public service. How- Minister Trudeau has already estab- started in Canada with his father. ever, during recent years its repu- lished some ambitious goals and new tation has been diminished. The policy directions. The success of any Contributing Writer David Mitchell relationship between public ser- government can be judged by how is an author, political historian and vants and political staff has often well its priorities are aligned with the public policy consultant. been unclear and sometimes un- desires of citizens and the tenor of the [email protected]

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November/December 2015 30

Justin Trudeau canoeing on the Bow River in Calgary on the morning of the second leaders’ debate. Adam Scotti photo. Liberal Values Are Canadian Values Martin Goldfarb

This wasn’t just a “throw the bums out” election. As ustin Trudeau was elected with traditional Liberal values driving the dean of Canadian pollsters who made his reputa- J his choices and the historical Lib- tion taking the pulse of Canadians for Justin Trudeau’s eral coalition of voters and regions of father, Marty Goldfarb knows a lot about Canadian the country rallying to his message. values. For nearly a decade, Stephen Harper made Historically, Liberals won elections when Quebec and Ontario were on our national conversation about boutique tax breaks, the same page. Liberals won elections systematically violating the Charter of Rights and, when they won at least half the seats in ﬁnally, snitching on your neighbour. Justin Trudeau Atlantic Canada and Quebec and two- thirds of the seats in Ontario. When promised a return to the traditional Canadian values this happens, they form the national of economic equality, inclusivity and optimism. government. Nothing is new about this. And, it is exactly what happened in 2015. The traditional Liberal coalition came together again, attracted by Liberal values.

Policy 31 In the 2011 election, many in Que- bec voted for the NDP as a protest Liberals won elections when they won at least half against Stephen Harper while de- the seats in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and two- serting the Bloc Québécois, but they thirds of the seats in Ontario. When this happens, they form were never truly NDPers. In 2015, the national government. Nothing is new about this. And, it Quebecers realized that voting for the NDP left them out of the deci- is exactly what happened in 2015. The traditional Liberal sion-making in Ottawa, and Que- coalition came together again, attracted by Liberal values. bec wanted to be part of national decision-making—not relegated to the fringe. When people in Quebec realized—halfway through the election—that the NDP was not gaining on the Liberal Party. The Liberal Canada, all of these people were strength in English Canada, they be- brand never died. It was an embar- united in voting Liberal. rassment for a short period of time gan to swing away and switch, espe- Above all, these values are exem- under these leaders but Liberal roots cially in urban areas, to the Liberals. plified in the Charter of Rights and and Liberal values endured. The Freedoms. Canadians love the Char- This is the real reason that NDP sup- party never changed its colours, its ter, despite Harper’s concerted ef- port collapsed in Quebec. Their sup- symbols or its name. The historical forts over the past 10 years to dimin- port of a woman’s right to wear a connection of Justin Trudeau’s Lib- ish the Charter both in the courts niqab is a red herring. After all, Tom eral Party to the past is clear. and as an element of our national Mulcair and Justin Trudeau took the Justin Trudeau reintroduced Canadi- narrative. same stance on this issue. ans to those values: trust, tolerance, Canadians were uncomfortable with Quebecers wanted both a change of transparency, peace, justice, prosper- these Harper policies: government, as well as to be part of ity, opportunity, fiscal responsibil- the new government. When Que- ity, social justice and economic na- s BEINGASNITCHSOCIETY bec and Ontario come together they tionalism. These are historical. It is form an axis that controls who gets these values that drove the decisions s DISCRIMINATINGAGAINSTANYONE elected to form the federal govern- that Trudeau made during the cam- group; ment. This is the nexus of the Liberal paign, for instance: s EXCESSIVEINTERESTINSECURITY federal strength in Canada and one s !NNOUNCINGTHAT#ANADAWOULD especially at the expense of that Brian Mulroney used as a model accept 25,000 Syrian refugees personal freedom; for his victories. For a time, under Mulroney, a fluently bilingual Que- s 3TATINGTHATWEARINGTHENIQABISA s ATTACKINGTHE3UPREME#OURTAND becer himself, Quebecers connected women’s right the Charter. with the Progressive Conservatives. Mulroney also won a large portion s 3UPPORTINGFUNDINGOFTHE#"# anadians experimented with of Ontario as a Progressive Conser- s (ELPINGSTUDENTSlNANCETHEIR the Harper Conservatives for vative. However, Progressive Con- education C 10 years and then decided servatives are not the Harper Con- they could not live with those values. servatives. Their values are not that s !NNOUNCINGTHAT#00WOULDSTART This is not about the natural fatigue different than historic Liberal values. again at 65, not 67 with a government after 10 years. Ca- nadians decided Harper Conservative s $OUBLINGINFRASTRUCTURESPENDING Quebec today has a Liberal mayor values do not reflect what they think in Montreal and a Liberal provincial s #OMMITTINGTOBUILDMORENAVY of as the Canadian way. On Octo- government, which has reached out ships in Canada ber 19, Canadians rejected: building to the Liberal government in Ontar- more prisons; thinking there is a ter- io. These two provincial Liberal gov- These are decisions driven by Liberal rorist on every corner; expanding the ernments have similar values that values—values that drove Pierre El- security state; rejecting science as a drive the choices they make. liot Trudeau’s decision making, that decision-making tool and muzzling drove Paul Martin’s decision making government research professionals; anadians’ collective values and drove Jean Chrétien’s decision expanding CSIS; and taking citizen- have not changed. The Lib- making. They appeal to traditional ship away from dual citizens who C eral brand continues to res- Liberal voters, the young, those over have committed certain crimes. onate with Canadians. The public 65 and new Canadians. Whether may have been uncomfortable with you look at the results of the election Liberals see a benefit to government. Michael Ignatieff and Stéphane Dion by gender, by income, or by ethnic- Liberals do not see government as but they never completely gave up ity in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic the enemy of the people. Liberals see

November/December 2015 32 government as a force for the good Liberals see a this promise under Justin Trudeau is Better is Always Possible. This exem- of the collective. Liberals spend for beneﬁt to the good of society. Harper’s end pliﬁes the Canadian dream. goal was to reduce government with government. Liberals do What Harper did not display was the a fundamental belief that expendi- not see government as the ethic of responsible citizenship and tures are evil. Harper tried to shift enemy of the people. that is what the Liberal brand has Canadian values and he failed. Liberals see government as stood for in the past and continues This election attracted 68 per cent of a force for the good of the to stand for today. Conservatives will need to rethink their values. the population to vote, up from 61 collective. Liberals spend

per cent in 20011, and 58 per cent for the good of society. Martin Goldfarb, the dean of in 2008—a return to levels not seen Canadian pollsters, was the Liberal in more than 20 years. Because this Party’s pollster during the Pierre was an election about values rather A brand is a promise you make con- Trudeau years. He is Chairman of than speciﬁc policies, more Canadi- sistently over time. Liberal values Goldfarb Marketing. mgoldfarb@ ans came out to vote again. drive the Liberal brand promise and goldfarbmarketing.com

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Policy 33

St. John’s in Newfoundland, where the Liberals’ clean sweep of Atlantic Canada’s 32 seats began on October 19. Istock photo The Atlantic: Anatomy of a Clean Sweep Charles J. McMillan

Justin Trudeau won Atlantic Canada not with money hange vs. Stay the Course, In- or tactics but with the classic investments of time and experience vs. Tested Lead- C ership—these were the slogans attention. As his longtime friend and adviser, Charles framing the narrative of Canada’s 15th McMillan, points out, Brian Mulroney thought Atlan- election since Pierre Trudeau came tic Canada was important enough to win that when to power in 1968. While the surprising majority government achieved by he ran, as newly chosen leader, for a seat in the House, Justin Trudeau may confound the war he ran in Central Nova. That riding, along with every rooms of the NDP and Conservatives, the seeds of his victory were planted other Tory sure thing in the region, went to the Liber- in Atlantic Canada, as the new leader als this time. The blame for that, writes McMillan, started the arduous process of rebuild- goes to Stephen Harper. ing his party, from the ground up. Un- like in the other regions of Canada, the outcome was never in doubt—the Nanos nightly tracking polls, after all, showed the Liberals ranged from 45-

November/December 2015 34 55 per cent—so the only question was the seat count. All four provin- Indeed, Harper made a fatal decision to employ a cial governments quietly lent their William Gladstone metaphor of balanced budget and support, three were Liberal and the low taxes in the areas of Conservative support, like suburban fourth had former Premier Danny and rural Canada, where the economy is soft and Williams, extending hell and fury to- unemployment is high, particularly for young people. wards Stephen Harper.

Harper sowed the seeds of his own destruction in Atlantic Canada, not simply because of his early and dis- servative who championed the re- of winning campaigns, helped but missive comments about the region’s gion, and no strategy to take the 10 was not decisive: the Duffy trial and “culture of dependency,” but because seats that Harper first won and build court revelations filling the airwaves of ministers who did little to build a a regional base of 18-20. Few of his since August, deeply motivated the forward-looking organization with patronage appointments or Senate ABH supporters. Candidates like for- compelling candidates, a strategy to choices added to Conservative sup- mer Tory MLA Peter Penashue run- win incumbent seats from the Liber- port, and some (such as Mike Duffy) ning in Labrador exposed the weak- als, and a capacity to listen to voters, were deep distractions. As incum- ness of the Harper slate. premiers, and business stakehold- bents like Gerald Keddy or MacKay ers. Indeed, when asked to speak at decided to step aside, there was no During September, Harper evange- the well-attended funeral in Truro, desire to attract new stars. lists with next to zero resonance in of former Nova Scotia Senator Fred Atlantic Canada, such as Jason Ken- Dickson, a Conservative partisan Even worse, Harper and his war room ny, Pierre Poilievre, and Chris Alex- with friends in all parties across the catastrophically underestimated Jus- ander, defended Harper’s approach region, Harper not only said pub- tin Trudeau and the Liberal team. His to defence issues, refugees from Syr- licly that Fred wasn’t his friend but campaign spokesman, Kory Teneycke, ia, and Trudeau’s deficit spending added,“I have no friends.” In Atlan- telling the media before the first on infrastructure in a region where tic Canada, where communities are debate,“if (Trudeau) comes on stage good infrastructure ties the region close and friendships are lifelong, it with his pants on, he will probably together. Their lame pronounce- was a telling comment. exceed expectations,”typified both ments, tied to cracks in the vaunted Conservative hubris and the lack of For Harper, the headwinds in Atlan- Conservative war room, attracted lo- discipline from the top. Indeed, Harp- tic Canada were brutal. Local and na- cal media attention, and the barring er made a fatal decision to employ a tional polling showed Conservative veterans of groups from a Harper William Gladstone metaphor of bal- support in the low 20s for the past rally in Fredericton inflamed voter’s anced budget and low taxes in the three years, and in a region where in- distrust of peevish, central control. areas of Conservative support, like cumbency is a decided advantage, the That paranoia reinforced in the pub- suburban and rural Canada, where 13 Tory seats were all in play, includ- lic mind the Conservatives’ rejection the economy is soft and unemploy- ing the three in Nova Scotia, where of Ches Crosbie (son of John Crosbie, ment is high, particularly for young Conservative members, including Pe- who had worked tirelessly behind the people. Paradoxically, in the areas of ter MacKay in Central Nova, decided scenes to get Danny Williams and Harper weakness, urban and multi- not to reoffer. Further, party insiders Stephen Harper on speaking terms) cultural cities, the economy is strong, knew from recent provincial elec- as a candidate. The last two weeks in mainly due to low interest rates and tions—three won by the Liberals— Atlantic Canada prophesied the pos- residential construction. that Trudeau had a chance in all 32 sible results nationally. seats but 26-27 were very likely. The By contrast, well before the election NDP hoped to gain three and Harper was called, Trudeau toured the re- he campaign strategists for hoped to hold at least three Cabinet gion regularly, taking his family on each party ended up with to- members—Gail Shea in Cardigan, holidays to Atlantic Canada, and T tally different tactics. Mulcair Keith Ashfield in Fredericton, and at one farm picnic in 2014 at Law- toured the region sparingly, hoping Bernard Valcourt in Edmunston. rence MacAulay’s Cardigan, PEI rid- to save the lone NDP seat in Halifax ing, a packed crowd of 5,000 people and that three-way splits might win ut other factors added to the showed up. Trudeau, reflecting on a few seats elsewhere. Harper visited headwinds. Changes to the previous leaders of various parties, early, and then late in the campaign, B Employment Insurance Act started the rebuilding process at the defensively visiting ridings held by made it more difficult for seasonal riding level, attracting well-known Conservatives, including—in the last workers to receive benefits. In no local candidates, many not overly days—Fredericton, only to have the province was there a leading Con- partisan. Luck, that glorious feature Conservative candidate lose his seat.

Policy 35 By contrast, as Liberal support cus, despite repeated visits by the ern Canada, he will not introduce climbed daily, if only incrementally Prime Minister in support of incum- policies like the National Energy Pro- in Quebec, the Liberal team put the bent Scott Armstrong. gram that hurt a region and a prov- chartered jet into high gear, visiting ince so dramatically. The Atlantic The 32-seat sweep, plus the Gaspé Tory and NDP incumbent ridings, Caucus has an unprecedented oppor- riding representing Magdalen Islands with volunteers organizing huge ral- tunity to introduce bold initiatives (orginally part of the Catholic Diocese lies and Trudeau drumming home to reduce or eliminate their have-not his ballot question: real change. The of Charlottetown), once represented provincially by René Lévesque (who status, such as building on traditional bandwagon effect shrewdly played off strengths but becoming an exporting media reaction to a man in motion was born in Campbellton, NB) paral- superstar in energy, agriculture, edu- asking for support from dejected and leled the huge gains across the coun- cation, and food products. rejected Conservatives. That and the try. Trudeau’s victory was now in the Liberal advertising blitz, timed per- history books, coming from third to Timing, as Bobby Kennedy noted, is ﬁrst, winning so many new seats in fectly for maximum impact, turned everything in politics. Justin Trudeau, all provinces, rebuilding Liberal for- the election into a two-way race. By a student of politics, timed his support tunes in their base, French Canada, election day, the decision was easy: perfectly, and has a clear mandate for and attracting immense support in Harper or Trudeau. change. To the world, the new PM urban Canada. Unlike his father in said that Canada is back. To Ottawa, In Atlantic Canada, many Conserva- 1968, he surrounds himself with po- he might have added: magnanimity is tive candidates came third; Conser- litical pros, and like Brian Mulroney in play. To the pros in the Tory and vative ministers like Bernard Valcourt in 1984, or Jean Chrétien in 1993, he and Gail Shea. Most embarrassingly, is unlikely to turn the political side of NDP campaign war rooms, it is now

Peter MacKay’s riding, a Tory strong- the party into the PMO. time to get a new education. hold his father, Elmer, ﬁrst won in 1971, and where Brian Mulroney ran The new PM controls unequivocally Charles J. McMillan, a native of in 1983 when he ﬁrst became leader, the political centre of Canadian poli- Charlottetown, is Professor of Strategic voted Liberal. The neighbouring seat, tics, in all regions, and will learn from Management at York University. once held by Robert Coates, was won other prime ministers how to manage He served as senior policy adviser by Bill Casey, the ex-Conservative his caucus. Further, unlike his father, to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. who was expelled from Harper’s cau- who lacked a strong caucus in West- [email protected]

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November/December 2015 36

Montreal and Quebec produced the surprise Liberal majority on election night, 35 per cent of the vote and 40 seats—the ﬁrst time a majority of Quebec seats went Liberal since 1980. Shutterstock photo. Quebec: Coming to Terms With Federalist Parties Antonia Maioni

Justin Trudeau’s vague rouge in Quebec may have de- f we’ve learned anything about ﬁed most prognosticators but, in a province that loves Quebec voters in federal elections, I it’s that partisan choice is far from both waves and winners, was not entirely shocking. predictable. Over the course of the past McGill political science professor and respected Que- four decades, we’ve seen Quebec voters throw their support—often en masse— bec commentator Antonia Maioni breaks down the to the Progressive Conservatives, Bloc variables that produced the outcome. Québécois and the New Democratic Par- ty, in each case searching for the party that could best represent Quebec interests and give voice to Quebecers’ concerns in Ottawa. In the 2015 election, that sentiment was transposed into an irresistible push for change—a change that, apart from the small, solid base of support for the Conservative party from les bleus in the Quebec City area, meant

Policy 37 replacing the Harper government with another party. Even though the Liberal Party held essentially the same position, that rights could not be disallowed And in this respect, Quebec voters became an important part of the gen- on the basis of religious garb, it was the discovery that the eral Canadian momentum against NDP was not different after all that weakened its appeal as the Conservative Party and toward a fresh alternative. the Liberal party in the 2015 election. It was an historic outcome in many ways. For the first time since the Progressive Conservative era un- tion on the “national question” for ment that the lack of depth of its der Brian Mulroney, a majority of francophone Quebecers in particular. roots in the province began to move Quebecers voted for the party that The choice in 2015 went beyond this voter sentiment for change toward formed the government in Ottawa. to ask Quebecers to take a more ful- the Liberals. Since the NDP had made For the first time since 1980, the Lib- some place in Canada itself; in other its Quebec support the basis for its eral Party won a majority of seats in words, to be part of the choice of a pitch to viability among Canadian Quebec. Moreover, the result (35 per new government itself. It was the voters, the softening in its support cent of the vote and 40 seats) was also hope that Quebec would be the base meant renewed doubt about its over- a leap of gigantic proportions from from which the NDP could launch a all chances to be an effective alterna- the meagre results of the 2011 elec- credible attempt at forming a govern- tive to the Conservatives. As the cam- tion, when the Liberals were reduced ment that had propelled the party to paign morphed into a referendum on to seven seats and the NDP swept 59 choose Tom Mulcair as its leader. the Harper government, the ricochet seats across the province. effect of those doubts in Quebec In this sense, the ballot box question pushed many voters, including the But the partisan choice of Quebec- for Quebec voters in 2015 was two- disaffected Liberals returning to the ers was not inevitable. And this may fold: they seemed prepared to support fold and francophones who perhaps be the most important caveat as we the NDP so long as it seemed to reflect would not have voted Liberal other- analyze the results of the 2015 vote Quebecers’ values and aspirations and wise, to make the switch. in Quebec. The considerable efforts so long as it seemed the viable alter- the Conservative Party expended in native to change the government in The second interpretation is that, courting the bleu vote, the possibility Ottawa. As the campaign unfolded, despite the majority of seats and plu- of a comeback that Gilles Duceppe however, both of these things became rality of votes, Quebec is not yet the and the Bloc tried to create, and the less certain. The controversy over the Promised Land for the Liberal Party. efforts of the NDP to build from its niquab exposed the inherent incom- In other words, the return to this fed- Quebec sweep in 2011, all speak to patibility of its message in Quebec and eralist party in the 2015 election does the sense of an electorate divided and in the rest of Canada. The NDP’s sup- not mean that Quebecers have be- up for grabs, rather than an inevita- port in Quebec had rested on a vague come re-born as believers in the Lib- ble return to the Liberals or another perception that the party was in tune eral Party’s federalist cause. Econom- bout of Trudeaumania. with Quebec values, but the debate ic, regional, and political landscapes on reasonable accommodation was in Quebec remain divided. Quebec- The party did not have much mo- far from resolved. Even though the ers still represent diverse ideological, mentum in Quebec until the sum- Liberal Party held essentially the same cultural, and linguistic sensibilities, mer months, opinion polls were rela- position, that rights could not be dis- within the province and with respect tively inconclusive until late in the allowed on the basis of religious garb, to the rest of Canada. What remains campaign, and seat projections were it was the discovery that the NDP was to be seen is how the new Liberal showing close three- and four-way not different after all that weakened government will integrate Quebec splits in many ridings. its appeal as a fresh alternative. As voices, how it will deal with Ottawa- for aspirations, the Quebec voters the Quebec relations and how it will face n that sense, the results in Quebec NDP courted were not as generally al- the enduring kinds of incompatibility point to two possible interpre- lergic to deficits as the NDP thought between Quebecers’ and Canadians’ tations. The first is that Quebec- I Ontarians would be. The message of interests that have destabilized feder- ers have, on the whole and including balanced budgets at all costs fell on alist parties for so many decades. francophone voters, come to terms deaf ears, opening the possibility to- with “federalist” parties. The choice Antonia Maioni is a professor of ward a Liberal message of stimulus of the NDP in 2011 bears this out: political science at McGill University, spending that sounded better than Quebec voters discovered a “new” former head of the McGill Institute for economic austerity. party—unknown and untested here— the Study of Canada and columnist for they felt comfortable with, due in no It was when the NDP began to fal- The Globe and Mail on Quebec and small part to the charisma of its then- ter as a viable alternative to Stephen constitutional affairs. leader, Jack Layton, but also its posi- Harper and the Conservative govern- [email protected]

November/December 2015 38

The downtown 416 Toronto skyline seen from suburban 905-land. 905 gave the Conservatives a sweep in 2011. In 2015 it swept them out. Istock photo So Much for the Big Shift: How Ontario Went Liberal Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon

When Stephen Harper was propelled to a majority gov- n Canadian Federal Elections, all roads to power in Ottawa run ernment in 2011 in part thanks to a sweep of Ontario I through Ontario: It is the indis- ridings around Toronto, some concluded that his victo- pensable province. In the 2015 election, after redistribution, Ontario ry represented a fundamental shift in Canadian elec- gained 15 new seats for a total of 121 toral patterns. Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party and seats compared to 78 seats in Quebec, 62 seats in the Prairies, 42 seats in Brit- Ontario voters proved that theory wrong on Oct. 19. ish Columbia, and 32 seats in Atlantic Tom Axworthy and Rana Shamoon analyze the results Canada. In 2015, the Liberal Party of of the 2015 campaign in the country’s most populous Justin Trudeau won 80 Ontario seats, compared to 11 in 2011; the Conser- province, and what they could mean for Trudeau in vative Party won 33, down from 73 in four years. 2011; and the NDP won 8 seats, down from 22 in 2011. The 80 Ontario Liberal seats form more than 43 per cent of the total Liberal caucus. The Liberal success in Ontario is the fundamental bedrock in explaining how the country’s “natural governing party” returned to govern.

Policy 39 Number of seats by party So what happened? What are the big Ontario in Ontario takeaways from 2015? Elections are won by bringing 2011 2015 out your core vote, attracting new voters to your camp, Conservative 73 33 depressing your opponent’s core vote so that they will at Liberal 11 80 least stay home, and attracting vote switches. The Liberal NDP 22 8 campaign succeeded on these fronts in Ontario in 2015. Total seats 106 121

the Liberals 45 per cent). The Conser- Percentage votes by party Number of votes by party vative message of low taxes, less gov- in Ontario in Ontario ernment and a more bellicose foreign 2011 2015 2011 2015 policy resonated with millions of Conservative 44.4% 35.0% Conservative 2,457,463 2,287,179 voters. But there was widespread re- pudiation of the mores and tactics of Liberal 25.3% 44.8% Liberal 1,400,302 2,923,791 the Harper PMO, with even dedicated NDP 25.6% 16.6% NDP 1,417,435 1,084,555 conservative-leaning Canadians like Conrad Black and Andrew Coyne Total Voter Total Voter Turnout 61.5% 68.5% Turnout 5,531,478 6,532,714 publicly leaving the Conservative camp. Leaders have a shelf life and Harper was overripe. So what happened? What are the big his was most evident in the The one truly catastrophic result was Ontario takeaways from 2015? Elec- Greater Toronto Area: the for the NDP, led by Tom Mulcair. tions are won by bringing out your GTA received 11 of the 15 T The NDP vote in Ontario fell from core vote, attracting new voters to new Ontario seats awarded in the re- 1,417,435 in 2011 to 1,084,555 in your camp, depressing your oppo- distribution. At 55 seats, this is more 2015—roughly 30 per cent of their nent’s core vote so that they will at seats than eight of the provinces. The 2011 support in Ontario either stayed least stay home, and attracting vote GTA is two distinct political realms, switches. The Liberal campaign suc- labelled by area code: the 416 is To- home or voted for another party. In ceeded on these fronts in Ontario ronto proper while the 905 suburban 2015 in Ontario, the NDP had only in 2015. Turnout was the ﬁrst key belt includes the municipalities that 16.6 per cent of the vote and eight change: 68.3 per cent voting in On- surround it. The party that wins the seats compared to 25.6 per cent of the tario compared to 61.5 per cent in 905 wins government. In 2011, the vote and 22 seats in 2011. 2011. The Trudeau campaign theme Conservatives won 21 of 22 seats in After the debacle of the 2011 Liberal of generational change was predicat- the 905 and nine of 23 in the 416. But campaign, both the Conservatives ed on the assumption that new voters in 2015, in the larger GTA pool after and NDP were gleeful. The “strange could be enticed to the polls. And the redistribution, the Liberals won all of death of Liberal Canada” was largely increase of voters in Ontario proved the seats in the 416 and 24 of 29 seats forecast by partisans in both camps, detrimental to the Harper Conserva- in the 905. Symbolic of this shift, her- as the Conservatives hoped to create a tives, who had a dedicated pool of oine of the 905, legendary Mississau- permanent Conservative majority co- support but without much growth ga mayor Hazel McCallion, not only alition, and the NDP planned to vault potential. In 2011, the Liberal base— endorsed the Liberals but she starred from opposition to government by re- disenchanted by then-leader Michael in campaign ads. Southern Ontario placing the Liberal Party as the mod- Ignatieff—stayed home: The raw stayed largely Conservative but the erate progressive hope. The astound- number of Liberal voters fell from 905 turned red and that was the differ- ing 2011 election result saw the NDP 1,743,241 in 2008, to only 1,400,302 ence. “Are you ready for change, my rise from third to second with 103 in 2011. But in 2015, the raw Liberal friends?” asked Trudeau at an October seats, and the Conservatives seem- vote jumped to 2,923,791, a 1.5 mil- rally of 7,000 supporters in Brampton. ingly ﬁrmly ensconced with a major- lion increase. In Ottawa and Toronto, They were ready. ity of 166. In 2011, with an unpopu- for example, the Liberal vote was over The Conservatives were defeated in lar Liberal leader and a galvanizing 50 per cent compared to a third for Ontario but not routed. The Conser- Jack Layton at the helm of the NDP, the Conservatives and 13 per cent vatives’ raw vote fell from 2,457,463 the country, especially Ontario and for the NDP. The Liberal campaign in 2011 to 2,287,179 in 2015, a nota- Quebec, bled blue and orange. But was textbook—the base turned out, ble decline in a larger voter pool to be it turned out to be a blip, not a criti- the opponent’s base support fell, and sure, but not a calamitous one. The cal re-alignment election. As Brian new voters added enough weight to Conservatives still have 35 per cent Mulroney once observed, the Liberal win an eightfold increase in seats. of the vote in Ontario (compared to Party is a tough old bird, not easily

November/December 2015 40 disposed of. And so it proved in 2015. here again as the former natural gov- Last, the Liberals swept Ontario but erning party returns to government? they did very well in Quebec, too, win- he 2015 election was a referen- This question was asked to a day-after ning 40 seats and 35 per cent of the dum on Stephen Harper—a panel organized by the Toronto Board vote, their best showing since 1980 T referendum the Conservatives of Trade featuring noted strategists under Pierre Trudeau. The Quebec re- lost. But with 70 per cent of voters from each of the major parties: Jaime gional campaign also had an impact desiring change, it was much less Watt, John Duffy and Robin McLach- in Ontario: as the NDP began to crash clear who would be the beneficiary lan. This impressive trio noted three in Quebec because of the niqab issue of the “time for a change” sentiment. definite mistakes or misreadings of and the return of the Bloc Québécois, Trudeau was aided by the mistakes the 2015 campaign that Trudeau will the air began to slowly seep from the of his opponents, especially those of have to avoid. The first is that, while balloon of Tom Mulcair. As the NDP Thomas Mulcair. Orange is not the acknowledging the skill of the Liberal began to fall, the anybody-but-Harper new red: Mulcair ran a campaign as a campaign, the Liberals greatly benefit- vote across the country, but especially sitting prime minister before he had ed from the errors of their opponents, in Ontario, coalesced around Trudeau. ever been elected to the post. Keith most notably the strategic blunder of Historically, the reason why the Liberal Davey, the famous Liberal rainmaker, the NDP’s small-c conservative stance, Party has been so successful is because used to say that Liberals had to cam- and the Conservatives’ fixation on the of its Quebec base. As a Quebecer, Jus- paign from the left and govern on the niqab issue, and jumping the shark tin Trudeau has a chance to restore right. Mulcair changed the formula to with a brazen announcement about that base. But responding to Quebec’s campaign from the right and be left aspirations while keeping the rest of a hotline for “barbaric cultural prac- behind. The NDP running on a plat- the country on side (or at least not op- tices.” The Liberals cannot count on form of a balanced budget gave an posed) requires tremendous judgment such electoral gifts from the gods in opening on the progressive side of and a lot of luck. Quebec is the weath- future campaigns. the ledger that Justin Trudeau hap- ervane of Canadian politics—swinging pily capitalized upon. Federally, this wildly from the Bloc, to the NDP, and was a repeat of what had happened in As the NDP began to now the Liberals. With a prime minis- Ontario in the provincial election of fall, the anybody- ter from Quebec, issues of bi-national, 2014—Andrea Horwath ignored the but-Harper vote across the bicultural coexistence, often on the progressive base in her own party and back-burner in recent years, may re-en- the province, and Kathleen Wynne country, but especially in ter the national conversation in a way and the Ontario Liberals were allowed Ontario, coalesced around that moves beyond the Constitutional to outflank the NDP. The strategists of Trudeau. Historically, the battles of the past. the 2015 Liberal campaign were close observers of Wynne’s success and reason why the Liberal Party Since the early 1960s, when Lester were no doubt delighted that the NDP has been so successful is Pearson and Walter Gordon made On- proved once again that those who for- because of its Quebec base. tario—and especially Toronto—the get history are condemned to repeat heart of the modern Liberal Party, the it. The NDP’s travails at least provoked As a Quebecer, Justin campaign truism has been “As Ontario one of the truly funny comments by Trudeau has a chance to goes, so goes the Liberal Party”. In 2015, CBC At Issue pundit Bruce Anderson restore that base. Ontario returned to its Liberal roots. assessing the shift of the NDP to the Yet, this attachment was lukewarm at right. Anderson said wryly that it was the beginning of the campaign, only hard to imagine the union core of gradually coalescing around the Liber- als as the best vehicle to remove Ste- the NDP massing in protest to the cry Second, the Liberal campaign took over phen Harper. In 2019, Justin Trudeau “What do we want? A balanced bud- a portion of the progressive base of the will face the challenge of winning On- get! When do we want it? Now!” NDP, and Justin Trudeau will be hard tario on his own record, not as a reac- pressed to keep it. The promise of the In the aftermath of the 2015 cam- tion to the defects of an opponent. paign, Liberals are triumphant. But Liberal electoral platform on health, there is danger in hubris, a condition tax cuts, infrastructure, First Nations, Contributing Writer Thomas S. which some believe is engrained in and so on, will be difficult to achieve Axworthy is a Senior Distinguished the Liberal Party’s DNA. Charles de given the state of the Canadian econo- Fellow at the Munk School of Global Gaulle, no mean strategist himself, my. This will require great skills at bal- Affairs and a Senior Fellow at Massey once reflected that the seeds of even- ancing multiple demands as expecta- College. He was principal secretary to tual defeat are usually sown in the im- tions are high and Trudeau must avoid Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau from mediate aftermath of one’s greatest the fate of promising much but deliver- 1981-84. [email protected] victory. So in assessing the successful ing little. The Liberals gathered behind Rana Shamoon previously worked for 2015 Liberal campaign in Ontario and their sails the overwhelming time-for- several Conservative cabinet ministers in Canada, what dangers lurk in a too- a-change sentiment, but it will be very the Harper Government. optimistic view that happy days are easy to get blown off course. [email protected]

Policy 41

Rachel Notley’s victory in the Alberta election in May unleashed powerful forces of change, though ultimately not the ones the NDP beneﬁted from at the outset of the campaign. Flickr photo

The Prairies: Notley Victory Unleashed Forces of Change Dale Eisler

The balance of partisan leadership among Canadi- t was the ﬁrst clear signal that a powerful mood for change was an provinces and between their capitals and Ottawa I stirring in Canada. On May 5, has a cause-and-effect life of its own, like a political when the Alberta’s NDP’s Rachel Not- Calder mobile. That perpetual dance of probabilities ley swept to power with a majority government, toppling more than four was disrupted in May when Rachel Notley dispatched decades of rule by the Progressive Con- Alberta’s hegemonic Conservative Party after more servatives, Canadian politics seemed to have become unhinged. than 40 years of rule. It presaged the national mood for change that drove a campaign in which premiers With the countdown on to a federal election, it immediately breathed life were major players. into the hopes of Tom Mulcair and the

November/December 2015 42 federal New Democrats. If the mighty PCs could be thrown from ofﬁce in It was Justin Trudeau and the Liberals who reaped Alberta by the NDP in the very home- the rewards of the shock waves out of Alberta. It land of today’s federal Conservative was the Trudeau Liberals who positioned themselves as the party, anything was possible. And, agents of change in an election that was a referendum on for a time, it seemed true. For much of the 11-week federal campaign, the status quo. the NDP gathered strength and were leading many of the polls.

Ultimately though, it was Justin tribution and describe it as a tax.” wins, two by very narrow margins, Trudeau and the Liberals who reaped the rest of the province’s 10 ridings the rewards of the shock waves out But if the mood for change was giv- remained a Conservative fortress. of Alberta. It was the Trudeau Liber- en a shot of adrenalin by the Alber- als who positioned themselves as the ta election, in the final analysis the In Alberta, where change no longer agents of change in an election that Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatch- seemed radical, the Liberals managed was a referendum on the status quo. ewan and Manitoba played a less piv- a breakthrough in Calgary, winning So rather than serve as a validation otal role in the Liberal breakthrough two seats, and two in Edmonton. The federally for the NDP, Alberta merely nationally. In fact, the Liberal tide NDP managed only to retain its lone signalled to the rest of Canada that that was rolling west out of Ontario Edmonton riding. The rest of Alberta dramatic change was indeed pos- lost a great deal of momentum when remained staunchly Conservative, sible. And we saw the results with the it hit rural Manitoba, almost stalled oblivious to the national trend. Trudeau Liberals’ stunning majority completely in Saskatchewan and re- victory on October 19, one that left vived slightly in Alberta, a Liberal So what explains the unique results the NDP crushed and the Conserva- wasteland since the days of Pierre in the Prairies? Among the key fac- tives facing years in opposition and Trudeau’s National Energy Program. tors was the impact of provincial and the search for a new leader to replace even municipal politics on the fed- Stephen Harper. eral vote. Although none of the three premiers injected themselves into As people sift through the entrails The most encouraging results the partisan debate like Wynne, each of the campaign and its results, the were factors based on their unique impact of provincial politics on the for the Liberals came in circumstances. outcome cannot be discounted. Winnipeg, where the party The clearest and most compelling won seven seats, six of them It is no secret that Manitoba NDP Pre- evidence came from Ontario, where mier Greg Selinger is facing an uphill Premier Kathleen Wynne played a new. In Saskatchewan, the struggle as he heads to a provincial central role in the Liberal campaign Liberal surge ran into a election next year. The NDP has been and the party’s stunning resurgence Conservative bulwark, with in power for 16 years in Manitoba and in that vote-rich province, which was only Ralph Goodale the mood for change seems evident. key to a Liberal majority. An avowed A year ago, Selinger faced a rebellion and very public supporter of Trudeau, maintaining and even of five members of his own cabinet Premier Wynne made it perfectly strengthening his decades- who believed he was past his best- clear whom she wanted as prime long hold on Regina before date, reflected in an approval minister, campaigning with Trudeau Wascana. rating earlier this year of 23 per cent, and advocating for his policies. She the lowest among all premiers. was repaying the support she received from Trudeau during her own Not surprisingly, Selinger kept a low 2014 provincial election campaign. profile in the federal NDP campaign. But ultimately, the Liberal momen- he flash point in Wynne’s The most encouraging results for the tum and the provincial hangover clash with Harper was his Liberals came in Winnipeg, where took its toll on the NDP. The agent T refusal to work with the On- the party won seven seats, six of of change in Manitoba, where the tario government’s plan for a pro- them new. In Saskatchewan, the Lib- provincial NDP is viewed as a long- vincial pension scheme. He called eral surge ran into a Conservative in-the-tooth political establish- it just another tax on hard-working bulwark, with only Ralph Goodale ment, became the federal Liberals. people. In response, Wynne said maintaining and even strengthen- The most telling evidence came in rather curtly: “Only the truly short- ing his decades-long hold on Regi- Winnipeg Centre, a traditional NDP sighted could look at a pension con- na Wascana. Other than three NDP stronghold, where NDP incumbent

Policy 43 Pat Martin was crushed by more than like Saskatchewan, and ultimately led rebirth in Alberta was popular Cal- 9,000 votes by the Liberals Robert- to him endorsing the federal Conser- gary Mayor Naheed Nenshi, the son Falcon Ouellette. vatives as the best economic choice of immigrants, who thrust himself for the province. into the midst of both the refugee he provincial dynamic in Sas- and niqab debates. Accusing the fed- Some believe the nod to the Conser- katchewan differed dramati- eral Conservatives of running a cam- vatives was a strategic move by Wall, cally. In a province where con- paign of fear, Nenshi said he was not T who is being touted by many as a pos- servative-minded Premier Brad Wall a fan of the niqab, but also believed sible successor to Harper. It is an idea has held the highest approval rating the government of Canada should with roots stretching back almost two among premiers for several years, the not be telling people what to wear. years when Wall, along with Jason westward Liberal momentum stalled. It was an intervention that led to a Kenney and Jim Prentice—prior to While the party was able to increase very public war of words with Jason its popular vote to a respectable 24 his ill-fated venture into Alberta politics—was among the keynote speak- Kenney. Moreover, Nenshi’s wither- per cent across the province, it was ing criticism of Canada’s response enough to produce only Goodale’s ers at the annual Manning Centre for Democracy Conference in Ottawa. to the flood of Syrian refugees also re-election in Regina with more than clearly struck a chord with many Al- 55 per cent of the vote. The event, which brings together key Conservatives from across Canada, berta voters. Not surprisingly, both For his part, Wall played a cautious, is considered a must-attend event Trudeau and Mulcair made sure dur- but not insignificant role in the feder- for anyone with serious ambitions. ing campaign visits to Calgary that al campaign. He made three interven- Wall’s appearance was seen as a first they were seen with Nenshi. tions, first to call for a change to the step in testing the federal Conserva- equalization formula. His argument is tive leadership waters with other po- that provinces producing hydro pow- tential aspirants. In the end, the er receive higher equalization pay- lesson is a familiar But Wall, who some suggest has been ments because the national formula one. There is no more does not account for revenue from quietly studying French, denies any hydro-power generation, as it does such interest. He faces a provincial powerful force in politics from non-renewable resources such election next April and when asked than the mood for a change as oil and gas. Wall’s effort got little the day after the October 19 election in government. Once it if he “absolutely rules out the pos- traction in the federal campaign, but takes root, it becomes self- is a message that plays well to his pro- sibility” of seeking the Conservative vincial audience. leadership, he answered: “correct.” fulfilling and finds energy Clearly, timing of the provincial elec- in the idea itself. Premier Wall also sent letters asking tion would make a move by Wall into the three federal leaders to state their federal politics extremely difficult. positions on pipeline projects, geneti- cally modified crops and equalization. In Alberta, the biggest influence on Their responses were non-committal, the modest but still significant Liberal So, in the end, the lesson is a familiar which Wall called “disappointing.” breakthrough in Calgary and Edmon- one. There is no more powerful force ton rests not in provincial, but mu- in politics than the mood for a change “They all say the same thing, unfor- nicipal politics. As Alberta’s economy in government. Once it takes root, it tunately, which is basically kind of struggles through the wrenching ef- becomes self-fulfilling and finds en- a punt back to the provinces,” Wall fects of low oil prices, the Notley gov- ergy in the idea itself. All that’s left said. “I can kind of understand that, ernment can take little comfort in the to decide is who can tap it electorally. except the challenge there is that if federal results where the NDP popular We got that answer emphatically on we don’t have federal leadership on vote came in at a miserable 11.6 per October 19. equalization, we’re never going to see cent, far behind the Conservatives at reform. It won’t come at the provin- almost 60 per cent, and significantly Dale Eisler is Senior Policy Fellow at cial level because the views are so dis- lagging the Liberals at 25 per cent. the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School parate; the interests are so different at There is scant evidence the provincial of Public Policy at the University the provincial table.” NDP surge of last May created any of Regina. He is a former assistant positive effects federally for the party secretary to the federal cabinet and Finally, Wall expressed his support and, judging by the federal result, the Canadian consul-general in Denver. for the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Part- Conservative vote has again solidified [email protected] nership trade agreement signed in the in large swaths of the province since midst of the campaign. He argued the the provincial results of last May. TPP would bring significant benefits to a commodity-exporting province A bigger factor in the Liberal urban

November/December 2015 44

The Vancouver skyline. The Liberals won 17 seats in BC, up from only two in 2011, while the Conservatives were reduced from 21 to only 10. Istock photo The B.C. Battleground that Wasn’t: The View From the Wet Coast Greg Lyle

In the ﬁnal days of the federal election campaign, nce again, the promised election night spotlight was more than a few analysts were predicting that British O snatched away from British Columbia could prove to be the 905 of 2015—the Columbia voters. Despite Elections crucial piece of the electoral map that would put the Canada changes to more closely syn- chronize voting hours across the coun- Conservatives over the top. In the end, the landslide try, the networks had already called that swept the rest of the country didn’t stop at the the election for the Liberals before the B.C. border. In fact, the election was called for Justin votes in B.C. had been counted. Trudeau’s Liberals before the polls even closed on the We can be like that in B.C., a chip on our shoulders; an easy willingness to country’s Paciﬁc coast. As pollster Greg Lyle writes, it take offence. And over the past four wasn’t just about fuzzy math. years, we have taken a great deal of offence to Stephen Harper.

The basic story of the BC election is actually quite similar to that of Canada as a whole.

Policy 45 Much of the anger against the federal government in BC was driven by By July 2012, the damage was done. The style. Voters were alienated by a top- government had failed a character test. BC had down command and control process backed Stephen Harper in election after election only to that gagged most federal government officials as well as, it appeared, local feel he had turned his back on them when they needed Conservative MPs. Voters from the him to listen. party’s Reform Party wing who were mobilized by concerns over a similar approach from the Mulroney and Chrétien governments were particu- want to see high standards to mini- identified the base closure as a soft larly offended. mize the impacts of construction and spot for government and mounted operation and they want to know a public campaign to oppose the There were growing concerns over there are plans and resources in place closure. They quickly tied the base ethical scandals: the Robocall issue to deal with accidents and natural closure to the larger issue of marine from 2011 and perceptions that the disasters. They look to their govern- safety raised by Northern Gateway, Conservatives would stoop to any- ments to protect these interests so questioning the government’s mo- thing to win, the conviction and im- that if a pipeline is approved, it meets tives. Their call was quickly picked up prisonment of Dean Del Mastro for the highest possible standards and by politicians such as Mayor Gregor breaking election spending rules and that governments remain vigilant in Robertson and Premier Christy Clark. the Duffy trial. monitoring their ongoing operations. Even talk radio jumped on the issue, But B.C. has usually been more kind They want a government that acts as particularly CKNW morning host and than the rest of Canada to Stephen an honest broker. BC media icon Bill Good. The govern- Harper. In 2004, 2008 and 2011, the ment felt it could not afford to back Harper Conservatives did consider- New to politics and keen to impress, down, that if they gave in on this deci- ably better in B.C. than on average Oliver was far from balanced in his sion the unions would roll them back in Canada. In 2011, B.C. treated Ste- early comments. “Gateway, in our one cut at a time, putting in jeopardy phen Harper and the Conservatives opinion, is in the national interest”, the plan to balance the budget. But particularly well, delivering just over he said within weeks of being sworn the federal communications response 45 per cent of its votes and 21 of 36 in. And with that statement the gov- was weak at best and the government seats. If the only problems in B.C. ernment pulled off its referee’s jersey bled on the issue for months. had been the same as elsewhere, BC and jumped on the field. The rhetoric should have delivered more votes and escalated as 2012 began. This was not y July 2012, the damage was more seats than it just did. There had Oliver freelancing. The Prime Minis- done. The government had to be something more than the issues ter himself called environmentalists B failed a character test. BC had that were bedeviling the government “radicals” who wanted to “hijack our backed Stephen Harper in election af- everywhere else in the country. And regulatory system to achieve their ter election only to feel he had turned there was. But to find the explana- radical ideological agenda”. British his back on them when they needed tion we have to look back beyond Columbians who simply had reason- him to listen. With few exceptions, this election, all the way back to the able questions and fears felt the gov- month after month, the polls showed cabinet that was appointed right after ernment had stopped listening and the Conservatives had lost their B.C. the 2011 campaign. was determined to have its way, re- electoral advantage and the new nor- gardless of the consequences to B.C. mal for the Conservative vote in B.C. n May 2011, newly elected To- was the national average. ronto MP Joe Oliver was sworn These fears quickly came to a head in in as Canada’s Minister of Natural Vancouver when the Conservatives So it was no surprise at the start of I closed the Kitsilano Coast Guard base. Resources. He came from an illustrious the election that the Conservatives career in the investment sector but The 2012 budget was a key moment in were in trouble in BC. Redistribution with no previous elected experience. the government’s efforts to eliminate had been helpful to the Tories. The At the top of his priority list was the the deficit. Already in power for six province gained six new seats and an- Northern Gateway pipeline running years, the Conservatives had no easy alysts expected the Tories to win five from Edmonton through Northern BC cuts available to meet their target of of them, based on the last elections to Kitimat on the North Coast. $14 billion in spending reductions by results. But the loss of the B.C. Con- 2015. As every branch of government servative advantage and the general British Columbians have obvious looked for ways to make do with less, negative trend meant the Conserva- concerns about pipelines. They un- the Coast Guard developed a plan to tives would struggle to hold on to derstand B.C.’s role as Canada’s gate- manage its search and rescue function what they had. way to the Pacific Rim, but they want without the Kitsilano base. to ensure that any dangerous cargo The NDP started the election as the shipped through their province is Federal government unions searching best bet to gain from Conservative handled with the utmost care. They for ways to oppose the cuts quickly weakness. B.C. has not always been

November/December 2015 46 kind to New Democrats. During the NDP and moving to the Liberals. loss of two thirds of their seats, a drop 90s, weighed down by an unpopu- from 29 seats using the 2011 votes on lar NDP provincial government and Despite the final Liberal surge, the 2015 boundaries down to 10. Some fighting against a populist Reform Greens and the NDP held their own losses were shocking. The Tories party, the NDP won only two or three on election night. Green leader Eliza- lost all three seats in the prosperous seats per election. But as the Reform beth May retained her seat on Van- North Shore suburbs of Vancouver. transformed into the Conservative couver Island, although she was un- In Cloverdale-Langley, a 17,000 vote party and memories of the provin- able to expand her beach head. This advantage over the Liberals in 2011 cial government faded, the NDP un- despite several promising Island races votes turned into a 5,000- vote loss to der Jack Layton were able to build up including Victoria, where the Liberals the Liberals in 2015. In Kelowna-Lake a core of eight to 10 seats based on dropped out of the race leaving the Country, a 23,000 win over the Liber- Vancouver Island and East Vancou- Greens in a head-to-head race with als in 2011 turned into a 4,000 vote ver. They also started to see some suc- NDP star Murray Rankin. defeat in this election. cess in the Interior and in Vancouver suburbs such as North Surrey and the The Liberals ended up winning all but Tri-City area. Thomas Mulcair added For much of August, two seats in the City of Vancouver to these advantages as the campaign the Liberals shored and a strong majority of seats in the began. B.C. voters saw him as Harper’s up their leadership rest of Greater Vancouver’s suburbs. equal on competence while leading Even more shocking is how close they on compassion and positive change. weaknesses. Once they came to winning even more seats. dropped their deficit bomb They were about 500 votes away from Liberal prospects in B.C. seemed dim. late in August, they began to winning Burnaby South from the NDP The Liberals had won just two seats and Richmond Centre from the Con- in 2011. Their best election in the pull in centre-left voters who servatives. They were 1,500 votes away past 20 years was in 2006, when they were uninspired with the from winning the Central Okanagan won nine seats. More typical were NDP promise of “some seat and from defeating a Conserva- the six seats they won in 2008. Bull- tive star, former Surrey mayor Dianne ish Liberals eyed a new open seat in change, some day” and Watts, in South Surrey-White Rock, Vancouver and one or two relatively rallied to the Liberal message both bedrock Conservative seats. close suburban Vancouver seats as of “real change now”. possible wins. With a few notable exceptions, the Tories did not lose because their vote The Liberal managers delayed their went down dramatically. On average, initial response to the dropping of the the Conservative vote only dropped writs in order to give Justin Trudeau The NDP lost votes but gained seats. by 2,500 votes a seat in the Lower time to fly to Vancouver for his cam- They dropped six points in their vote Mainland and the Interior. The Lib- paign launch. He also made a dedicat- share but ended up with three more erals won by mobilizing new voters. ed B.C. campaign ad during his third seats. The NDP benefited from their B.C.’s turnout surged from an average campaign visit on September 10 and relatively high initial starting point of 60 per cent in 2011 to 70 per cent 11. However, if you judge an area’s pri- from the last election and the fact this year. These new voters gave the ority by the amount of time the leader that, while they may not have gained Liberals an average increase of 14,000 spends there, it was clear the Liberal votes compared to 2011, they didn’t votes in those regions. war room was not betting heavily on lose any either. Not only did they B.C. as Trudeau visited a total of just At the end of the day, the Liberals sweep all the Island seats with the five times in the 11-week campaign. won 17 B.C. seats, up from only two exception of Green Leader Elizabeth in 2011. The NDP actually increased Once the campaign began, the de- May’s, as well as holding on to their its seats from 12 to 14, while the Con- velopments in B.C. mirrored those East Vancouver redoubts, they won servatives were reduced from 21 to of the rest of the country. For much several Tri-City and Southern Inte- only 10. of August, the Liberals shored up rior seats. The NDP gained from the their leadership weaknesses.Once Tories on the Island and in Interior So long as the Liberals can keep they dropped their deficit bomb late swing seats as the Conservatives did those new voters voting, the Liberals in August, they began to pull in cen- lose votes on an absolute basis. have a strong base to work with. The tre-left voters who were uninspired challenge for the Liberals will be to with the NDP promise of “some he big drama in B.C. came maintain that enthusiasm through change, some day” and rallied to from the showdown between four years of the day-to-day reality the Liberal message of “real change T the Liberals and the Conser- of government. now”. As it became clear that the vatives. Tories experienced the larg- Liberals were moving ahead of the est drop in their share of vote in the Greg Lyle is the President of Innovative NDP, bandwagon and strategic vot- country—down a third from 46 per Research, a Vancouver-based public ers joined their more ideologically cent to 30 per cent. In our first-past- opinion research firm. driven neighbours in leaving the the-post system, that resulted in the [email protected]

Policy 47

Radio-Canada news anchor Céline Galipeau on the set of Le Téléjournal. Catherine Cano writes the network’s news audiences have actually been growing, despite incursions by new media. Radio-Canada photo Campaign Coverage: Have the Media Reinvented Themselves? Catherine Cano

This election campaign was not only the longest in mod- ack in late July, during a dis- ern Canadian history, it was arguably the one with the cussion on election planning, fewest journalists held captive on leaders’ tours since the B I received a strong hint from a Conservative source that I should take days before campaign trains. Nowhere was the revolu- my vacation sooner rather than later. tion in election campaign coverage more apparent than What? I was about to leave on a long- in the convergence between traditional and social media planned week with my family. I went organizations—a development veteran news executive quickly from disbelief to dismay—I was going to be in real trouble. Catherine Cano says provided audiences with unprecedented coverage. No one, including me, wanted to believe this campaign would start in mid-summer. Suddenly, we—the

November/December 2015 48 media, were scrambling, figuring out how to cover an eleven-week cam- This time, we challenged ourselves to break free paign on a five-week budget. from the staged, highly controlled, low-risk events organized for the leaders of the three parties aspiring to Some of us were already planning to do things differently this time. power. These events were still very much about control and We wanted to cover the issues that avoiding surprises, ensuring that spontaneous moments matter to Canadians rather than the would be rare. horse race. We wanted to provide better analysis and understanding of the offer. We wanted to reach out to a broader audience, and hear what Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Vine campaign. Few media organizations they had to say. and other social networks, spread- had people on the ground before the ing virally. This was evidence of a famous picture of baby Alan lying on For many years, the media have as- campaign that understood the power the beach. But the whole world was signed reporters to follow the lead- of social media, the strategic impor- aware of the migrant crisis—and so ers—on buses and planes, wherever tance of engaging with voters, and were we. Through hundreds of wit- they chose to go—at a mounting how to use it. nesses and migrants themselves, we cost. Not this time—a major depar- had access to photos and videos of ture from past practice. Early on, As social media has courage and despair. If there is one and mostly by choice, most media changed the way story that consolidated the power of outlets decided to join the leaders’ social media this year, this is the one. tours only for a few weeks of the cam- political parties reach out, paign. Some of them did not at all. it has also changed the he migrants’ story had a huge This time, we challenged ourselves way of covering the news. impact, as it created a state to break free from the staged, highly For most media of virtual panic here in Canada. controlled, low-risk events organized T It demonstrated a major divide among for the leaders of the three parties as- organizations, it was time parties and forced a questioning of piring to power. These events were to understand the Canadian values. The debate moved still very much about control and opportunity to cover from opening our doors to more peo- avoiding surprises, ensuring that ple from Syria and Iraq, to the issue spontaneous moments would be rare. election campaigns differently. of security and the right to wear the The media focus on issues that niqab at citizenship ceremonies. The emerged on and off the trail made online conversation became unstop- sure the parties and leaders were ac- pable, and the information exchange countable. There was no concerted As social media has changed the way became an avalanche—almost out of effort but most media decided to political parties reach out, it has also control, and potentially dangerous. spend more time in the field, closer to changed the way of covering the news. The volumes reached the point where people, and to capture what mattered For most media organizations, it was traditional news organizations could and resonated most for them. Engag- time to understand the opportunity to not keep up; so much information ing with Canadians had to become cover election campaigns differently. our priority in reality and virtually. needed to be filtered and validated. This historically long campaign More and more, we discount what “Who would like a selfie with me— would be even more challenging. many call the traditional or main- I’ve got a few minutes?” asked Justin Would Canadians care in the sum- stream media. There are reasons for Trudeau, appearing spontaneous. But mer? How would we reach them and this was not just a question out of the where? How could we stay relevant this. More people than ever—not blue. At each campaign stop, the Lib- in an era of information overload? just young people—get their news eral leader asked to schedule time for How can traditional news organiza- from Facebook and Twitter, which selfies with people. He would handle tions stay in the game in this increas- are becoming increasingly inter- the phone and press the button him- ingly digital world where politicians generational. There were 23 million self. He had mastered the technique can speak directly to people? conversations related to the election perfectly, never missing a great shot. this time. Political platforms have The answer to the first question came been announced on Facebook and This may sound like a cute and unim- quickly and powerfully. At first, Ca- leaders take questions directly from portant anecdote, but it was actually nadians did not pay much attention. Canadians via social media, giving pretty savvy. Hundreds of those pho- But then came the biggest story with these platforms instant credibility. tos and videos have been posted on the most influence on the Canadian There is no doubt that Facebook has

Policy 49 become the must-read platform as were checking their opponents’ state- media during the campaign. We also the engagement reaches an unprec- ments in real time, ready to post a saw more data journalism providing edented level. counterattack. Elizabeth May had audiences with interactive tools. videotaped comments to be pushed More and more, we on Twitter—a strategy that reached In turn, the digital leaders are highly interested in news media content and discount what many thousands of people and ensured that the Green Party was not left out. this election saw new partnerships. call the traditional or Radio-Canada and CTV had an agree- mainstream media. There The biggest challenge for news orga- ment with Facebook, looking at quan- are reasons for this. More nizations is that news consumers are titative data and seeing trends across not all moving towards digital plat- people than ever—not just the country. CBC News joined Google forms—at least, not yet. In fact, they to create a page where users can pin young people—get their use many platforms at different times themselves on a map and tell others news from Facebook and during the day. Television and radio, why voting is important to them and Twitter, which are becoming for instance, still attract a large audi- challenge friends to “pledge to vote”. increasingly inter- ence. At Radio-Canada, we have not In an effort to hear the voices of the only maintained our market share, two million new young voters, Radio- generational. we have increased it. To stay rele- Canada invited them to talk about the vant to that audience, our newscast issues important to them and ask the has become a hybrid, providing the candidates questions in a 15-second major news stories with more depth video on Instagram. his is part of the story. Admit- and context. During the day, people tedly, social media took the want to know what happened; in the CBC and Radio-Canada innovated in lead in the Canadian cam- evening, they want to know why it more ways than one. Vote Compass T was a very popular on-line tool used paign. But there is also no doubt that happened. To that end, we presented the so-called “traditional media” have five special editions of the Téléjournal by more than 1.5 million Canadians redefined themselves and moved to with Céline Galipeau on the state of to compare their views to the posi- include all forms of digital media in Canada. The first 10 minutes were tions of Canada`s major parties on the their coverage. The approach was the top news stories and the next 25 issues. But the biggest digital success three-pronged. a more in-depth look at one issue. It came with Elect R and Résultats 2015, paid off. which was the one-stop destination First and foremost, while so much for Radio-Canada and CBC News elec- information has been initiated and tion night coverage. The goal was to shared on social media, it was im- There is no doubt let Canadians customize their own perative both to report the facts and that news election night with favourite ridings to provide solid analysis and expla- and candidates to follow, watch- nations of the key issues. Second, we organizations understand ing or listening to live TV and radio had to ensure that our content was the power of social media broadcasts, getting photos, stories accessible on all platforms and adapt- like Facebook, search and breaking news as well as all the ed to each specific audience; thirdly, engines like Google and results—a one-of-a-kind experience. we had to create a space to engage directly with Canadians where they are. video-sharing websites like There is no doubt that this elec- YouTube. Most media tion campaign has seen a change in This election brought fact-checking pushed their breaking news the way media create and distribute to the fore—certainly the most pop- their content. So yes, the media are ular feature with all audiences, no and original content on- re-inventing themselves and no, not matter where they were getting their line and onto social media as quickly as they should. But it is news. Radio-Canada first introduced during the campaign. important to remember that while a segment called “reality check” in most news organizations have fewer the 2004 federal campaign. It was resources, they are producing more a huge hit, and still is. Today, most content than ever to meet the needs news organizations have one form or There is no doubt that news organi- of multiple audiences across multiple another of reality check, such as the zations understand the power of so- platforms. Canadian Press’s “Baloney Metre”. In cial media like Facebook, search en- fact, it is so effective that the parties gines like Google and video-sharing Contributing Writer Catherine Cano is have started their own, competing di- websites like YouTube. Most media Director of News at Radio-Canada for its rectly with the media. For example, pushed their breaking news and orig- radio, television and online platforms. during the debates, political parties inal content on-line and onto social [email protected]

November/December 2015 50 Facebook and the Federal Election: A New Platform for Civic Engagement Kevin Chan

With digital technologies and platforms, Canadian voters cy issues, from the small business tax now have a new and important way to discuss issues and rate to government surveillance. Con- to engage directly with each other and their leaders. Face- servative Party Leader Stephen Harp- er conducted a live Q&A on Facebook book, with over 20 million Canadian users, is a platform the day the Trans-Pacific Partnership like no other. Recognizing this potential, Facebook Canada was announced, dedicating the entire sought to play a helpful civic engagement role in the 2015 session to getting his party’s position Federal Election. out on that important issue. Facebook also provides party leaders with an opportunity to be more lighthearted with Canadians, and anadian voters have tradi- 2. We helped show how Canadians reveal aspects of their personal- tionally had numerous op- are engaging and talking about ity that are harder to get across in a C tions with which to engage the election by offering insights traditional campaign event. Justin in meaningful ways during election gleaned from Facebook conversa- Trudeau was the first political leader campaigns, both with each other and tion data; and globally to take the Facebook 60-sec- with candidates vying for public of- ond Challenge, answering rapid-fire fice—town halls, public rallies, door 3. We encouraged Canadians to get questions designed to help Canadi- knocking. These activities offer op- out and vote. ans get to know him better. For ex- portunities for direct and often face- ample, we learned the last movie he Facebook breaks down the barriers be- to-face engagement, a unique quality saw was Frozen (for the 19th time tween Canadians and their political of the democratic process. because he has kids) and that he’d leaders. Well before the official cam- choose poutine over a BeaverTail as With digital technologies and plat- paign period started, and throughout his favourite food. forms, Canadian voters now have the writ period, we worked with the new and important ways online to parties to develop organic and paid Another trend we saw this election discuss issues and to engage directly engagement strategies. We witnessed was the use of Facebook to make with each other and their leaders. a number of innovative examples exclusive policy and political an- and best practices from the election nouncements. Leaders turned to With over 20 million unique Canadi- that are worth highlighting. Facebook because it allowed them to ans on our service, Facebook Canada drive engagement, shore up support, sought to play a helpful civic engage- ver the course of the cam- and reach far more people than a typ- ment role in the 2015 federal elec- paign, all three main party ical press conference. For example, tion. We approached this challenge leaders participated in live Harper announced a commitment to in a few ways: O Q&A sessions on Facebook, enjoying renew funding for Brain Canada ex- 1. We helped connect Canadians an authentic dialogue with Canadi- clusively on Facebook. Calgary Mayor with their candidates and party ans. NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was Naheed Nenshi used our platform to leaders—a natural extension of our the first to hold a Facebook Q&A, and speak to a national audience on the mission to make the world more used the platform to engage directly importance of municipal infrastruc- open and connected; with voters on a wide variety of poli- ture as a federal campaign issue.

Policy 51 Working with the Mayor’s Ofﬁce and the University of Ottawa’s iVote—Je From June 1 to October 19, more than 7 million Vote, Facebook supported Nenshi in people had more than 50 million interactions a live Facebook address to Canadians about the Canadian Election on Facebook. across the country.

Trudeau unveiled the full Liberal they watched the livestream, and an anonymized and aggregated way, campaign platform live then spent another half an hour af- what leaders, parties and issues Ca- on Facebook. This was an terwards answering them live in a nadians were talking about, and how innovative way for town hall. these changed over the course of the campaign. Partnerships with CTV Trudeau to connect Canadians go to Facebook to talk News and Radio-Canada helped us tell directly with his Facebook about the things that matter to them, some of these stories. supporters. and this election was no exception. From June 1 to October 19, there For example, we found that Harper were 7 million people and 50 million dominated the conversation on Face- interactions about the Canadian Elec- book throughout the campaign until tion on Facebook. These spontaneous Election Day, which is not unusual for Perhaps most notably of all, Trudeau conversations between real people an incumbent prime minister near- unveiled the full Liberal campaign clearly demonstrate that Canadians ing 10 years in ofﬁce. It is interesting platform live on Facebook. This was very much cared about this election. to note though that on Election Day, an innovative way for Trudeau to con- an hour before the polls closed in the nect directly with his over 450,000 To provide insights into this phenom- province of Quebec, Trudeau leap- Facebook supporters. He asked them enon, we worked with Facebook’s data frogged ahead of Harper as the most to send him questions directly while science team to better understand, in talked about leader in the province.

November/December 2015 52 istration tool. On Election Day, we partnered again with Elections Cana- da to place a prominent “I’m A Voter” megaphone at the top of voting-age Canadians’ News Feeds, reminding them of their civic responsibility to vote and giving them the opportunity to share that they did. By our own calculations, the Megaphone reached 12.4M Canadians on Election Day, resulting in 814K shares.

Additionally, we partnered with co- median Rick Mercer in support of his “I Will Vote” profile picture filter. Inspired by Facebook’s own “Pride Filter”, which went viral after the US Supreme Court ruled in favour of same-sex marriage earlier this year, the initiative allowed Canadians to filter their Facebook profile picture with a public pledge to vote. Mer- cer’s theory was that “voting is con- tagious”, and by urging Canadians to filter their profile pics, we hoped it would spread the importance of voting across people’s social networks. Mulcair had dipped to fourth place and issues. Interestingly, Trudeau, who trailed Harper in terms of volume behind Duceppe. Based on the results While Facebook provided the online of conversation on Facebook through- of the election in Quebec, Facebook platform and the digital tools, it was conversation may very well have been out the campaign, consistently rose to ultimately the millions of Canadians, an early indicator of things to come. become the most talked about leader and their political parties, candidates In terms of the most discussed politi- during the debates. and leaders, who made use of them cal issues on Facebook, it is perhaps With over 20 million Canadians on and pioneered new kinds of political not surprising that the economy was Facebook, we felt strongly that we interactions and dialogue. top-of-mind throughout most of the should help to get out the vote. Vot- campaign. However at the height of ing is a deeply personal act, but it can Kevin Chan is Head of Public Policy, the refugee crisis at the end of August, also be incredibly social. Our belief Canada for Facebook Inc. In this social issues did over-take the econo- that Canadians would be more likely capacity he leads the company’s public my as the most talked about campaign to vote if they saw that their family policy efforts in Canada, facilitating an subject, and did so again when the and friends on Facebook were also ongoing dialogue with policy-makers government revoked the citizenship voting led us to partner with Elec- about Facebook’s products and services, of the Toronto terrorist (see time series tions Canada on two important ini- and engaging on a broad range of issues chart on the previous page). tiatives during the campaign. that impact the Internet sector.

Facebook also partnered with the Ma- First, for the International Day of De- clean’s/CityTV Leader’s Debate, the mocracy on September 15, we worked Munk Debate on Foreign Policy, Ra- with Elections Canada to send a story dio-Canada’s debate, and TVA’s Face to all voting-age Canadians in their à Face. We livestreamed the Maclean’s News Feeds promoting online voter and Munk debates on Facebook, en- registration (image above) The mil- suring accessibility to everyone with lions who saw this story had the op- an Internet connection, and for each tion of sharing it with their family debate, pulled data insights on the and friends, or clicking through to most talked-about moments, leaders, Elections Canada’s online voter reg-

Policy 53

Justin Trudeau in another selﬁe moment that drove his coverage on social media. Andrew MacDougall writes: “Meet the new normal.” Adam Scotti photo. How Social Was it? The Team that Won the Web War Won the Campaign Andrew MacDougall

Every campaign since Barack Obama’s 2008 successful n the week following this fall’s run for the United States presidency has been described federal election the leaders’ Twit- I ter accounts fell silent. Instagram as the first truly social media campaign. In Canada’s feeds remained stuck on October 19, 2015 federal election campaign, the playing field had the political Hiroshima of voting changed. Justin Trudeau lived through the race on social day. Facebook pages went without updates. Well, all but one leader’s, media the same way many of the people under 40 who of course. On October 20, Justin voted for him live—naturally. His older, more conven- Trudeau’s digital channels pushed tional rivals were out-selfied, out-tweeted and outrun. out the images and messages of a leader busy at work in his new role as Prime Minister-designate of Canada.

November/December 2015 54 What role did social media play in the 42nd federal election? Did the While digital channels were in existence during the bouquets and brickbats traded over last federal election in 2011, this was to be the first Twitter help push Trudeau over the Canadian campaign where they were to play a significant, top? Were local campaigns able to if not central, role. use social media to get out their vote? Or were they largely a distrac- tion, a forum for tripping up candidates and drumming them off the in the advertising war. Did it play the NDP on Facebook (whoops). The campaign stage? out that way? NDP then punted a Nova Scotia candidate for her own Facebook mis- Much—perhaps too much—has Upon first glance, the numbers cer- deeds, wherein she suggested that been written about social media tainly sound impressive. For example, Israel engaged in “ethnic cleansing”. and its ability to influence political seven million Facebook users contrib- Next, up it was the Liberals, who lost outcomes. President Barack Obama uted to over 50 million interactions a Calgary-area candidate over a se- is frequently held up as the poster about the election, including posts, ries of controversial tweets drafted boy for digital change; his rise from likes, comments and shares. There when she was a teenager (she’s now outsider to Commander-in-Chief were over 3.2 million tweets tagged 21). Not to be outdone, Conservative is often attributed to his ability to with the #elxn42 hashtag on Twit- Gilles Guibord was sent overboard connect with younger generations ter, five times more than the last go for making sexist remarks in the com- through these new communications around. New channels like Instagram ments section of a newspaper’s web- platforms. were populated with photos of the site. And in perhaps the campaign’s leaders and their campaigns on a daily most memorable social media snafu, basis. Parties plonked their ads online. Seven million the NDP’s Alex Johnstone made rude But did any of it matter? comments under a picture of Aus- Facebook users chwitz in 2008 and then confessed contributed to over 50 While it’s too early yet to fully quan- to a reporter in 2015 that she didn’t million interactions about tify the impact that digital and social know what Auschwitz was. the election, including posts, media had on this campaign, early returns show that Trudeau and his likes, comments and shares. team did a better job of bringing their Meet the new There were over 3.2 million preferred ballot question of “change” normal; the urge to tweets tagged with the to the electorate via digital platforms. commit our every thought and emotion to the digital #elxn42 hashtag on Twitter, And of course, there were also digital five times more than the last attacks; indeed, the most significant ether isn’t going to go away. go around. effects had nothing to do with the The next generation of use of social media during the cam- candidates will have lived paign, they were about what candi- their lives in public long dates said there before they started campaigning. before they get into public But are these channels the key to life. And that, as we’ve now reaching young voters who are dis- very campaign features the re- witnessed, has enchanted and disengaged with moval of a candidate or two consequences. politics? Or are they only as strong for boneheaded-ness. But the as the source material behind them? E bloody digital parade from the 42nd If the leader and the message aren’t campaign was sans pareil. Meet the compelling or engaging, can they be new normal; the urge to commit our dressed up that way online? every thought and emotion to the Of course, digital and social channels digital ether isn’t going to go away. didn’t make candidates do and say While digital channels were in exis- The next generation of candidates stupid things; they’ve always done tence during the last federal election will have lived their lives in public and said stupid things. All these plat- in 2011, this was to be the first Ca- long before they get into public life. forms have done is preserve them is nadian campaign where they were to And that, as we’ve now witnessed, aspic so they can be unearthed by play a significant, if not central, role. has consequences. political research teams at the oppor- With fewer of us watching so-called tune moment. Social media doesn’t “linear” television, the digital play- First, the Conservatives turfed a kill candidates, stupid candidates kill ground was to be a significant front Montreal candidate for promoting candidates.

Policy 55 Gaffes aside, digital and social plat- and picture in the run-up to e-day 250,000 views online in the final forms did play a more positive role in referenced crowds of people touting week of the campaign. framing the leaders in their bids to be “change”. prime minister. For Harper, the cho- The Liberals also made the most ef- sen message was “proven leadership” In contrast, Stephen Harper’s digital fective use of their owned channels and for the two opposition leaders efforts were rote, business-like, and to encourage people to “go knock the digital pitch was for “change”. devoid of emotion—much like the doors” and vote. Without these caricature of the man himself. They types of calls to action, social posts It was the latter that proved the attempted to generate engagement are no more valuable than hot air. more powerful online. And it was and issue support but rarely suc- the Liberals that deployed it more ceeded at reaching beyond his core In the end, it was fatigue with Harper effectively. In many ways, it was supporters. Meanwhile, Mulcair’s and his political style that propelled an open door on which to push; re- annoying habit of posting messages the desire for change. Canadians search demonstrates that people pre- in the third person on his Twitter had two options for that change; as fer to share positive material on their feed matched his campaign’s over- long as Mr. Harper was able to keep social channels. By way of contrast, all discomfort at playing the role Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair only the committed partisan is ready of “centrist” New Democrats. The competitive with each other, he had to sling mud in the service of their whole point of these channels is au- a chance for political survival. thenticity and it came through that preferred party on public channels. By performing ably on the stump and both Harper and Mulcair weren’t Trudeau’s pledges of optimism and in debates, and by driving his ballot digital natives. “hope and hard work” were there- question of change both on and of- fore better suited to mass distribu- Of course, Harper and Mulcair are fline, Trudeau was able to overtake tion on social media than Harper’s political natives, and it was in the the NDP and become Canada’s 23rd dire warnings of economic chaos, or raw politics that their advantage prime minister. Tom Mulcair’s more measured ap- over Trudeau was supposed to lie. peal for a responsible and serious Both the Conservative and NDP NDP government. presumed that Trudeau would mis- While it is tempting speak his way into a gaffe worthy of to credit digital and rebroadcasting through advertising. social media with the The Liberals’ Unfortunately for them, not only Trudeau victory, in the end advertising did Trudeau avoid any serious errors, they were only reflections of generated more views online his (federally) novice campaign team a candidate that was better- also came up with the more effective than either of their main advertising and then deployed it prepared, determined to be opponents, across all more effectively online. positive, and comfortable in platforms. They also his own skin. The proof is in the pudding: the Lib- (largely) stuck to a sunnier erals’ advertising generated more tone, in keeping with views online than either of their Trudeau’s main themes of main opponents, across all plat- positivity and change. forms. They also (largely) stuck to And while it is tempting to credit digi- a sunnier tone, in keeping with tal and social media with the Trudeau Trudeau’s main themes of positivity victory, in the end they were only re- and change. flections of a candidate that was better-prepared, determined to be posi- First, the Liberals took the Conser- tive, and comfortable in his own skin. The medium is also better suited to vatives’ main attack head on, with After nearly ten years of the cool cal- Trudeau’s personality. A strong re- Trudeau repeating the Tory negative culations of Harper, Canadians were tail politician, Trudeau clearly rel- and declaring himself “ready” to ready to step into the sun. ishes the crowds and encouraged govern. And then, in the ad of the lots of personal contact. This also campaign, he enlisted 94-year old Contributing Writer Andrew translated into lots of selfies for both former Mississauga mayor Hazel Mc- MacDougall, former director of his, and his admirers’, social chan- Callion to rebut Harper’s assertions communications for former nels. It contributed to a digitally that Trudeau would cut benefits Prime Minister Harper, is a senior palpable sense of momentum, espe- for seniors. It was an original and executive consultant at MSLGROUP cially in the campaign’s final weeks; compelling way to derail a Harper in London, England. almost every Trudeau post, tweet, attack—and it quickly generated [email protected]

November/December 2015 56

Stephen Harper kept saying the election was “not about me.” Millennial voters were not so sure. Tumbler image Death by a Million Clicks: How the Tories Failed to Win Millennials Grace MacDonald

In this election campaign, public perceptions of leaders, n awful lot can happen in especially among millennials, were shaped and shifted two months. That kind of A time span could be a decent more than ever on social media. Youth turnout at the chunk of a sports season or a solid polls, especially in advance voting, was unprecedented. childhood summer vacation. This year’s election campaign took even The combination of social media impact and millennial longer, clocking in at a record 78 voter engagement was likely a key factor in the outcome. days; long enough for an entire bat- Montreal millennial Grace MacDonald looks at the cam- talion of young Canadians to reach paign for her target demographic. voting age. Surprisingly, one subset of the population that didn’t lose steam was the youth vote (as none of us call ourselves), a group often dismissed as being unreachable due to its apathy. But apathy is the one thing that

Policy 57 we didn’t see this year—at least not No matter how many times Harper claimed that this from millennials. From the Montreal protests of Printemps ‘15 to the high- election was not about him, the photomanipulations est youth turnout in recent memory, and humour posts certainly were: and once millennials young Canadians have shown that started to edit phallic objects into his press photographs, his they have plenty to say about policy. fate was most likely sealed. Many have chalked this up to the success of Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, which was the most successful so far in harnessing the youth demo- efitted the Tories with young voters where it was difficult, but still pos- graphic, and which triumphed partly to enter the race with a fraction more sible, to control the flow of informa- because of it. humility and self-awareness transmit- tion and therefore opinion. Informa- Everyone loves an underdog story. ted on social media. There’s been an tion is the currency of this political The Green Party’s exclusion from unusual amount of discussion regard- age, and it flows faster than ever be- campaign events such as the major ing social media in this election, and fore in human history: secrets are it began before the campaign was debates might have earned them sym- now an endangered species. launched, which should have given pathy regardless, but Elizabeth May both the NDP and the Conservatives Mulcair was eclipsed by Trudeau on managed to turn it into an opportu- to plan social media strategies that social media, but the mainstream nity to sass her way into the spotlight were more than just an extension of news made up for it in defining him with a parallel performance on Twit- their press releases. for politically engaged millennials: In ter that made her a star with young attempting to be more appealing, the voters on social media. But it takes Social media is typically deeply Am- NDP leader watered himself down to more than sass to win votes, and the erocentric in both its news and the the point of watering down his par- Greens held on to May’s single seat lens through which that informa- ty’s positions. based on her policy and personality; tion is ingested. And while most of but also made no gains. it was the expected intelligent (or Funnily enough, Trudeau’s online otherwise) discourse, there was also a presence truly exploded after the win: While the NDP tried energetically to surprising burst of memes and mac- when the rest of the world discov- overcome the burden of the much ros, most of them mocking Harper ered that our new leader is conven- beloved Jack Layton’s popularity and himself. No matter how many times tionally attractive. Apparently, this relatability, Mulcair never quite con- he claimed that this election was not is such a rare quality in a politician nected on social media, and his ef- about him, the photomanipulations that global citizens had no idea how forts to do so registered among young and humour posts certainly were: to react, other than loudly expressing voters— and possibly the wider elec- and once millennials started to edit their lust on Twitter. Ironically, the torate—as inauthenticity. While cartoon sex toys into his wire photos, same young demographic that may door-knocking with a group of nearly his fate was most likely sealed. be called shallow by opponents for a dozen Liberal volunteers in Mon- helping him win a majority has been treal, we crossed paths with a posse of And right before the election it- largely unimpressed by this. Personal NPD knockers only two strong. self, Harper affiliated himself with and political blogs have decried this a known racist, sexist addict; and it reaction for glossing over Trudeau’s This played out on Election Day turned out that what the public knew flaws; reminding us that while he when the former Orange Wave votes about Rob Ford at the time was only might be preferable to the alterna- jumped ship, with moderates across the tip of the iceberg. Almost imme- tives, that doesn’t mean he’s perfect. the country shifting to red, and even diately after Harper aligned himself the moderate right shifting over. The with the Toronto sideshow of the But he is a welcome change, and one gains for the Bloc took some of us by Ford brothers, excerpts were leaked that was a long time coming. From surprise, but perhaps they shouldn’t from Uncontrollable, the insider’s the campaign length to the voter have. Nine years is an awfully long story of Ford’s spiral into abusing turnout, this year’s election broke re- time, and even Bloc voters whose ide- not only hard drugs, but the people cords; we can only hope that one of als align with Stephen Harper’s have around him. To anyone with a news- those sets a new precedent. Because gotten sick of him, but they were feed and a memory span longer than if campaigns keep getting longer, the hardly about to give more power to a week, the damage was done. debate schedule will start looking like the Liberals; no matter how frustrat- a hockey season. ed they were with the Tories. lot of these gaffes can be traced to the same source, Social Media Editor Grace MacDonald aving burned through a A which is that the Conserva- is a recent graduate of Concordia great deal of their goodwill, tives have been the slowest to adapt. University in Fine Arts (Film). H it probably would have ben- They’re used to operating in a world [email protected]

November/December 2015 58

Column / Don Newman Why Justin May Be the Tougher Trudeau

ons of famous men often have Pierre Trudeau was recruited by the ties still believed that Justin Trudeau trouble living up to their fathers’ Liberals in 1965 as one of the three was a lightweight and that if he did S accomplishments and reputa- Quebec “wise men” to run for the run for the leadership it would be at tions. Even if they have what, for most party in the general election that a later date. But Trudeau, his friends people, would be a perfectly good ca- year. Parachuted into the safe, largely Gerry Butts, Tom Pitfield, Dominique reer, it usually falls short of their fa- anglophone riding of Mount Royal, Leblanc and others realized that if he ther’s accomplishments and because Trudeau cruised to victory, immedi- did not run in 2013, there might not of that they are judged to be failures. ately became one of Prime Minister be a party left to lead after another Even the success they do have is often Lester Pearson’s parliamentary secre- election. As it turned out, this was attributed to their more famous and taries and then was promoted to jus- Trudeau’s time. successful progenitor. tice minister. When Pearson stepped down in early 1968, he personally he historically long 2015 cam- Until the evening of October 19, Jus- encouraged Trudeau to run to succeed paign was meant to expose tin Trudeau was in danger of falling him as Liberal leader. Trudeau auto- T Trudeau as “just not ready,” as into that classification. His father, matically became Prime Minister, set- the Conservative attack ads said. So Pierre Elliott Trudeau, was a dominant ting off Trudeaumania and propelling were a series of debates that Harper figure in the second half of the 20th the Liberals to a majority government contrived and NDP leader Tom Mul- Century as Canada’s prime minister — after two minorities under Pearson. cair agreed to. But as the campaign patriating the Constitution, authoring A more gilded pathway to the top and the debates progressed Trudeau the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, smoothed by others is hard to imag- progressed along with them, gain- staring down separatist terrorism in ine. When he won his majority in ing in confidence and gaining in the October of 1970 and winning the June 1968, he was three months shy polls. By election night, the Liberals 1980 Quebec referendum. True, all of of his 49th birthday. and their leader were in full com- those actions often generated as much mand. Justin Trudeau had taken the contempt as admiration, but there is Compare that with the younger Liberals from third place to a majority no doubt that Trudeau the elder was Trudeau. In 2008 he won a contest- government of 184 MPs. He was one a larger-than-life figure whose legacy ed nomination in the gritty, franco- and a half months short of his forty- his eldest son Justin inherited when phone riding of Papineau in the heart fourth birthday—five years younger he gave the eulogy at his father’s fu- of Montreal, then took on and defeat- than his father when he became prime neral in 2000. ed a previously popular sitting Bloc minister—and had conquered a much Québécois MP and won after a tough tougher path. He also threw caution to the wind fight. He entered Parliament and went During one of the debates, after a par- when, in 2008, he adopted his father’s directly to the backbench on the Op- ticularly egregious slur against his fa- calling and became a politician. Fol- position side. No one was seeking to ther by Mulcair, Trudeau put him in lowing directly in his father’s footsteps smooth his way. Senior Liberals, some his place with the reply: “I am proud invited inevitable comparison, but so with ambitions of their own, were to be the son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau far, it is the son who is out-achieving not prepared to risk comparison with and the values he stood for.” the father. a Trudeau, albeit one many were privately dismissing as a lightweight. On the night of October 19, you could hen people think of Pierre only imagine the feelings of pride Trudeau they think of his After the Liberal debacle of the 2011 were being reciprocated. W entire political career, and election, the party was reduced to a measure Justin against that. What is rump of 34 seats, the New Democrats Don Newman is a special adviser at fair is to consider where Justin is in his were now the official opposition and Navigator Ltd., Chairman of Canada own career, and then compare that many were openly judging the elec- 2020, and a lifetime member of the against where his father was at the toral wounds fatal. Liberals and almost Canadian Parliamentary Press Gallery. same stage in his. everyone in the other political par- [email protected]

Policy 59

In the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia a father carries his daughter to Gevgelija train station where they will register with the authorities before proceeding north towards Serbia. Like many others here, this family is from Syria. Flickr photo: Stephen Ryan/ IFRC Crisis and the European Union, Part Two: The Refugees Jeremy Kinsman

The European Union was born as the dream of prag- he greatest migration crisis matic visionaries as a response to and bulwark against since the Second World War T is testing the European Union’s the manifest horror of organized evil. Its strengths were resiliency, some say its survivability. evident for decades before two successive calamities— The problem is here to stay, as the Syr- ian war has no end in sight. the 2008 ﬁnancial meltdown and the 2015 refugee crisis—exposed its vulnerabilities. While both have Chancellor Angela Merkel insists Ger- many can settle a million arrivals this tested the EU’s structural and philosophical sound- year. But Germany’s EU partners, re- ness, veteran Canadian diplomat Jeremy Kinsman ﬂecting a surge in nativist public push- warns never to bet against Brussels. back, are cautious. The 21st century has been rough on the historic European project. The “Europe, whole and free” that emerged

November/December 2015 60 in 1989 is fractious, stumbling, and in Ukraine, violent. Retiring US Publics push back against the voluntarily pooling of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin sovereignty symbolized by the marquee Dempsey recently told Politico that achievements of a common currency, and a border-free “As recently as four years ago, white common travel space under the Schengen Accord. papers and plans within the (NATO) alliance began with some version of the following sentence, ‘Europe is experiencing an age of prosperity and peace unlike any in its his- tween austerity and Keynesian stim- ing challenge than integrating peo- tory.’ My challenge to my NATO col- ulus goes on, but not as a fatalistic ple of other cultures and religions leagues now is, ‘If you can still write discussion of the EU’s survival. from distant wars and continents that sentence with candour and a and distributing them to countries The new crisis over refugees seems straight face, please give me a call. that see historic social achievements more catastrophic because it cuts Because I just don’t see it that way.” challenged by what they regard as to pre-existing existential issues of backward and alien beliefs. Publics push back against the vol- identity and community. While it untarily pooling of sovereignty combines the same conflict—pit- While German opinion has cooled symbolized by the marquee achieve- ting national political sovereignty under the flood of arrivals, initial ments of a common currency, and against deference to solidarity and polling this summer showed 96 per a border-free common travel space common rules—it is considerably cent of Germans welcomed refugees under the Schengen Accord. Euro- more combustible politically be- in principle, while 71 per cent of skeptics doubted the EU would sur- cause it is a crisis about people rather Czechs opposed them. vive the evidence of dysfunction than about process. exposed by the financial crash and The staggering number of displaced economic slump in 2008 that ulti- But in more people in the world—60 million—is mately prompted the Greek insol- immigration- the greatest since the end of the Sec- vency crisis. ond World War. experienced states such as Holland and Denmark, oth crises, financial and refu- Stalin and Hitler uprooted and forc- people recoil at the notion gee, challenge the principle of ibly relocated 30 million people be- B solidarity that has been the tween 1939 and 1943. At war’s end that hard-won leitmotif of the European project in 1945, the process was reversed: achievements such as since its beginnings in the rubble of seven million Germans fled from gender equality and the the Second World War. the Red Army; three million were ex- separation of religion from pelled from the Czech Sudetenland, But a longer positive view sees such millions more from Poland, ex- public life can be jarred by crises as normal for the never-ending Yugoslavia, Romania and Hungary. newcomers who shroud EU work-in-progress that adapts the Other ethnic groups shifted; Roma- unprecedented political project from women in black and hold crisis to crisis. It emerges strength- nians, Hungarians, Poles, Ukrainians for Sharia law. ened from each, institutions and changed places. Historically plural- dynamics adjusted to ever-changing ist nation-states became ethnically political complexities of a 28-mem- homogeneous. ber union of half a billion disparate Yet, Germany acquired a massive Czech anxiety at being “overrun” seems misplaced as Muslims repre- inhabitants. vocation for refugee settlement. The sent only 0.1 per cent of the popu- German Constitution (the Grundg- For international media, the Greek lation. But in more immigration- esetz) stipulates refugee acceptance, debt crisis was a perfect storm of experienced states such as Holland an obligation taken up by all Euro- destructive collision on financial, and Denmark, people recoil at the pean democracies in 1951 for asy- behavioral, political, and even cul- notion that hard-won achievements lum-seekers from Europe itself, and tural levels that exposed fatal flaws such as gender equality and the sep- extended to refugees from elsewhere in EU governance. Today, that crisis aration of religion from public life in 1962. (Turkey declined to do so). has subsided. The Greek economy can be jarred by newcomers who has challenges but Spain, Portugal, shroud women in black and hold for ut re-integrating ethnic Ger- and Italy have stabilized. Structural Sharia law. design in the management of the mans as the collateral out European monetary zone has been B come of a Germany-launched The rise of nativist, populist political improved. The dialectical debate be- European war is a vastly less daunt- parties predates this year’s refugee

Policy 61 wave but immigration now tops voters’ concerns for the ﬁrst time in 42 years of Eurobarometer polling.

Identity-based parties such as Marine Le Pen’s Front National, the Belgian Vlams Blok, the Pim Fortuyn list in Holland, the Danish Peoples’ Party, the True Finns, Austria’s Freedom Party, or UKIP claim two central grievances: domination by a bureau- cratic top-down Brussels machine and being over-run by “others.”

In reality, their political fuel is fear of change. Immigration is a surro- gate. Many believe the EU expanded too far and fast. Economic downturn ushered in corrective austerity that has cut into publicly financed pension programs. New issues of reli- French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been the gious clothing and separate cultural progressive leaders of the EU during the refugee crisis. Flickr photo facilities rattled old cultural certain- ties. Jihadist terrorism added to the anxious mix. EU countries largely stopped recruit- rian” high-rise ghettos beyond the ment immigration decades ago. Paris peripherique are French kids, but Attachment to the EU of countries Their unsought “immigrants” today don’t feel it. that joined from the former War- are refugees with no prior dual con- Is the surge of people into the EU saw Pact is fraying. The Europe they tract, usually concentrated in two or avoidable? longed to re-join imposed a process three nationalities per destination. of diligent examination of their cre- They band together in ghettos and Refugees and economic migrants dentials for membership they found can dominate school districts, inhib- pour into Europe from war zones humiliating and is now mandating iting assimilation. and from Africa because of the mag- internal imperatives of unfamiliar netic attraction of the EU economy, pluralism. Authoritarian Hungarian the generosity of its provisions, and Prime Minister Viktor Orban warns Canada’s annual because they can reach it. Interna- “Europe’s Christian identity is un- take of about tional efforts to smash the smug- der threat.” Promoting “illiberalism” 25,000 refugees a year glers’ networks are stymied by the over democratic liberalism, he chal- anarchy reigning in Libya and by lenges the inherent democratic voca- acclimatize within a larger ambivalence over the effectiveness tion of the EU enlargement process. pool of 250,000 committed, and cost of robust protection of Eu- rope’s coasts. The principle of pro- Immigrant integration in EU coun- qualified, or family-based cessing refugees at perimeter points tries has generally not gone well. selected entrants in a of entry has failed in practice in part Newcomers are not “immigrants” process that aims at because of inadequate support for in the meaning Canadians give to integration. Newcomers are Italy and Greece from EU partners. applicants from outside. We recruit sourced from a dozen states potential new Canadians via a dual For about $2,500 each, refugees contract—they accept our society’s and religions. undertake voyages of terrible hard- terms (the Charter of Rights) and we ship and danger, breaching an EU judge their ability to integrate eco- front-line too extensive to control nomically and linguistically. Can- effectively, across the Mediterranean ada’s annual take of about 25,000 ost governments have been to Italy from Libya in perilous ves- refugees a year acclimatize within a slow to promote public vis- sels (4,000 have died this summer), larger pool of 250,000 committed, H ibility of different faces, or over land to the Turkish coast qualified, or family-based selected whether minority police on the beat, to Greece, and through Macedonia entrants in a process that aims at or news anchors on TV. Alienation to central Europe. Once they reach integration. Newcomers are sourced has been generations in the mak- the EU, their claims to asylum from from a dozen states and religions. ing. French kids from the “Alge- life-threatening danger at home are

November/December 2015 62 weighed by EU member state authorities. Increasingly, economic migrants are denied entry, starting with Balkan countries that account- ed for 40 per cent of asylum applica- tions that are now designated “safe” and ineligible.

Syrian refugees drawn from six million displaced Syrians mostly residing in refugee camps in Turkey, Jor- dan, and Lebanon now account for 40 per cent of asylum seekers and over 80 per cent are accepted.

The process of validation (others now pretend to be Syrian) and the separation of refugees from economic migrants has been expedited and simplified, but still takes months and months. The young male migrants are tenacious and, to Europe- ans, curiously entitled in belief that their quest for lives in the EU represents a human right. A Syrian refugee from Deir Ezzor, holding his son and daughter, breaks out in tears of joy after arriving via a flimsy inflatable boat crammed with about 15 men, women and children on the This international crisis should not shore of the island of Kos in Greec. Daniel Etter/The New York Times Flickr photo be for Europeans alone to manage, but North Americans and others ernment’s divisive attempts to pan- is the political reality for Europeans. are hanging back, leaving the EU der to bias against “the other” have exposed practically and politically. created a counter-storm, construc- Of course, major disputes and hur- Success will depend on political lead- tive optimism can ring truer with dles always loom, including the ers’ ability to sustain public confi- people than radiating the fear of a threat that the historically ambiva- dence in the capacity to process and worse future ahead. lent UK will withdraw altogether. absorb asylum-seekers, while closing the borders to straightforward But the project has nourished, over economic migrants, knowing that Syrian refugees time, shared reflexes of a contested a longer-term process of settlement drawn from six but ultimately consensual political immigration will still be needed to million displaced Syrians culture that is the everyday reality of address the EU’s underlying demo- governance in Europe. That there is graphic deficit. mostly residing in refugee no common identity among the EU’s camps in Turkey, Jordan, historic nationalities is no weakness as The emergence of Germany as and Lebanon now account long as there is a commonality of view uncontested European leader is that at the end of the day EU mem- the decisive new development. A for 40 per cent of asylum bers are in this together. Don’t bet on Merkel-led working circle including seekers and over 80 per cent them to fail this ultimate test. François Hollande and Prime Minis- are accepted. ter Manuel Valls in France, Matteo Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman Renzi in Italy, EU Council President was a longtime Canadian ambassador, Donald Tusk of Poland and Commis- notably to Russia and the European sion President Jean-Claude Juncker Union. He is now on the faculty of drives policy response and program Constructive optimism has always the University of California, Berkeley construction. Cautious buy-in from been the point of the European and Ryerson University in Toronto. most of the rest of the EU recognizes project, borne from a calamitous [email protected] the EU obligation to admit refugees past that now is beyond most living if not to impose national quotas. memories. It has succeeded, crisis by But are elected leaders up to taking crisis, in shoring up and fine-tuning on populist adversaries at home? As the voluntary pooling of interde- in Canada, where the Harper gov- pendent national sovereignties that

Policy 63

The skyline of downtown Toronto. When the lights went out in a cold snap last Christmas, it brought the importance of electricity home to Torontonians. Policy photo Electricity: Canada’s Physical Heartbeat

Sergio Marchi

Canada will need to invest $350 billion by 2030 to lectricity has been called “the renew the country’s electricity system that is so vital to great enabler” of modern society. E It is central to our lives and our the country’s prosperity and very way of life. Canada’s country. In a word, indispensable. reputation as a clean electricity country is one of the The question, however, is how do we best in the world. Fully 80 per cent of the Canadian ensure its sustainability and reliability grid is non-greenhouse gas emitting, compared to only for generations to come? In addressing this concern, let me touch on ﬁve inter- 31 per cent in the US. Renewing the Canadian system, related factors; writes the President of the Canadian Electricity Asso- First, Canada’s electricity grid is at an ciation, is a nation-building challenge. inﬂection point today.

The decisions we make—or fail to make—will have repercussions for

November/December 2015 64 many years. And that’s because many of Canada’s electricity assets are Many of Canada’s electricity assets are reaching the reaching the end of their lifecycle, end of their lifecycle, which can range from 30 years which can range from 30 years for for a utility pole, to as much as a century for a power plant. a utility pole, to as much as a cen- Quite simply, much of the system built a generation ago, tury for a power plant. Quite simply, much of the system built a genera- now needs to be replaced or refurbished. tion ago, now needs to be replaced or refurbished.

As a result, we’ll need to make sig- if we don’t make these investments? Governments and regulators have nificant investments just to maintain What if we just kick the can further the justifiable role of protecting the the reliability we enjoy today. More- down the road? consumer. As well, Canadians have over, the lead times are measured in certain priorities for—and expecta- The consequences of that choice are decades. We therefore don’t have the tions of—their utility companies. quite clear and significant. There will luxury of waiting, if we’re going to They want them to listen to their be less than reliable electricity; a loss build the electricity system Canadi- needs as customers and run their op- in quality of life; foregone economic ans want and need. erations efficiently. opportunities; and a less competitive economy. All because of the poten- I have no difficulties with this The Conference tial for more disruptions caused by whatsoever. increased brownouts or blackouts. Board of Canada However, protecting the consumer is estimates that from 2010 Think about the 2013 ice storm in not only about procuring the cheap- until 2030, we’ll need to Toronto and what it was like for est-priced equipment and systems. If thousands of people trying to cook that is the sole driver, then the future invest some $350 billion in their Christmas turkeys on the bar- dependability of our electricity will our electricity system to meet beque—or seniors trapped in homes be jeopardized. Instead, we must also the demands of a growing without heat. protect the consumer from a reliability standpoint, and that means build- population and new Ask them about the importance of ing well and smart. technologies. electricity. About taking it for grant- ed. Then, project those images ahead Fourth, the design of an electricity 10, 20 years, if we don’t upgrade our and energy strategy, cannot be di- system. Not a very pleasant thought. vorced from environmental consid- The Conference Board of Canada es- erations and obligations. Energy and timates that from 2010 until 2030, ailing to invest now will the environment must be one seam- we’ll need to invest some $350 bil- bring other—and greater— less policy framework. lion in our electricity system to meet costs down the road. the demands of a growing population F hen it comes to the envi- and new technologies. Third, rather than only looking at ronment, CEA is proud of the costs of electricity—which is a sig- That’s a lot of money. And a major its accomplishments. In- nificant variable—we must also con- W rebuild. But Canada is not alone in deed, Canada’s electricity industry sider its value to Canadians. We need confronting this challenge. Europe, is one of the cleanest in the world. to consider both, and when we do, for example, will need to invest more Nationally, more than 80 per cent of I would argue it’s a very compelling than $2 trillion, between now and our electricity is non-greenhouse gas value proposition. 2035, and the United States, $2 tril- emitting. By comparison, the Inter- lion by 2030. According to Statistics Canada, elec- national Energy Agency reports that tricity costs amount to about $3.59 the corresponding figure in Germany Second, no one likes paying more per day for most Canadians—which is 41 percent; the US 31 percent; and for their electricity. Homeowners is under 2 per cent of all household Japan, 15 percent. don’t like it and neither do business- spending. A very modest cost for es. And when you potentially have We are also well positioned to decar- something that is absolutely critical unhappy consumers, you have a bonize other sectors of the economy, to our modern lives. How does this perfect storm for political inaction, such as transportation, which ac- cost stack up internationally? The In- and short term thinking. counts for nearly one quarter of our ternational Energy Agency submits carbon footprint. I’m a former elected official. I get that. that Canadian residential prices are But I’m also a realist. So let’s look at lower than those in Japan, the U.K., Naturally, other challenges, such it from a different perspective. What and the U.S. as the continuing impacts of cli-

Policy 65

The Economic Impact of 2012 to 2030 Investing in Electricity Infrastructure $15 Source: Shedding Light on the billion Economic Impact of Investing in Electricity Infrastructure, Conference Board of Canada, 2011. Total

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mate change, including more severe nadians want their leaders to join oth- anything less than its “A” game. weather events, continue to test us. er nations in constructively tackling It is therefore essential for PM According to the Insurance Bureau of the threat this global challenge poses. Trudeau to harness our energy assets Canada, the December 2013 ice storm Finding this common ground is a nat- for the benefit of all Canadians. This in Toronto resulted in $200 million in ural segue to the final factor—political will require an era of closer federal- insured losses and pushed that year’s and policy leadership. provincial cooperation. severe weather-related insured losses to over $3 billion—the highest in Ca- It is said that all politics is local, and He should be willing, as promised in nadian history. Consequently, our the marathon federal election we just his campaign, to use the First Min- electricity system has to be more ro- went through played largely to script. isters’ Conferences as a platform to bust and resilient to better respond to I say unfortunately, because elections facilitate the development and im- weather events. should also be an opportunity to de- plementation of a national energy bate big issues; to define national strategy, so as to complete the work ambitions; and to shape long-term the premiers have so ably begun Canada’s electricity horizons. through the Council of the Federa- industry is one of the tion. From an energy policy perspec- cleanest in the world. ne of those big issues that tive, our country cannot afford dis- Nationally, more than 80 Canada’s new Liberal major- cord between our two senior levels O ity government must ur- of government. percent of our electricity is gently tackle is the development of a non-greenhouse gas Canadian energy strategy. In this process, the federal government must develop an engaging rela- emitting. By comparison, the Canada is blessed with an abundance tionship with the private sector, and International Energy Agency of natural resources, accounting for forge a genuine partnership with Ab- reports that the about 20 per cent of our GDP, and original communities. Both must be corresponding figure in supporting almost two million jobs. built on mutual trust. Yet, we are not leveraging those as- As well, electricity cannot be treated as Germany is 41 percent; the sets for maximum economic benefit. US 31 percent; and Japan, a second class energy ‘cousin’. It needs Someone once said that natural re- and deserves equal billing. As impor- 15 percent. sources is Canada’s “family business”, tant as the oil and gas sector is, our which is an interesting way to frame national economy cannot function it. But a family business without a busi- effectively without reliable electric- ness plan is not smart, and very risky! ity. Governments must therefore ap- On the eve of the UN Climate Change proach electricity policy-making in a meeting in Paris, our provincial and Demand for energy, especially from comprehensive and strategic fashion. federal governments must find com- emerging nations, will continue to mon ground. Industry needs policy surge. But the global competition to Furthermore, while electricity is coherence and certainty, and one that supply those countries will be fierce, provincially wired constitutionally, is economically responsible. And Ca- and Canada cannot afford to bring the federal government plays a sub-

November/December 2015 66 stantial role. Besides its financial and political muscle, over 30 federal On the eve of the UN Climate Change meeting in departments and agencies—34 to Paris, our provincial and federal governments be exact—have a direct impact on must find common ground. Industry needs policy electricity policy. This is no small coherence and certainty, and one that is economically undertaking. On the contrary, it is a mandate responsibility that requires responsible. And Canadians want their leaders to join policy coherence and political lead- other nations in constructively tackling the threat this ership at the senior echelons of the global challenge poses. federal government. In closing, electricity is the physical heartbeat of Canadian society. structure projects. Think of the great to build something important and railways of the 19th century, or the enduring. lectricity is indispensable to Trans-Canada Highway, St. Lawrence our way of life, contributes to Seaway and CBC in the 20th century. I believe the responsibility and benefits E a low-carbon future, and is We have understood the impor- are clear. And I believe the time is now. delivered through a vast, sophisti- tance of investing today for a better Let’s invest today, for sustainable, re- cated national grid, for a relatively tomorrow, of adopting a pan-Cana- liable electrical power tomorrow. low cost. I think that’s real value, and dian vision. something worth investing in. Sergio Marchi is President and And each time we did, it was transfor- But there’s one final reason we should mative—uniting our country, facilitat- CEO of the Canadian Electricity make these investments—and that’s ing the movement of people, goods, Association. He is a former MP and our obligation to the future. We need and services, and laying the founda- served as minister of Citizenship and to leave our children and grandchil- tion for future economic prosperity. Immigration, International Trade, and dren a system at least as good as the the Environment. He later served as a one our parents built. It’s called nation building. Canada’s ambassador to the World Throughout our country’s history, Today, we are again at one of those Trade Organization and UN Agencies in Canada has undertaken major infra- transformative moments. A time Geneva. [email protected]

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COR-5453-A-POLICY.indd 14 2015-08-06 13:52 Document: COR-5453-A-POLICY Format (Po): 8.5 po X 5.5 po Coordo: Véronique Format (col x ag): -- ÉPREUVE Publication: Policy Safety: 0.75 po Bleed: 0,125 LEFT + RIGHT Parution: DEPOT 10 Aout FOND 01 par : Fernando Tremblay-Bouchard Jrnl Enr 67

CN Photo Building on Strong Foundations as a Backbone of the Economy

Claude Mongeau

From a drain on federal coffers for decades as a crown rior to Confederation, railways corporation, CN has become the most profitable rail- were built as public works proj- P ects pushed by leaders of vision way in North America as a private company. On the looking to open up a new economy in a 20th anniversary of its initial public offering (IPO) un- vast unreached landscape. While building railways over such large, often under Paul Tellier, CN CEO Claude Mongeau reflects on a forgiving terrain, was difficult, running historic journey, and on challenges that lie ahead for a them efficiently and profitably would regulated industry. prove even more challenging. CN can trace its pedigree back to Cana- da’s first public railway, the Champlain

November/December 2015 68 and St. Lawrence Railroad, which ran its first steam locomotive-pulled train By the 1970s, the federal government and CN’s between Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and management began taking steps to put CN on a La Prairie near Montreal in 1836. path, albeit a slow one, to commercial viability. The change More than 80 years later, the gov- started to accelerate in the 1980s as the government grew ernment of Canada amalgamated, increasingly eager to reduce the chronic and massive under its control, several financially- strapped, privately-owned railroads deficits that were choking the country. to create Canadian National Rail- ways. On June 6, 1919, CN initially formed what Montreal historian Donald MacKay coined “a mosaic of holders began to value the company in 1998, was the purchase of the Illi- mismatched parts.” during what would become a long nois Central Railroad, a move that ex- period of support, helping CN in the panded CN’s US network beyond the For much of its history as a Crown process to finance its capital require- Midwest and to the Gulf of Mexico. Corporation, constrained by gov- ments and the deployment of its stra- Subsequent acquisitions of the Wis- ernment ownership, CN was often a tegic agenda. consin Central and regional railroads drain on federal coffers. By the 1970s, in Minnesota directly linked Western the federal government and CN’s CN’s successful transformation and Canada to US markets in the Ameri- management began taking steps to progress over the last 20 years needed can Midwest and South. Acquiring put CN on a path, albeit a slow one, more than the momentum provided the Elgin, Joliet and Eastern allowed to commercial viability. The change by privatization. To begin with, it CN—for the first time—to link its started to accelerate in the 1980s as required a regulatory environment five rail lines entering Chicago into the government grew increasingly ea- that encourages investment and in- one seamless system, enabling us to ger to reduce the chronic and massive novation, and market-based deci- by-pass the infamously congested rail deficits that were choking the coun- sions overall. That environment re- corridors of the Windy City. CN also try. During this period, CN divested ally started to emerge in Canada in made significant investments in its non-core assets such as CN’s hotel 1987, when the National Transporta- Canadian franchise, when it acquired and telecommunications businesses, tion Act recognized the right of rail- BC Rail in 2004 and some short lines following the separation of passenger ways to enter into confidential con- in Alberta in 2006 and 2007. services in 1979 that created Via Rail tracts with customers, eliminating Canada. This allowed management any minimum or maximum rates set CN’s momentum has ultimately been to focus exclusively on freight trans- by regulation, while instituting final maintained with the evolution of its portation and to prepare for privati- offer arbitration to protect shippers. strategic agenda: from an operational zation which would come later. This progressive mindset of deregu- focus to one based on Operational lation continued in 1993, when the and Service Excellence in day-to-day National Transportation Act Review n the eve of privatization, CN execution, and from a railway to a Commission recognized that the had a lot going for it: quality supply chain mindset in the way we assets, strong railroading withdrawal of government from di- O interact with customers and part- practices, a diverse business mix, the rect management of transportation ners. The shift is part of CN’s thrust capacity to grow, and a solid plan to was good policy, and in 1996, when to become more customer-centric. It cut costs and turn the railway around. the Canadian Transportation Act in- involves a strong dose of innovation, But to unleash CN’s full potential, troduced greater latitude for railways such as the implementation of first more change was required, and that to rationalize their infrastructure. mile/last mile initiatives that have change came with its initial public allowed the company to go beyond offering (IPO) in November 1995, a CN’s journey was enriched with a hub-to-hub speed and reliability and short 20 years ago. compelling vision of what the railway had to become. Soon after he address the need for more consistent Privatization enabled CN to demon- joined as CEO in 1992, former Clerk car order fulfillment. It also involves strate that good assets are often more of the Privy Council Paul Tellier saw substantial investments, starting valuable in the hands of the private privatization as a step towards mak- with an unwavering commitment to sector. The company focused on the ing CN the best railway in North safety. Totaling close to $19 billion creation of value and on optimizing America. Shortly after the 1995 IPO, or 20 per cent of revenues during the the use of the company’s resources to the railway began a string of strategic last 10 years alone, CN’s capital in- serve customers across a wide range acquisitions aimed at increasing our vestments support the pursuit of effi- of different markets. Employees be- penetration of the North American cient, safe and quality service, on the gan to think like owners as they be- market and our ability to offer seam- railroad and in our interaction with came owners of the stock. And share- less service to our customers. The first, other supply chain partners.

Policy 69 Totaling close to $19 billion or 20 per cent of revenues during the last 10 years alone, CN’s capital investments support the pursuit of efﬁcient, safe and quality service, on the railroad and in our interaction with other supply chain partners.

he shift to becoming a sup- Halifax harbour. CN photo ply chain enabler is a key to T CN’s continuing success. improve simultaneously, and that growth and prosperity over the While playing a central role across supply chains have to be nurtured. next 20 years, it needs a glob- multiple supply chains, the railway I have often said becoming the best ally competitive transportation is only one player amongst many, in class doesn’t mean the job is done. system; and this calls for an end-to-end per- Staying on top can often be a bigger 2. competition and market forces spective which CN has been actively challenge. To stay there and play our should be the prime agents in pro- pursuing. CN has taken the lead in role fully requires a commitment to viding viable and effective trans- developing innovative supply chain flawless execution and continued in- portation services; agreements with key players in inter- novation. But it also requires sound modal and other businesses, includ- government policy. 3. regulation and government inter- ing Canada’s major gateways. CN vention must only be used as a has promoted the use of service and ne of the many things I have last recourse if and only if markets operating metrics that can be shared learned from my two decades do not work; and with others, on a commercial basis, O of railroading is that a com- 4. sound regulation and policy can to drive action on the ground and mercial framework and a stable regu- only be based on well-document- continuous improvement in terms of latory environment are an essential ed facts and an end-to-end under- efficiency and reliability end-to-end. foundation for an effective, well- standing of the supply chain. functioning transportation market- Today, CN is a true backbone of the place. Sound regulation is a force CN will continue to work with gov- economy, fostering economic pros- for good in our society; it makes our ernment and other stakeholders to perity in the North American mar- communities stronger and safer. It encourage the existence of a sound kets it serves. CN’s network of 20,000 supports the growth of trade and the regulatory environment that encour- route-miles of track spanning Canada economy. Burdensome regulation and Mid-America uniquely links the ages investment and drives innova- threatens to increase costs, stifle in- Atlantic, the Pacific and the Gulf of tion. As CN embarks on its next 20 novation and discourage investments Mexico coasts. CN’s extensive network years, it is not resting on its laurels. that are critical to building the effi- and efficient connections to the conti- The railway will continue to inno- cient, safe and resilient supply chains nent’s other major railroads provide vate, improve safety, and drive better of the future. Yet this seems to be the customers access to all three NAFTA customer service, working tirelessly direction that was taken in 2013 and nations. CN trains and 25,000 people to build a new economy just as those 2014 with the introduction of Bills move more than $250 billion worth of visionary leaders did when that first C-52 and C-30, which have reversed goods annually, carrying over 300 mil- steam locomotive rumbled across the trend of deregulation of the prior lion tons of cargo. The railway serves Quebec 150 years ago. As CN marks 30 years. exporters, importers, retailers, farmers the 20-year milestone of its IPO, and as it prepares to celebrate its centena- and manufacturers alike. As policymakers review the Canada ry in 2019, the journey continues as Transportation Act, I respectfully sub- CN has achieved and maintained it builds for the future. this successful transformation with mit they should be guided by the fol- the conviction that excellent ser- lowing principles: Claude Mongeau is President and vice and operational efficiency can 1. for Canada to achieve economic CEO of CN.

November/December 2015

MY LIFE is to be active

MY MEDICINE is my hope

I was born with hemophilia and have received many blood transfusions. As a child, I was still able to play hockey and continued being active into my adult years. My life changed forever when I contracted Hepatitis C from a blood transfusion at the age of 32. Doctors kept me alive long enough to try a new medicine through My name is Gérard Genest a compassionate care program. After living with the virus for I’m from Montreal 25 years, I was cured after 24 weeks. I was able to return to my and I am cured of Hepatitis C family and to my life. Research saved my life.

www.canadapharma.org/hope PDF/X-1a:2003

En choisissant VIA Rail pour vos voyages d’affaires, vous aidez le gouvernement à réduire ses dépenses et permettez aux contribuables d’économiser. De plus, vous maximisez votre productivité. N’attendez plus, partez en train dès aujourd’hui!

MC Marque de commerce propriété de VIA Rail Canada inc.

Liaison Nombre de Distance Temps Temps Coût du voyage Coût du voyage Économies pour départs par jour productif non productif en voiture** en train (à partir le contribuable en train en voiture* de seulement) (voyage en train)***

Ottawa Toronto Jusqu’à 16 450 km 4 h 01 min 4 h 34 min 467 $ 44 $1 423 $

Ottawa Montréal Jusqu’à 12 198 km 1 h 47 min 2 h 27 min 227 $ 33 $1 194 $

Ottawa Québec 2 482 km 5 h 23 min 4 h 39 min 488 $ 49 $1 439 $

Toronto Montréal Jusqu’à 17 541 km 4 h 34 min 5 h 30 min 562 $ 44 $1 518 $

1 Les employés du gouvernement du Canada profitent d’un rabais de 10 % sur les meilleurs tarifs pour tous les trains et classes de VIA Rail Canada. Valable si vous voyagez par affaires ou pour le plaisir. Des conditions s’appliquent. Pour plus de renseignements, communiquez avec les services de TPSGC.

* 30 minutes ont été ajoutées à la durée totale du voyage en voiture afin d’inclure les retards dus au trafic et au mauvais temps. ** Le coût du voyage en voiture est calculé selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture (Taux de 0,55 $/km établi par le Conseil du trésor pour l’Ontario pour une voiture conduite par un employé du gouvernement X distance parcourue) + (taux horaire moyen d’un employé gouvernemental de 48 $/h selon un salaire de 100 000 $ par année, y compris les avantages sociaux X durée du voyage) = coût total en $ pour le contribuable. *** L’économie pour le contribuable associée aux voyages en train est calculée selon la formule suivante : Coût du voyage en voiture – coût du voyage en train = économies pour le contribuable.

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