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The emergency in and the 1 The path ahead – resignation or action?

PROBLEMS IMPACTS ALTERNATIVES

Goal 13 The increase in greenhou- The limit to carbon (climate action), It highlights se gas emissions resulting emissions or the carbon Mitigation measures for technologi- the urgent need to adopt Public Policy from global production cal innovation and risk management measures to combat climate and consumption decisions budget frames the window Mitigation in different sectors. change and its effects, and Instruments is already having a of opportunity that should the consequences of these noticeable effect on the determine the speed of climate changes may be irreversible change in such fundamen- if action is not taken tal areas as energy immediately production, transport and mobility, the way cities are built and the limits set on There are two main the transformation of obstacles to meeting Physical . the goals proposed by Any investment aimed at restoring the Paris Agreement the natural heritage and ecosystem and the SDGs: Achieving this transforma- Mixed services will bring benefits on both tion far transcends specific the adaptation and the mitigation Problems with public sectoral or technological fronts. policy instruments and problems with producti- Social policies, requiring a ve sectors worldwide economic shift towards a great environ- mental effort that must be the dominant purpose and For our , the nationally determined contributions goal of technology (NDCs) of the Paris The economic and social configurations and public Redirect investments towards problems in the Latin Agreement and the policy tools, from the adaptation through technological American and Caribbean Sustainable Development innovation and solutions based on Productive region increase the gap to implementation of Adaptation Goals (SDGs) are clear nature in the different productive achieve sustainability. adaptation and mitigation benchmarks for efforts to Sectors sectors. seize the opportunity to measures in the different progress likewise with the productive sectors. quality and sustainability of national and local development, while helping to mitigate the climate emergency 2 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?

Goal 13 (climate action), It highlights The 2030 agenda Article 2: the urgent need to adopt “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and measures to combat climate for the pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C …” change and its effects, and the consequences of these development of Article 3: changes may be irreversible “…nationally determined contributions (NDCs) …” if action is not taken the Paris immediately agreement

2ºC = 1.070 Gt de CO2 (would run out in about 2 decades) 1,5ºC = 370 Gt CO2 (would run out in less than 1 decade) Global Carbon Reduction of current emissions, and make them compatible with the targets: Reducing the current 7 to 2 °C = Reduction of Reducing the current 7 1,5 °C = Reduction of Budget to less than 5 tons per less than 3 tons per capita current 50 to about current 50 to about and neutrality should be 40 Gt of CO2 eq by capita and achieving 24 Gt of CO2 eq by neutrality by 2070. achieved by the middle of 2030. 2030. this century

For our region, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement and the Regional Sustainable Development The region contributes 8.3% of global emissions, that is, 4.2 Gt of CO2 eq Goals (SDGs) are clear carbon budget: benchmarks for efforts to If the carbon budget were distributed in accordance with the current global emissions share of LAC, the seize the opportunity to Latin America and region would have a budget of around 47 Gt of CO2 eq and 110 Gt of CO2 eq to meet the 1.5 °C and 2 progress likewise with the °C targets, respectively. quality and sustainability of the Caribbean national and local The budget compatible with the 1.5 °C objective would be used up in about 11 and that compatible development, while helping (ALC) with the 2 °C objective in just over 23 years. to mitigate the climate emergency

back 3 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?

PROBLEMS

Latin America and the Caribbean and the world: sectoral shares In Latin America and the Caribbean, emissions from of greenhouse gas emissions, 2016 all sectors continue to rise and, as in the rest of the (Percentages) Public Policy world, the greatest increase has been in the energy 80 70.4 sector. As a result, the energy component is beco- 70 Instruments ming increasingly important in the region’s emis- sions, and transport has been one of the 60 fastest-growing sectors within this. 50 45.3

40

30 22.9 19.3 20 11.6 8.6 7.2 5.8 There are two main 10 3.3 4.9 obstacles to meeting 0.3 0.3 the goals proposed by 0 EnergyAgriculture Industrial Land use change WasteOther the Paris Agreement and livestock processes and forestry

and the SDGs: World Latin America and the Caribbean Problems with public policy instruments and problems with producti- Latin America and the Caribbean: greenhouse gas emissions, ve sectors 1990, 2000 and 2016 A. Latin America and the Caribbean: greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990, 2000 and 2016

(gigatons of CO2 equivalent) 2.0 1.9 1.8

1.6 1.3 1.4 ProductiveProductive 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 SectorsSectors 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 Agriculture Energy Industrial Waste and livestock processes

back 4 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?

PROBLEMS

Latin America and the Caribbean: energy subsidies and general government health spending, 2015 (Percentages of GDP) Public Policy 25 Instruments 20 15

10

5

0 i ) ) s s y e a a a a a a a a p. ru ay ze co tt vi s ait in a bi a ud xi an d uras e of ador H Pe yana ados nt agu bago p. of Chil name Brazil t Ki r rb uador inidad ugu Beli a Rica n Re

There are two main Bolivi anam ragua rb ri Me ge d Ne Gu ahama atemal Tr st ca P Ec Jamaic Ur Ba ain Grenad enezuel Stat . Re tigua d To Dominica B Salv Colom Pa Su Ba Ar Hond an S Ni V Gu obstacles to meeting Co El an An (Bol the goals proposed by (Plu r. the Paris Agreement Dominica and the SDGs: General government health spending Energy subsidies Problems with public policy instruments and Latin America: structure of taxation related to the environment, 2016 problems with producti- (Percentages of GDP) ve sectors 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5 Emissions of CO2 by producers and consumers are cost-free: Only 4 LAC countries have a CO2 1.0 Productive tax and it is very low: Argentina, Colombia, Sectors and . 0.5 The consumption or production of fossil fuels is 0 ) ) r y a e n a ru co ic bia CD ie s) encouraged through subsidies or tax spending, and ies xi uras e of ador Rep. Pe agu a Chil Brazil r uado agu ay ugua a Rica OE Bolivi anama mer Me gentina untr the destruction of nature does not show up in the untr atemala st ca P Ec Ur Stat Salv Colom Par Ar Hond n A Ni r. Dominica Gu Co ti El 4 co economic accounts 7 co (1 (3 La (Plu Other Transport Energy

back 5 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?

Latin America: expected impact of climate change on biodiversity, 2050 IMPACTS Increased vulnerability to extreme atmospheric events Biodiversity threatened

Coral reefs and mangroves threatened Risk of desertification

Malaria The increase in greenhou- iNCREASES IN ATMOSPHERIC AND TEMPERATURES Areas currently se gas emissions resulting affected Possible extent by 2050

from global production Precipitation and consumption decisions CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS Increase is already having a Decrease Coasts threatened noticeable effect on the by level rise Cities threatened by sea climate REDUCTIONS IN THE VOLUMES OF ICE AND level rise

Reduced water availability

Negative effects on fisheries RISING SEA LEVELS Negative effects on agriculture Shrinking of glaciers Increased risk of fires Increased aridity and reduction CHANGES IN EXTREME WEATHER EVENT PATTERNS of water resources Ecosystem changes Negative impacts Physical on mountain

Anomalies in the ’s average temperature during the past 65 million years and potential geohistorical analogues for future up to 2300 CE Social relative to the period 1961–1990 (Degrees centigrade) ne en e e en e ne en e eo ce ce igoc iocen Eo M Plioc Pleistoc Pala Ol 15 Ice Sheets

Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets 2200 The economic and social 10

problems in the Latin e Last interglacial 2100 Mid-Pliocene period Mid-Holocene American and Caribbean 5 2005 Early

region increase the gap to emperatur Eocene t in achieve sustainability. 0 Historical

Change Pre-industrial -5

60 40 20 531300 100201019502150 Millions of years before present Thousands of years before presentYear of common era (CE) Zachos et al. (2008) EPICA Dome C Lisiecki & Ramo (2004) NGRIP Marcott et al. (2013) HadCRUT4

back 6 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?

IMPACTS

The increase in The Caribbean: damage caused by disasters, 1990–2017 Impact of climate change on world gross domestic product (GDP), by temperature (Billions of 2017 dollars) greenhouse gas emissions (Percentages of global GDP) 90 resulting from global 1 production and 80 0.4 0 consumption decisions is 70 already having a -1 -0.6 60 -1.5 noticeable effect on the -2 climate 50 -3 40

-4 30 -4.4 20 -5

10 -6 -6.4 0 -7 < 1 °C Between 1 °C Between 2 °C Between 3 °C > 4 °C Physical 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 and 2 °C and 3 °C and 4 °C Temperature rise

Peru: percentage changes in income per crop Social (Percentages) Structural gaps in infrastructure A. Temperature rise of 1 °C Social and distributive inequality Cassava Grape

Banana The economic and social Heightened patterns of extreme weather events problems in the Latin Native potato American and Caribbean Starchy maize region increase the gap to Disaster risk and its socio-economic consequences Hard yellow maize achieve sustainability. Coffee

Rice

Alfalfa

White potato

-50-40 -30-20 -10010 20

back 7 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action? ALTERNATIVES

The limit to carbon MITIGATION BENEFITS emissions or the carbon budget frames the window Mitigation measures for technological innovation and risk management in different sectors of opportunity that should Mitigation determine the speed of change in such fundamen- tal areas as energy production, transport and mobility, the way cities are Technological advance Quality of life Economic dynamism Greater equality: Better public built and the limits set on transport or nature-based the transformation of solutions in poor communities nature.

Achieving this transforma- tion far transcends specific Mixed sectoral or technological Latin America and the Caribbean (12 countries): average normalized cost CO2 emissions of conventional and electric vehicles over a distance of solar and wind energy, 2018 of 220,000 km, 2015 policies, requiring a (Dollars per kWh) (Grams per kilometre) worldwide economic shift 0.20 300 0.18 250 towards a great environ- 0.16 mental effort that must be 0.14 200 the dominant purpose and 0.12 0.10 150 goal of technology 0.08 configurations and public 0.06 100 0.04

policy tools, from the 0.02 50 0 r e implementation of a ru ay co xi

uras 0 Rep. Adaptation Pe Chil Brazil uado

ugu Petrol Diesel Petrol hybrid Green energyGrey energy Green energy Grey energy a Rica anama Me adaptation and mitigation gentin atemala

st and and P Ec Ur Ar Hond green energy green energy Dominican Gu Co measures in the different Plug-in hybrid Battery-powered electric Solar energy Wind energy High fossil fuel average Low fossil fuel average CO tank to wheel (TTW) CO well to wheel (WTW) CO WTW plus production productive sectors. 2 2 2

back 8 The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action? ALTERNATIVES

AdapAdapttaattionion BeneficiosBeneficioss sustustantivosantivos Benefits The limit to carbon emissions or the carbon dilemmas de la Adaptación and costs of budget frames the window adaptation investments of opportunity that should Mitigation a. People/territories Well-being of current and Strengthening early warning determine the speed of future populations systems change in such fundamen- b. Sectors tal areas as energy The security of assets and Making new infraestructure production, transport and For contribution to the economy the maintenance of ecosys- resilent mobility, the way cities are tem goods For contribution to the foreign Improving dryland agriculture built and the limits set on exchange Functions and services now crop production the transformation of and in the future nature. For contribution to employment Protecting mangroves Economic dynamism Achieving this transforma- Due to its effect on economic Making water resources manage- dynamism ment more resilent tion far transcends specific Mixed sectoral or technological policies, requiring a worldwide economic shift (Trillions of dollars) (Millions of tons of CO2eq) towards a great environ- Benefit-cost ratio Net benefits 1:13:1 5:17:1 9:111:113:115:117:1 mental effort that must be Soya-livestock-forest integration -0.72 Strengthening early 0.1 the dominant purpose and warning systems Soya-livestock integration -9.2 goal of technology Making new 4.0 infraestructure resilent configurations and public Maize-livestock integration -0.73

policy tools, from the Improving dryland agriculture 0.7 crop production implementation of Adaptation Degraded pasture 96.7 adaptation and mitigation Protecting mangroves 1.0 Reclaimed pasture -123 measures in the different Making water resources 1.4 productive sectors. management more resilent Agricultural crops 16.4

Total net benefits 7.1 -150 -100 -50050 100150

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