Cairngorms National Park Local Development Plan 2020 Proposed Plan

Evidence Paper: Rural Development – Part 1 Housing CONTENTS

1. POLICY CONTEXT ...... 3

1.1 National Planning Framework 3 ...... 3 1.2 Scottish Planning Policy ...... 3 1.3 Planning Circular 6/2013: Development Planning ...... 5 1.4 Planning Advice Note 2/2010: Affordable Housing and Housing Land Audits ...... 5 1.5 The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 ...... 5 2 TRENDS AND OTHER DRIVERS OF CHANGE ...... 6

2.1 Low-cost Initiative for First Time Buyers (LIFT) ...... 6 2.2 Help to Buy ...... 6 2.3 Right to Buy ...... 6 2.4 Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015 ...... 7 2.5 Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016 ...... 7 3 CURRENT POLICY APPROACH ...... 9

3. CHALLENGES AND ISSUES WITHIN THE CAIRNGORMS NATIONAL PARK ...... 11

3.1 Housing Need ...... 11 3.2 Population and Households ...... 11 Population ...... 11 Households ...... 25 3.3 Housing Market Characteristics...... 28 House Prices and Affordability ...... 28 Time on Market ...... 42 Aberdeenshire Settlements ...... 42 Highland Settlements ...... 43 Moray Settlements ...... 45 Perth and Kinross Settlements ...... 46 Origin of Buyers ...... 46 New Build ...... 47 Ineffective Stock ...... 49 Occupation and Tenure ...... 54 Property Type and Size ...... 56

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3.4 Identifying Housing Need ...... 58 Housing Need & Demand ...... 58 Specialist Provision ...... 84 Conclusions: Housing Need ...... 88 3.5 Rationale for Housing Land Requirement ...... 89 3.6 Affordable Housing Provision ...... 90 Aviemore ...... 92 Ballater and Braemar ...... 92 Blair Atholl ...... 96 Conclusions ...... 100 3.7 New Sites ...... 101 Settlements ...... 103 Policy 1.11: Long Term Designations ...... 104 3.8 Land Supply and Delivery ...... 110 4. SUMMARY – KEY ISSUES / IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 113

5. REFERENCES AND FURTHER INFORMATION ...... 114

APPENDIX 1: Housing Need and Demand Assessment Diagram ...... 116

APPENDIX 2: LDP Potential Population Change ...... 117

Introduction ...... 117 Methodology and Assumptions ...... 118 Population ...... 118 Geography ...... 119 Housing Occupation ...... 119 Housing Delivery ...... 119 Results ...... 120 APPENDIX 3: Highland Waiting list 2018 ...... 125

APPENDIX 4: Boundaries and statistical areas used in the analysis of the Cairngorms National Park ...... 129

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1. POLICY CONTEXT

1.1 National Planning Framework 3 The National Planning Framework (NPF3) (2014) aims to facilitate new housing development, both in areas metropolitan areas where there is continuing pressure for growth, and through innovative approaches to rural housing provision.

The NPF3 offers a strategy for Scotland’s National Parks, which states in relation to housing that positive planning and innovation should continue to deliver affordable rural housing and encourage high quality placemaking.

The NPF3 highlights the important contribution housing makes to Scotland’s economy and that planning can help to address the challenges facing the housing sector by providing a positive and flexible approach to development. In particular, provision for new homes should be made in areas where economic investment is planned or there is a need for regeneration or to support population retention in rural and island areas.

1.2 Scottish Planning Policy Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) (2014) is a statement of Scottish Government policy on how nationally important land use planning matters should be addressed across the country.

In relation to housing, SPP states that the planning system should:

 Identify a generous supply of land for each housing market area within the plan area to support the achievement of the housing land requirement across all tenures, maintaining at least a 5-year supply of effective housing land at all times;

 Enable provision of a range of attractive, well-designed, energy efficient, good quality housing, contributing to the creation of successful and sustainable places; and

 Have a sharp focus on the delivery of allocated sites embedded in action programmes, informed by strong engagement with stakeholders.

The SPP recognises the special status of National Park’s as planning authorities and requires that Local Development Plans (LDPs) be consistent with National Park Plans. It states that the authority preparing the LDP for a National Park, or which affects a National Park, is required to pay special attention to the desirability of consistency with the National Park Plan, having regard to the contents (para 86). The NPPP therefore plays a leading role in setting the strategic context for the delivery of housing across the National Park and the contents of the LDP.

Development Plans

According to SPPP, Development Plans should be informed by a robust housing need and demand assessment (HNDA), prepared in line with the Scottish Government’s HNDA Guidance. This assessment provides part of the evidence base to inform both local housing 3 | P a g e

strategies and development plans (including the main issues report). It should produce results both at the level of the functional housing market area and at local authority level, and cover all tenures (see Appendix 1 for details of process).

Plans should address the supply of land for all housing. They should set out the housing supply target (separated into affordable and market sector) and the housing land requirement for each functional housing market area up to year 10 from the expected year of adoption, based on evidence from the HNDA. The housing supply target is a policy view of the number of homes the authority has agreed will be delivered in each housing market area over the periods of the development plan and local housing strategy, taking into account wider economic, social and environmental factors, issues of capacity, resource and deliverability, and other important requirements such as the aims of National Parks. The target should be reasonable, should properly reflect the HNDA estimate of housing demand in the market sector, and should be supported by compelling evidence.

Within the overall housing supply target, plans should indicate the number of new homes to be built over the plan period. This figure should be increased by a margin of 10 to 20% to establish the housing land requirement, in order to ensure that a generous supply of land for housing is provided. The exact extent of the margin will depend on local circumstances, but a robust explanation for it should be provided in the plan.

The LDP should allocate a range of sites which are effective or expected to become effective in the plan period to meet the housing land requirement in full. It should provide a minimum of 5 years effective land supply at all times. Beyond year 10 and up to year 20, the Local Development Plan should provide an indication of the possible scale and location of the housing land requirement.

The housing land requirement can be met from a number of sources, most notably sites from the established supply which are effective or expected to become effective in the plan period, sites with planning permission, proposed new land allocations, and in some cases a proportion of windfall development. Any assessment of the expected contribution to the housing land requirement from windfall sites must be realistic and based on clear evidence of past completions and sound assumptions about likely future trends.

Since the National Park is not a housing authority it has no duty to produce an HNDA, with this responsibility falling to its constituent housing authorities, which in the case of the CNP are Highland, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Perth and Kinross and Angus. The National Park’s Local Development Plans should draw on the evidence provided by the HNDAs of the constituent housing authorities. It should aim to meet the housing land requirement in full in their area. However, they are not required to do so, and they should liaise closely with neighbouring planning authorities to ensure that any remaining part of the housing land requirement for the National Parks is met in immediately adjoining housing market areas, and that a 5-year supply of effective land is maintained.

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1.3 Planning Circular 6/2013: Development Planning This Circular (2013) describes the development planning system in Scotland, and explains legislative provisions in both the primary legislation and the subsequent Regulations.

1.4 Planning Advice Note 2/2010: Affordable Housing and Housing Land Audits It is not the duty of the National Park Authority to produce Housing Land Audits, therefore only section 1 of the Planning Advice Note (PAN) (2010), which provides advice and information on how the planning system can increase the supply of affordable housing, holds any requirements that need to be considered by the NPPP.

According to the PAN, a range of housing types, at different prices, tenures and locations are needed to cater for the increasing number and variety of households, maintain the viability of communities, and support the operation of local labour markets and the wider economy. In summary, it states that the Scottish Government’s ambitions are:

 to increase housing supply across all tenures over the long term;  to increase the choice of housing available to those on low incomes;  to create housing developments of high environmental and design standards that contribute to the creation of sustainable, mixed communities; and  to ensure that social housing provides better value for public expenditure

1.5 The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 The Act requires local authorities to prepare a local housing strategy supported by an assessment of housing need and demand. While these obligations are not placed upon the National Park Authority, they do influence how housing is delivered within the National Park.

Housing Strategies provide information about the agreed strategic direction taken by a Local Authority on how to tackle housing issues across the privately owned, social and privately rented sectors within their area. It also informs investment in housing and related services.

Housing Need and Demand Assessments (HNDA) are technical documents that aim to give long run estimates of housing need, and provide an evidence base for both Local Housing Strategies and Local Development Plans. They are largely analytical and use quantitative information wherever it is available, supplemented by qualitative information when it is not, or to give context. In the Cairngorms National Park therefore, the HNDAs of five Local Authorities must be drawn on to inform the National Park Authority’s plans and strategies.

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2 TRENDS AND OTHER DRIVERS OF CHANGE

2.1 Low-cost Initiative for First Time Buyers (LIFT) Since 2007, the Scottish Government’s Low-cost Initiative for First Time Buyers (LIFT) shared equity schemes have helped over 12,000 people to buy a home.

There are two LIFT schemes:

1. The Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE) scheme, which in 2018/19 aimed to provide £70 million to help people buy a home – within certain price thresholds – for sale on the open market; and 2. The New Supply Shared Equity scheme (NSSE), which helps people buy a new- build home from a council or housing association. Although buyers will own the property outright, our interests will be covered by a standard security on their property 2.2 Help to Buy The Help to Buy (Scotland) scheme helps buyers to buy a new home from a participating home builder without having to fund the entire purchase price. The scheme has been extended to March 2021 with an additional £100 million of funding be provided over 2019- 20 and 2020-21. This funding, in combination with our original Help to Buy scheme, which closed for applications on 31st March 2016, aims to help around 18,000 households to buy new-build homes across Scotland.

2.3 Right to Buy The ‘Right to Buy’ was introduced in October 1980 and gave tenants of council housing the right to buy their homes at a discount, depending on how long they had been living in the property.

The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 introduced the Scottish secure tenancy from 30 September 2002. This provided a single, common tenancy for nearly all tenants of local authorities and housing associations in Scotland and made important changes to the right to buy. The qualifying period increased from two to five years and the maximum discount was reduced to 35% or £15,000, whichever was lower. This is called the 'modernised right to buy'. Housing association tenants who previously did not have the right to buy now had a modernised right to buy but this was suspended for 10 years until 2012. The Act also gave housing associations the right to apply to extend this suspension beyond 2012.

On 1 March 2011, the Housing (Scotland) Act 2010 came into force and introduced further changes to the right to buy rules. The main changes were that the right to buy was removed from:

 new-build and new-supply social housing;  people who take up a tenancy with a social landlord for the first time; and  with some exceptions - tenants who return to the social rented sector after a break.

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Right to Buy will end for all council and housing association tenants in Scotland on 1 August 2016. Tenants with a right to buy that they are allowed to use will have until 31 July 2016 to do so.

2.4 Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015 The stated aims of the Act are to:

 empower community bodies through the ownership of land and buildings and strengthening their voices in the decisions that matter to them; and  support an increase in the pace and scale of public service reform by cementing the focus on achieving outcomes and improving the process of community planning.

Some of the key provisions of the Act have an implication for the delivery of housing:  Strengthening Community Planning: greater focus on tackling inequality, improved resourcing of community engagement; and a requirement to improve public sector collaboration, involving a broader range of agencies (including National Park Authorities);  Participation Requests: a provision which allows community groups to participate in a process designed to improve the delivery of a strategic outcome. There is a presumption in favour of the request being granted and this provision applies to a significant number of public agencies (including National Park Authorities);

 Asset Transfer Requests: a provision allowing appropriately constituted community groups to request the transfer of a public asset to their use, management or ownership. This provision applies to a significant number of public agencies (including National Park Authorities); and

 Right-to-Buy: the community right to buy is extended to all communities and a new provision allows communities to purchase land where they can persuade Scottish Ministers that it is abandoned or neglected, or has a negative impact on their environmental quality of life.

2.5 Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016 The additional provisions for the community right-to-buy set out within the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015 are further supported by the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016, which was passed by the Parliament on 16 March 2016 and received Royal Assent on 22 March 2016. The Act seeks to increase the contribution of Scotland’s land to sustainable economic growth; empower greater numbers of people; and change patterns of ownership in Scotland to ensure greater sustainable development. The aims of the Act are to:-

 ensure the development of an effective system of land governance and on-going commitment to land reform in Scotland;

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 address barriers to furthering sustainable development in relation to land and improve the transparency and accountability of land ownership; and  demonstrate commitment to effectively manage land and rights in land for the common good, through modernising and improving specific aspects of land ownership and rights over land.

Within the Act there is one main provision that may directly impact on housing. This proposed provision will allow communities to purchase land where they can persuade Scottish Ministers that a transfer will provide significant benefit to the community; prevent significant harm; further sustainable development; and is the only practicable way of achieving the stated benefit.

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3 CURRENT POLICY APPROACH

Policy 1: New Housing Development aims to create opportunities for the right type of housing, in the right place, that makes a positive contribution to local communities. It aims that developers will have confidence to invest and in turn communities will have the support they need to become and remain thriving places where people enjoy a sense of wellbeing.

The Policy consists of ten sub-policies that cover different aspects of housing delivery:

 Policy 1.1 Housing in settlements  Policy 1.2 Housing development in existing rural groups  Policy 1.3 Other housing in the countryside  Policy 1.4 Contribution towards affordable housing provision  Policy 1.5 Affordable housing developments  Policy 1.6 Affordable housing provided using cross subsidy from other housing  Policy 1.7 Alterations to existing houses  Policy 1.8 Conversions  Policy 1.9 Replacement houses  Policy 1.10 Housing for gypsies and travellers and travelling showpeople

Policy 1 was used a total of 127 times, twice (1.6%) by the CNPA and 125 (98.4%) times by the Las in the first year of the current LDP’s adoption. It resulted in a total of 122 (96.1%) applications being approved and 5 (3.9%) refused (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

1 4 1

CNPA Approved LA Approved CNPA Refused LA Refused

121

Figure 1 Use of Policy 1 by Planning Authority type.

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8 Number 6

Applications refused Applications approved

Figure 2 Use of Policy 1 by month.

Approved application Refused application North

Scale: 1:700,000

Figure 3 Location of planning applications where ‘Policy 1 New Housing Development’ was used March 2015 - 2016. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. 10 | P a g e

3. CHALLENGES AND ISSUES WITHIN THE CAIRNGORMS NATIONAL PARK

3.1 Housing Need

There is no single official measure of housing need, however the process within Scotland’s National Parks is complicated by the fact that a great deal of relevant information is not available at a National Park scale. The responsibility for studies such as Housing Need and Demand Assessments (HNDA) therefore falls outside the remit and ability of National Park Authorities, lying in the hands of the Local Authorities that cover their areas. Studies such as HNDAs are not always directly useful to National Park Authorities, since the Housing Market Areas they identify are not necessarily contiguous with National Park boundaries. However, certain important types of data, such as population and household projections and data on market affordability, may be collected allowing key issues to be identified.

3.2 Population and Households

Population Population and household estimates and projections are frequently used to inform housing policy and may be used to inform the housing land requirements for Local Development Plans (LDPs) and other strategic documents. Population and household statistics within the Cairngorms National Park are calculated using an aggregate of data zones that roughly correspond with its boundary. For full details on how these data zones are collected, see Appendix 4.

In 20171 the estimated population of the National Park was 18,605, with 9,214 males and 9,391 females (Statistics.gov.scot, 2018).

The National Park has a distinctly different population profile to the national (Figure 4), with a higher proportion of people falling within the 55 to 74 age cohorts. When compared to other rural parts of Scotland, the Cairngorms National Park also has a relatively high proportion of residents within the 10 to 29 age cohorts (National Records Scotland, 2018). This is thought to be due to the relatively high number of opportunities for employment in the outdoor and tourism sectors. There is also a spike in the 10 to 15 year cohort, which is replicated across Scotland as a whole.

1 2017 Mid-year estimates represent the most recent set of population statistics at a data zone level at time of writing. 11 | P a g e

90 And Over 90 And Over 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 Age cohort 35-39 Age cohort 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 5% 0% 5% 5% 0% 5% Propoprtion of population Propoprtion of population

Female Male Female Male

Figure 4 Estimated population profile (%) by age and sex in Figure 5 Estimated population profile (%) by age and sex in the Cairngorms National Park in 2017. Scotland in 2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot Although mid-year estimates suggest a slowdown in the rate of growth between 2011 and 2017, during the 21st century2, the National Park has experienced a significant net increase in its resident population, rising by approximately 2,272 persons (a growth of 13.9%) (Figure 6). This growth is well above the overall Scottish rate, which saw a net increase of around 7.1% over the same period.

This growth has not been evenly distributed throughout the National Park (Figure 7 and Figure 8). Indeed, the overall population in data zones within Aberdeenshire and Perth and Kinross has remained relatively stable.

2 Figures between 2001 and 2009 include people living in the area of Perth and Kinross which did not become part of the National Park until 2010. 12 | P a g e

19000

18500

18000

17500

17000

16500

16000

15500

15000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 6 Mid-year estimates of total population for the Cairngorms National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Aberdeenshire Highland Moray Perth and Kinross

Figure 7 Mid-year estimates of total population for the Cairngorms National Park distributed by Local Authority Area (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The greatest increase occurred within Aviemore, which is estimated to have grown by around 1,200 people. Proportionally this represents a growth of around 150%. Most of Badenoch and Strathspey also experienced growth, gaining an estimated 967 people. Taken together, this addition of around 2,200 persons resulted in the Highland area of the National Park growing by 19%.

Although net population change within the National Park has been positive, certain areas experienced a reduction in the population. For example, the population of the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park fell by around 60 people over this period. It is unclear if this represents a genuine trend or is a result of methodical or sampling changes to the mid-year estimate methodology.

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Over 20% 10 to 20% North 0 to 10% 0 to -10% - 10 to -20%

Under -20%

Scale: 1:700,000

Figure 8 Population change within the Cairngorms National Park between 2001 and 2017 (based on mid-year estimates). (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot)3. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. The components of this population change can be calculated for the years 2002-20134 (Table 1 and Figure 9). This shows that deaths have exceeded births every year of this period and that the National Parks’ population growth is driven by migration. Over this period, the population grew by around 11.8%, but would have fallen by around 3.4% had no migration taken place. The nature of change has not of course been even throughout the National Park, with areas such as Aviemore seeing births exceeding deaths and a far higher level of migration, while in other areas, such as Aberdeenshire and Perth and Kinross the net change has been insignificant.

3 Estimates of population change between 2001 and 2017 are complicated by the fact that boundary changes have occurred during the transition from 2001 and 2011 data zones, including the splitting of a single data zone in Aviemore to form two data zones. While efforts have been made to match these geographies as much as possible, the degree to which actual population change has occurred is likely to be exaggerated in certain instances. 4 Data on deaths is not currently available for small area geographies beyond 2013. 14 | P a g e

Table 1 Components of population change 2002-2013 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Change Reference Area 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2002- 2013 Births 21 26 25 26 25 21 21 30 24 18 24 17 278

Deaths 36 57 56 46 56 42 47 40 41 45 39 49 554 Natural Change -15 -31 -31 -20 -31 -21 -26 -10 -17 -27 -15 -32 -276 Aberdeenshire Net Migration -2 92 -1 26 137 -26 54 -47 1 0 14 38 303

Population Change -17 61 -32 6 106 -47 28 -57 -16 -27 -1 6 27 Total Population 3113 3174 3142 3148 3254 3207 3235 3178 3162 3135 3134 3140

Births 89 89 94 112 103 121 142 114 112 120 116 122 1334

Deaths 149 138 139 138 128 129 158 131 132 139 120 145 1646 Natural Change -60 -49 -45 -26 -25 -8 -16 -17 -20 -19 -4 -23 -312 Highland Net Migration 211 232 287 295 220 269 185 74 294 151 19 -13 2073

Population Change 151 183 242 269 195 261 169 57 274 132 15 -36 1761 Total Population 11800 11983 12225 12494 12689 12950 13119 13176 13450 13582 13597 13561

Births 9 4 7 1 9 3 5 4 2 9 2 5 60

Deaths 5 4 11 2 9 5 7 5 8 5 5 10 76 Natural Change 4 0 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -6 4 -3 -5 -16 Moray Net Migration 2 -6 43 36 44 38 -8 -7 33 18 -7 -3 177

Population Change 6 -6 39 35 44 36 -10 -8 27 22 -10 -8 161 Total Population 635 629 668 703 747 783 773 765 792 814 804 796

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Change Reference Area 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2002- 2013 Births 13 17 16 13 9 12 10 5 16 7 10 7 135

Deaths 6 4 9 9 10 9 14 6 7 3 8 8 93

Perth and Natural Change 7 13 7 4 -1 3 -4 -1 9 4 2 -1 42 Kinross Net Migration -9 27 -34 -21 -18 -8 6 46 -11 -14 -6 -2 -42

Population Change -2 40 -27 -17 -19 -5 2 45 -2 -10 -4 -3 0 Total Population 923 963 936 919 900 895 897 942 940 930 926 923 Births 132 136 142 152 146 157 178 153 154 154 152 151 1807

Deaths 196 203 215 195 203 185 226 182 188 192 172 212 2369

Cairngorms Natural Change -64 -67 -73 -43 -57 -28 -48 -29 -34 -38 -20 -61 -562 National Park Net Migration 202 345 295 336 383 273 237 66 317 155 20 20 2511

Population Change 138 278 222 293 326 245 189 37 283 117 0 -41 1949 Total Population 16471 16749 16971 17264 17590 17835 18024 18061 18344 18461 18461 18420

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400

300

200

100 Persons

-100

-200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Change Net Migration Population Change

Figure 9 Components of population change 2002-2013 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Despite migration exceeding natural change, which has bought younger people into the National Park, particularly in Aviemore area (Figure 12, Figure 13 and Table 3), the population has aged over the 2001-2017 period (Figure 10 and Figure 11). The number of children within the National Park has fallen by around 4% while the pensionable age population has grown by around 39% (Table 2).

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90 And Over 90 And Over 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 Age cohort 35-39 Age cohort 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 Persons Persons Female Male Female Male

Figure 10 Estimated population profile by age and sex in the Figure 11 Estimated population profile by age and sex in the Cairngorms National Park in 2001. Cairngorms National Park in 2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot

Table 2 Components of population change in the Cairngorms National Park in 2001- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 2001 2017 Change Cohort No. % No. % No. % Children (under 2,939 18.0% 2,831 15.2% -108 -3.7% 16) Working Age 10,220 62.6% 11,355 61.0% 1,135 11.1% (16 - 64) Pensionable Age 3,174 19.4% 4,419 23.8% 1,245 39.2% (65 and over) Total Population 16,333 N/A 18,605 N/A 2,272 13.9%

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90 And Over 90 And Over 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 Age cohort 35-39 Age cohort 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 200 100 0 100 200 200 100 0 100 200 Persons Persons Female Male Female Male

Figure 12 Estimated population profile by age and sex in Figure 13 Estimated population profile by age and sex in Aviemore in 2001. Aviemore in 2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot

Table 3 Components of population change in Aviemore in 2001- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 2001 2017 Change Cohort No. % No. % No. % Children (under 497 19.5% 622 16.5% 125 25.2% 16) Working Age 1,766 69.2% 2,512 66.5% 746 42.2% (16 - 64) Pensionable Age 290 11.4% 641 17.0% 351 121.0% (65 and over) Total Population 2,553 N/A 3,775 N/A 1,222 47.9%

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Population projections for the National Park are produced by National Records of Scotland (NRS), with the most recent being 2016 based projections, published in March 2018 (Figure 14). NRS’s (2018) principal projection is that between 2016 and 2041, the population of Cairngorms National Park will drop from 19,006 to 18,332 (a decrease of around 4%)5.

This projection is in contrast to the level of growth experienced previously and indeed NRS’ 2012 based principle projection, which projected a growth in the population of around 1%. Table 4 shows the principle projected percentage population change for the National Park and compares the projected rates of natural change and migration across areas between 2016 and 2041.

The population of the National Park is projected to decrease despite positive projected net migration to the area over the projection period. This is because the number of deaths is projected to exceed the number of births. This is largely due to the age structure of the population in these areas.

Table 4 Components of projected population change for the Cairngorms National Park, Principle projection 2016 to 20416 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Population mid-2016 19,006 Natural change Births 3,122 Deaths 5,036 Total -1,914 Net migration Overseas 487 Rest of UK 3,014 Within Scotland -1,996 Total 1,505 Other changes -265 Population mid-2041 18,332 Population change -674 Population change (%) -3.5%

5 The reason that NRS’ population estimate for 2016 differs from the 2017 mid-year estimate quoted on page 8 is due differences in the way small population areas are aggregated; see Appendix 2 for further details. 6 Projected natural change and net migration are not the only components of change. Other changes that are not included in this table include changes in armed forces and prisoner populations and changes due to constraining to the National Population Projections for Scotland. 20 | P a g e

19,500

19,000

18,500 High Migration Principle Persons 18,000 Low Migration

17,500

17,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Figure 14 Projected total population of the Cairngorms National Parks, High, Principal, Low and Zero migration scenarios 2016-2041 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 19,400

19,200

19,000

18,800 High Migration Principle

Persons 18,600 Low Migration 18,400

18,200

18,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Figure 15 Projected total population of the Cairngorms National Parks, High, Principal and Low migration scenarios for the current and next plan period, 2016-2029 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Table 5 Projected total population of the Cairngorms National Parks, High, Principal and Low migration scenarios for the current and next plan period and beyond (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Population Population Change Population Change 2041 (end Change Projection Population 2020 2016- 2029 (end 2016- of 2016 - Scenario 2016 (start of 2020 of LDP 2029 projection 2041 LDP) period) High Migration 19,006 19,041 0.18% 19,231 1.18% 19,098 0.48%

Principle 19,006 18,959 -0.25% 18,851 -0.82% 18,332 -3.55% Low Migration 19,006 18,852 -0.81% 18,469 -2.83% 17,543 -7.70%

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NRS (2018) also give an indication of how the age structure of the population might change (Figure 16 and Figure 17). According to the principal migration scenario, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 20% over the projection period from 2,933 in 2016 to 2,362 in 2041. The number of people of working age is projected to decrease from 11,612 in 2016 to 10,710 in 2041, a decrease of 8%. The population of pensionable age is projected to rise by 18% from 4,461 in 2016 to 5,260 in 2041. However, the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to from 1,794 in 2016 to 3,242 in 2041, an increase of 81%. By 2041 the population is projected to be more heavily distributed at older ages.7.

90 & over 90 & over 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 40 40

Age 35 Age 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 300 100 100 300 300 100 100 300 Persons Persons

Female Male Female Male

Figure 16 Estimated population profile by age and sex in Figure 17 Projected population profile by age and sex in the Cairngorms National Park in 2016. the Cairngorms National Park in 2041, Principle migration scenario. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot

It is important to note that population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.

7 Estimates based on State Pension Age. As set out in the 2014 Pensions Act, between 2014 and 2018, the state pension age will rise from 62 to 65 for women. Then between 2019 and 2020, it will rise from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. A further rise in state pension age to 67 will take place between 2026 and 2028. Between 2044 and 2046, state pension age will increase from 67 to 68. The UK Government plan to review state pension age every five years in line with life expectancy and other factors. 22 | P a g e

The effect of the assumptions about future migration, fertility and mortality is often limited by the inertia in population change, the future population of an area is strongly influenced by the initial base population. As the process of change is cumulative, the reliability of projections decreases over time. Change affects some populations more rapidly and more seriously than others. Thus, projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations, because the former are usually affected more by migration. Projections of the number of adults (particularly elderly people) are usually more reliable than those for children because of difficulties in projecting levels of fertility and parental migration. The size of the migration flows, and the uncertainty of future trends, mean that for many areas the migration assumptions are more critical than the fertility and mortality assumptions. Hence the migration assumptions can have a large effect on small populations in the long-term (e.g. the Shetland Islands where there is a small population) and also for some other areas with larger populations (e.g. East Dunbartonshire).

Population projections may indicate that existing trends and policies are likely to lead to outcomes which are judged undesirable. If new policies are then introduced, they may result in the original projections not being realised. However, this means the projections will have fulfilled one of their prime functions, to show the consequences of present demographic trends with sufficient notice for any necessary action to be taken.

On the basis of the need identified in Section 3.4 Identifying Housing Need and the assumptions outlined in Section 3.7 New Sites, the CNPA has calculated the possible change in population that the new and existing housing stock within the National Park’s settlements would be able to accommodate. It is not argued that the Plan itself would generate this population change, simply that it is able to facilitate it. Therefore, assuming these rates of development and occupation, it is estimated that the National Park’s settlements could accommodate a population increase of around 7% over the plan period. This is higher that NRS Principle projection for the same period, which projects a change of -0.57%.

Alternative scenarios, one of which considers development rates based on the last 10 years and another which considers a scenario in which no development takes place over the plan period, have also been produced. It should be noted that these latter two scenarios would result in the plan failing to meet its Housing Supply Targets (see Table 46).

A summary of these calculations can be found in Table 6 while full tables and details of the methodology can be found in APPENDIX 2: LDP Potential Population Change.

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Table 6 Potential change in dwellings and population for settlements identified in the LDP’s Settlement Strategy over plan period. Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Scenario population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 HLA delivery rates scenario (see Table 8,015 16,592 8,604 17,294 +702 +4% 9,050 17,829 +1,237 +7% 56) 10-year average annual completion rate scenario (see 7,948 16,575 8,278 16,757 +182 +1% 8,607 17,073 +498 +3% Table 57) Zero housing delivery scenario 7875 16,302 7,875 15,830 -473 -3% 7,875 15,515 -788% -5% (see Table 58)

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Households Since 2008, the number of dwellings in the National Park grew from 9,722 to 10,196 (an increase of around 5%), with occupation levels varying from a nadir of 82.95% in 2012 to a maximum of 83.46% in 2008 (Figure 18). Occupation levels and ineffective stock are discussed in more detail later in this report (see Figure 46). 12000

10000

8000

6000

4000 Number of dwellings 2000

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 18 Changes in household occupation in the Cairngorms National Park 2008-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Over this period the number of households claiming Single Adult Discount also increased from 2,866 to 2,968 (an increase of around 4%), with levels varying from a nadir of 28.15% in 2015 to a maximum of 29.48 in 2008 (Figure 19). This discount is signifies whether a property is occupied by a single adult household and that household has declared it as such. These levels are significantly lower than the Scottish, which have been around 38% for the same period.

3500

3000

2500

2000 Number of dwellings 1500

1000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 19 Households claiming Single Adult Discount in the Cairngorms National Park 2008-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 25 | P a g e

This rate of change has however varied significantly between the different Local Authority areas of the National Park, with the areas that have seen the least growth in households seeing the most significant increases in single occupancy households. For example, over the period of 2008 to 2017 the Perth and Kinross area saw a net increase of 20.6%.

33.00%

31.00%

29.00%

27.00%

25.00%

23.00%

21.00% Proportion of Households 19.00%

17.00%

15.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Aberdeenshire Highland Moray Perth & Kinross CNP Total

Figure 20 Change in the proportion of households claiming Single Adult Discount in the Cairngorms National Park 2008- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). It’s clear that this projected change in population and demographic character will result in an increase in the number of households within the National Park. NRS’s (2018) principal projection suggests that households are set to increase from 8,615 in 2016 to 9,178 in 2041, an increase of 563 (7%) (Figure 17, Figure 21 and Table 7). Given the limited nature of the projected population growth, it is clear that it does not entirely explain the projected change in the number of households. Indeed, the difference between the household and population projections is due to falling average household sizes, which are projected to drop from 2.14 people in 2016 to 1.93 people in 2041 (Figure 21) (National Records Scotland, 2018).

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9,800

9,600

9,400

9,200

9,000 High Migration 8,800 Principle Households 8,600 Low Migration

8,400

8,200

8,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

Figure 21 Overall household projections for the Cairngorms National Parks, High, Principal and Low migration scenarios 2016 to 2041 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 2.20

2.15

2.10

2.05

2.00 Persons 1.95

1.90

1.85

1.80

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

Figure 22 Projected average household size for the Cairngorms National Park, principal migration scenario 2016 to 2041 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The decreasing average household size is reflected in the changes in the number of households in each household type (Table 7). There is a projected increase of 18% in the number of adults living alone while the number of households containing one adult with children is also set to increase by 29%. There is also a projected decrease in the number of households containing two or more adults with children (-7%), or three or more adults (- 25%).

An important driver of decreasing household size is the ageing population, as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones. The National Park has a projected increase of 35% in the number of people in older age groups (65+), while children (aged zero to fifteen) and the 16 to 64 population are projected to decrease by 19% and 27 | P a g e

14%, respectively. The gap between the average life expectancy of men and women in Scotland is also narrowing. This means that the number of older men living alone is projected to increase more rapidly than the number of older women. In the Cairngorms National Park, the number of men aged 65 or over living alone is projected to increase by 62%, while the number of women in the same age group is projected to increase by 24%, although there will still be more older women than men living alone in 2041.

Table 7 Household projections for the Cairngorms National, by type of household, principal migration scenario 2016 to 2041 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Household Type 2016 2041 Change 2016-2041 1 adult 2,879 3,393 +514 18% 2 adults 3,189 3,360 +171 5% 1 adult with children 460 593 +133 29% 2+ adults with children 1,521 1,409 -112 -7% 3+ adults 566 423 -143 -25% All households 8,615 9,178 +563 7%

Household projections are important as they offer a useful starting point in informing the National Park’s future housing land requirement. These need to be interpreted and considered alongside other factors and trends, including housing need and demand as well as supply. Jointly, these combine to inform the new housing land requirement that the CNPA will need to identify and the type of housing that requires to be provided.

3.3 Housing Market Characteristics

House Prices and Affordability Between 1993 and 20178, the median price of a property in the Cairngorms National Park saw a net rise of over 250%, with a peak in 2015 of £197,500, though the 2017 price of £197,375 is a statistically insignificant difference. The lower quartile9 price saw a similar rise of around 240% and in 2017 reached its zenith of £150,400 (Table 8, Figure 23 and Figure 24). The ‘credit crunch’ does not appear to have had much of an immediate impact on prices, although it seems to have resulted in a lower level of sales between 2007 and 2017. The growth in house prices has also been lower and more variable since 2007.

Between 2007 and 2017, the median house price to median household income/earnings ratio in the National Park fell from over 8 times income to around 6. However, despite this improvement, the lower availability of mortgage finance for first time buyers means that many aspiring households still cannot afford to buy.

8 These are the most recent house price estimates available at a data zone level at the time of writing. 9 Lower quartile house price data is the average price in the lowest quarter of all house prices. 28 | P a g e

Table 8 Median House Prices in the Cairngorms National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot and www.nomisweb.co.uk).

Annual Annual Change in Estimated Annual Annual Median Lower Change in Estimated Median Median Sale Change in Number of Change in Gross Year Quartile Lower Median House Price Price Median Sales Number of Household House Price Quartile Gross / Income House Price Sales Income10 House Price Household Ratio Income

1993 £43,750 N/A £56,000 N/A 237 N/A

1994 £44,200 1.0% £58,500 4.5% 222 -6.30%

1995 £52,400 15.6% £60,000 2.6% 234 5.40% 1996 £48,400 -8.3% £59,000 -1.7% 233 -0.40%

1997 £47,900 -1.0% £65,500 11.0% 274 17.60% No data

1998 £45,300 -5.7% £57,000 -13.0% 276 0.70% 1999 £52,100 13.1% £68,876 20.8% 301 9.10%

2000 £55,600 6.3% £75,000 8.9% 258 -14.30%

2001 £55,700 0.2% £75,000 0.0% 344 33.30% 2002 £61,500 9.4% £87,000 16.0% 338 -1.70% £21,465 N/A 4

2003 £70,000 12.1% £93,250 7.2% 334 -1.20% £22,108 3.0% 4

2004 £88,700 21.1% £125,000 34.0% 306 -8.40% £22,466 1.6% 5 2005 £105,100 15.6% £146,000 16.8% 328 7.20% £23,847 6.1% 6

2006 £128,800 18.4% £175,000 19.9% 392 19.50% £25,058 5.1% 6

2007 £131,300 1.9% £180,500 3.1% 414 5.60% £25,598 2.2% 7

10 Based on Scottish Government Experimental Statistics on Local Level Household Income Estimates (Scottish Government, 2017). 29 | P a g e

2008 £142,200 7.7% £181,000 0.3% 287 -30.70% £27,039 5.6% 7

2009 £127,500 -11.5% £175,000 -3.3% 229 -20.20% £28,711 6.2% 6

2010 £147,400 13.5% £190,000 8.6% 289 26.20% £28,915 0.7% 6 2011 £145,800 -1.1% £191,000 0.5% 251 -13.10% £29,069 0.5% 6

2012 £127,300 -14.5% £176,500 -7.6% 230 -8.40% £29,774 2.4% 6

2013 £121,800 -4.5% £165,000 -6.5% 294 -27.80% £30,206 1.5% 5 2014 £147,100 17.2% £185,000 12.1% 351 19.40% £31,058 2.8% 6

2015 £141,400 -4.0% £197,500 6.8% 341 -2.90% £31,070 0.0% 6

2016 £134,200 -5.4% £181,500 -8.1% 298 -12.60% £32,483 4.5% 5 2017 £150,400 10.8% £197,375 8.8% 319 7% £33,412 2.9% 6

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£200,000 £180,000 £160,000 £140,000 £120,000 £100,000 £80,000 £60,000 £40,000 £20,000 £0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Median Sale Price Median Gross Household Income Lower Quartile House Price Theoretical income needed to meet 3.5 of Median Sale price - 10% deposit Theoretical income needed to meet 3.5 of Lower Quartile Sale price - 10% deposit Theoretical maximum house price afffordable to housholds on a gross median income

Figure 23 House prices and household incomes within the Cairngorms National Park 1993-2017 (Sources: www.statistics.gov.scot; Scottish Government, 2017 & Nomis: Official Labour Market Statistics). Both median and lower quartile prices are above the national average. In 2017 the National Park’s median and lower quartile prices were 26% in the case of the former and 42% in the case of the latter, higher than Scotland’s. Indeed, the 2017 Scottish median price of £152,355 is only a little bit higher than the National Park’s lower quartile price, and throughout the data series the two have always remained relatively close (Figure 24).

What this means in practice is that those on a median income within the Cairngorms will not only struggle to purchase a property at the median price, but will also struggle afford a property at the lower quartile price. To demonstrate this, Figure 23 shows three income scenarios; the first being the estimated median household income of the National Park, which in 2017 was approximately £33,400. The other two represent theoretical minimum incomes and deposits required to be able to afford a property at the median and lower quartile prices. It is recognised that criteria for qualifying for a mortgage are more complex than this and will include factors such as age, personal debt and number of dependents, however the scenarios offer a reasonable benchmark, which is likely to err on the generous side. According to these, in 2017 households required a gross income of around £51,000 (42% higher than the median) to afford a median priced house and gross income of around £39,000 (15% higher than the median) to afford the lower quartile price. By applying the same assumptions, in 2017 households on a median income were likely be able to afford a 31 | P a g e

property with a maximum value of around £129,000. In effect, households need to be in at least the eighth decile for gross UK household income to be able purchase a property at around the median price and in the sixth decile to be able purchase a property at around the lower quartile price. The National Park’s gross median income is currently in the fifth decile. Information on income deciles is available from the Office of National Statistics (Office for National Statistics, 2018).

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000

£50,000

£0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CNP Median House Price CNP Lower Quartile House Price Scottish Median House Price Scottish Lower Quartile House Price

Figure 24 Median and lower quartile house prices for Cairngorms National Park and whole of Scotland (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). There is also considerable variation in house prices across the National Park, ranging from £125,000 to £310,000 in the median price (Figure 25) and £89,500 to £265,000 in the lower quartile price. There were no areas where the median house price / median household income/earnings ratio was below 4, while several areas, including parts of Strathdon and Badenoch and Strathspey, had the greatest difference, with median house prices being in the region of 8 times median incomes (Figures 27 - 33). However, it should be noted that the volume of sales for most data zones is relatively low from year to year and therefore annual median house prices and income rations can vary, sometimes greatly, from year to year. Certain areas do however have consistently high median prices, namely Aviemore and its surrounding area, Deeside and the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park.

Another aspect of this spatial variability is that since 1993 the range of median house prices has grown significantly. In 1993 the difference between the lowest and highest median price was £73,005, while in 2017 it was £185,000, a change of nearly 150%. This suggests that

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while median house prices have risen in all parts of the National Park, they have grown significantly faster in certain data zones than it has in others. This change can be observed spatially in Figure 27 to Figure 31, which shows the change in median prices by data zone at 5 year intervals beginning in 1997. In 1997 no data zones had a median price in excess of £100,000. In 2017 the lowest median house price was £125,000 and represented just one data zone.

£400,000

£350,000

£300,000

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000

£50,000

£0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figure 25 Box plots of Median House Prices of data zones within the Cairngorms National Park 1993-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 450 £250,000 400 350 £200,000

300 £150,000 250 200 £100,000

Number of sales 150 Median Median House Price 100 £50,000 50 0 £0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Aberdeenshire Highland Moray Perth & Kinross Median House Price

Figure 26 Number of House sales by Local Authority area within the Cairngorms National Park 1993-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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Figure 27 Median House Prices of data zones within the Figure 28 Median House Prices of data zones within the Figure 29 Median House Prices of data zones within the Cairngorms National Park in 1997. Cairngorms National Park in 2002. Cairngorms National Park in 2007.

0 – £100,000 £100,000 – £150,000 £150,000 – £200,000 £200,000 - £250,000 £250,000 – £300,000 £300,000 – £350,000 £350,000 – £400,000 All maps are at a scale of 1:1,400,000 All maps are reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms Figure 30 Median House Prices of data zones within the Figure 31 Median House Prices of data zones within the National Park Authority. Source: Cairngorms National Park in 2012. Cairngorms National Park in 2017. www.statistics.gov.scot

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< 3

N 4 North 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 >

Figure 32 Median House Price / Income ratio of data zones within the Cairngorms National Park in 2007.

Scale: 1:700,000

Figure 33 Median House Price / Income ratio of data zones within the Cairngorms National Park in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.sco). Figure 32 and Figure 34 are at a scale of 1:1,400,000 All maps are reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. Figure 34 Median House Price / Income ratio of data zones within the Cairngorms National Park in 2012.

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Figure 26 shows the number of house sales average house price data is based on. This shows variability in line with macro-economic trends, with the zenith being reached just before the effects of the 2008 economic crash were felt. The number of sales has since been more variable than average house prices and has a closer correlation with the number of housing completions that have occurred within these years; this is not unexpected (see Figure 35 and Figure 36). One of the things that the data does demonstrate is the relatively low number of sales that have consistently occurred most areas, with the median number of sales in each data zone being 11 per annum between 1993 and 2017. The median number of sales for the whole National Park is 294 per annum for the same period, with most sales occurring within Badenoch and Strathspey. Housing completions are discussed in more detail, later in this report.

450 450 400 400

350 350

300 300 250 250 200 200

House sales 150 150

100 100 Housing completions 50 50 0 0

House sales Housing completions

Figure 35 House sales and housing completions for years 2000-2017 (Sources: www.statistics.gov.scot and Local Authorities). 250

200

150

100 Housing completions 50

0 200 250 300 350 400 450 House sales

Figure 36 Relationship between house sales and housing completions for years 2000-2017 (Sources: www.statistics.gov.scot & Local Authorities). 36 | P a g e

Current Asking Prices The CNPA has carried out several surveys of the current asking price for property within the National Park based on a search of Estate Agent and property marketing websites. The first of these was carried out between 17th and 18th September 2015, where it was found that there were 166 properties for sale, on the 19th December 2016 where 108 were identified and on 1st October 2018 when 72 were identified (Figure 37 and Figure 38). In all three surveys, the vast majority were within Badenoch and Strathspey.

180 160 140 120 100 80

No. propertiesNo. 60 40 20 0 Flat Terraced Semi-detached Detached All House Types

2015 2016 2018

Figure 37 Property types on sale within the Cairngorms National Park, September 2015, December 2016 and October 2018. 50 45 40

35 30 25 20

No. propertiesNo. 15 10 5 0

2015 2016 2018

Figure 38 Property types by number of bedrooms on sale within the Cairngorms National Park, September 2015, December 2016 and October 2018.

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According to these samples, the median asking price within the National Park in both 2015 and 2016 was £225,000 (Figure 39), which is around 8 times greater than median income/earnings, while in 2018 it was £215,000, which is around 7 times greater than median income/earnings. Complexities exist in equating this to a median sale price as this will be dependent on negotiation at the point of sale. Within the National Park, properties priced below the median are often sold at a price above their asking price and valuation while properties above often go at or below their valuation.

The high median asking price quoted in this study is likely to be in part due to the current dominance of large and / or detached units within the sample as the median asking price for detached properties is around twice that of terraced and semi-detached properties and around three times that of flats.

The relatively low numbers of small units in the sample may be due to a number of reasons. Firstly, it is likely that such units are sold quicker than larger units and therefore the number of properties counted in a sample such as this is always likely to be low. Secondly, based on information derived from Council Tax payments, it is evident that the National Park contains a lower proportion of smaller houses than the Scottish average (see Table 18 and Table 19).

£350,000.00 £300,000.00 £250,000.00 £200,000.00 £150,000.00 £100,000.00 £50,000.00 £0.00 Flat Terraced Semi-detached Detached All House Types

2015 2016 2018

Figure 39 Median asking price by property type the Cairngorms National Park, September 2015, December 2016 and October 2018. While the overall median asking price has remained the same, large rises are seen in the asking price of flats (39.3%) and semi-detached (29.8%) properties. This is of concern as these properties are usually those, by virtue of their relatively low cost, favoured by those on median and below median incomes. The cause of this increase is difficult to ascertain, however it could simply be a reflection of the small sample size. Indeed the low sample size is reflected in the significant variability of the median time on market for such properties (Figure 40).

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400

350

300

250

200

150

100 Median Median Time on (days) Market 50

0 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Detached Semi-detached Terraced Flat All House Types

Figure 40 Median time of properties on market in postcode areas covering the Cairngorms National Park 2008-2017 (Source: www.home.co.uk). The way in which property is marketed can also give a strong indication of the nature of the current market and so the CNPA’s study also collated this information (Figure 41). It should be noted that this data is highly qualitative in nature, with different estate agents choosing to market their clients’ property in different ways. However, given the abundance of large detached properties available, it is unsurprising to find few houses marketed to first time buyers. It is also significant that a relatively high proportion of properties are marketed as potential holiday homes, although unsurprising given the relatively high proportion of such homes within the National Park (Figure 47).

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

2015 2016 2018

Figure 41 Marketing of properties within the Cairngorms National Park September 2015, December 2016 and October 2018. Note that most properties are marketed to more than one type of buyer. 39 | P a g e

Together, data on incomes, median house prices and the availability of house types reveals that there is a significant issue within the National Park relating to the provision of affordable housing for first time buyers and those on or around median incomes.

Council Tax Council Tax information can also provide an indication of affordability since bands are based on the value of property. Properties are put into one of eight bands (A-H), based on their value in April 1991.

Table 9 Council Tax bands Council Council Ranges of value Ranges of value tax band tax band A Up to £27,000 E £58,000 - £80,000 B £27,000 - £35,000 F £800,000 - £106,000 C £35,000 - £45,000 G £106,000 -212,000 D £45,000 - £58,000 H More than £212,000

Table 10 and Table 11 show that there is a lower proportion of properties within bands A and B, significantly so in the case of band A.

100% 90% 80% Band H 70% Band G 60% Band F 50% Band E 40% Band D 30% Band C 20% Band B 10% Band A 0% CNPA Scotland

Figure 42 Comparison between Proportion of properties by Council Tax band in the Cairngorms National Park and Scotland in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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Table 10 Number of properties by Council Tax band in the Cairngorms National Park in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of All National Band A Band B Band C Band D Band E Band F Band G Band H Dwellings Park ABD 1,937 200 272 201 376 338 335 197 18 Highland 7,290 332 1,382 1,726 963 1,455 852 540 40 Moray 418 112 57 101 82 47 9 5 5 PKC 541 33 95 118 112 89 40 35 19 CNPA 10,186 677 1,806 2,146 1,533 1,929 1,236 777 82 Scotland 2,603,174 547,908 599,800 418,991 348,403 347,591 199,451 127,260 13,770

Table 11 Proportion of properties by Council Tax band in the Cairngorms National Park in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of All National Band A Band B Band C Band D Band E Band F Band G Band H Dwellings Park ABD 100% 10.3% 14.0% 10.4% 19.4% 17.4% 17.3% 10.2% 0.9% Highland 100% 4.6% 19.0% 23.7% 13.2% 20.0% 11.7% 7.4% 0.5% Moray 100% 26.8% 13.6% 24.2% 19.6% 11.2% 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% PKC 100% 6.1% 17.6% 21.8% 20.7% 16.5% 7.4% 6.5% 3.5% CNPA 100% 6.6% 17.7% 21.1% 15.1% 18.9% 12.1% 7.6% 0.8% Scotland 100% 21.0% 23.0% 16.1% 13.4% 13.4% 7.7% 4.9% 0.5%

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Time on Market We also have data on the average length of time properties spent on the market. It can be seen that in Aviemore there is significant pressure for housing as properties are only on the market for an average of 73 days. In other parts of the National Park average times are much longer, with the greatest being in the Tomintoul and Glenlivet area where 487 days is the average. There may be a number of reasons for this, including the access to jobs and services these areas offer.

All data in the following tables was collected on 28/09/2018 from www.home.co.uk.

Aberdeenshire Settlements

AB35 (Ballater & Braemar) Summary Total properties for sale 36 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 0 Mean asking price £257,167 Median asking price £206,000 Mean time on market (days) 236 days Median time on market (days) 134 days

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 2 123 £100,000 to £200,000 16 259 £200,000 to £300,000 8 199 £300,000 to £400,000 7 295 £400,000 to £500,000 1 125 £500,000 to £1,000,000 2 165 over £1,000,000 0 0

AB36 (Strathdon) Summary Total properties for sale 9 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 0 Mean asking price £252,000 Median asking price £250,500 Mean time on market (days) 194 days Median time on market (days) 97 days

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Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 0 0 £100,000 to £200,000 4 111 £200,000 to £300,000 2 300 £300,000 to £400,000 1 97 £400,000 to £500,000 0 0 £500,000 to £1,000,000 2 306 over £1,000,000 0 0

Highland Settlements

Aviemore Summary Total properties for sale 8 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 2 Mean asking price £303,750 Median asking price £215,000 Mean time on market (days) 77 days Median time on market (days) 73 days

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 1 48 £100,000 to £200,000 2 22 £200,000 to £300,000 3 80 £300,000 to £400,000 1 184 £400,000 to £500,000 0 0 £500,000 to £1,000,000 1 97 over £1,000,000 0 0

Grantown-on-Spey Summary Total properties for sale 17 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 4 Mean asking price £194,412 Median asking price £185,000 Mean time on market (days) 69 days Median time on market (days) 48 days 43 | P a g e

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 3 114 £100,000 to £200,000 8 42 £200,000 to £300,000 3 90 £300,000 to £400,000 3 75 £400,000 to £500,000 0 0 £500,000 to £1,000,000 0 0 over £1,000,000 0 0

PH21 (Kingussie & Kincarig) Summary Total properties for sale 13 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 2 Mean asking price £254,885 Median asking price £240,000 Mean time on market (days) 230 days Median time on market (days) 138 days

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 1 1 £100,000 to £200,000 3 674 £200,000 to £300,000 6 253 £300,000 to £400,000 1 3 £400,000 to £500,000 1 122 £500,000 to £1,000,000 1 105 over £1,000,000 0 0

PH20 (Newtonmore) Summary Total properties for sale 9 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 1 Mean asking price £273,111 Median asking price £205,000 Mean time on market (days) 232 days Median time on market (days) 157 days

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Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 0 0 £100,000 to £200,000 4 267 £200,000 to £300,000 2 13 £300,000 to £400,000 2 161 £400,000 to £500,000 0 0 £500,000 to £1,000,000 1 678 over £1,000,000 0 0

Moray Settlements

AB37 (Tomintoul & Glenlivet) Summary Total properties for sale 20 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 0 Mean asking price £140,250 Median asking price £126,000 Mean time on market (days) 487 days Median time on market (days) 345 days

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 6 866 £100,000 to £200,000 11 351 £200,000 to £300,000 2 330 £300,000 to £400,000 0 0 £400,000 to £500,000 1 27 £500,000 to £1,000,000 0 0 over £1,000,000 0 0

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Perth and Kinross Settlements

PH18 (Blair Atholl) Summary Total properties for sale 11 Properties for sale listed in the last 14 days 0 Mean asking price £154,627 Median asking price £130,000 Mean time on market (days) 258 days Median time on market (days) 193 days

Average time on market Asking Price Number of properties (days) under £100,000 5 406 £100,000 to £200,000 3 140 £200,000 to £300,000 3 89 £300,000 to £400,000 0 0 £400,000 to £500,000 0 0 £500,000 to £1,000,000 0 0 over £1,000,000 0 0

Origin of Buyers The origins of house buyers within the Badenoch and Strathspey Housing Market Area (HMA) (Table 12) is available from Highland Council. The data shows that the around half of buyers within Badenoch and Strathspey were already resident within the Highland Council area, with 45% coming from the HMA itself. This is relatively low compared with Highland as a whole, where 71% of buyers are moving within the authority area. Another feature particular to the Badenoch Strathspey HMA is the relatively high proportion of migrants from the rest of Scotland, which is 10% higher than any other HMA within Highland. Migrants from the rest of the UK and overseas are around the Highland average.

Table 12 Origins of House Buyers in Badenoch and Strathspey 2003-2012 (Highland Council, 2015). Percentages may not sum due to rounding. HMA of Within Rest of Rest of Rest of All sales Overseas Unknown House HMA Highland Scotland UK (100%) Badenoch and 45% 5% 31% 13% 1% 4% 2,309 Strathspey Highland N/A 71% 15% 11% 1% 3% 32,583

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New Build Between 2000 and 2008 the average completion rate in the National Park was just under 130 dwellings per year. However, the number of fell sharply following the ‘credit crunch’ in 2008 and has resulted in an average annual completion rate of around 70 new dwellings. Taken over the whole period, the average annual completion rate was about 100 new dwellings (Figure 43).

250

200

150

100 Number of completions 50

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year

Completions per year Underlying trend

Figure 43 Number of completed dwelling per year in the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Local Authorities). Being the area of the National Park in which most development takes place, completions in the Highland area of the National Park heavily influence this trend with development peaking in 2006, and falling to a nadir in 2013 (Figure 44). 250

200

150

100

Number of completions 50

0 200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Angus Aberdeenshire Highland Moray Perth & Kinross

Figure 44 Number of competed dwelling per year in the Cairngorms National Park by Local Authority area (Source: Local Authorities). 47 | P a g e

Table 13 Number of completed dwellings by 5 year period in the Cairngorms National Park by Local Authority area (plus the most recent 3 years (the current LDP period)), (Source: Local Authorities).

Local Authority Area 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2017 2000-2017

Angus 1 1 0 0 2 Aberdeenshire 111 67 44 35 257

Highland 387 607 263 165 1,422

Moray 8 21 14 2 45 Perth & Kinross 16 11 6 2 35

Total 523 707 327 204 1,761

Table 14 Mean annual completion rates by 5 year periods (representing Local Plan periods), plus the most recent 3 years (the current LDP period), for the Cairngorms National Park by Local Authority area (Source: Local Authorities).

Local Authority Area 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2017 2000-2017

Angus 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.1

Aberdeenshire 22 13 9 12 15.1 Highland 77 121 53 55 83.6

Moray 2 4 3 1 26

Perth & Kinross 16 2 1 1 2.1 Total 104 141 65 68 103.6

The number of affordable houses completed across the whole National Park is not available, however information for Badenoch and Strathspey and Aberdeenshire is. According to data from Highland Council, between 2004 and 2015, of the 2,005 dwellings completed in the area, 335 met some form of affordable criteria (around 17%) (Figure 45). Over the same period, out of 257 completed dwellings in Aberdeenshire, only 20 were affordable (around 8%). It is unsurprising to find that the completion rates in affordable housing broadly correlate with overall completion rates.

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70 60

50 40 30 20 Number of unitsof Number 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Home Ownership (Rural Housing Ownership Grant) Home Ownership Private Developer Home Ownership (Open Market Shared Equity) Home Ownership (Low Cost Home Ownership - Shared Ownership) Home Ownership (Low Cost Home Ownership - New Supply Shared Equity) Housing Association Rent for Special Needs Housing Association Rent for General Needs Council House Building Rent

Figure 45 Affordable housing completions by tenure type in Badenoch and Strathspey (Source: Highland Council). Ineffective Stock In 2017 the National Park had a higher proportion of ineffective stock (the sum of second homes and vacant dwellings) than the rest of Scotland (about 16% and 4% respectively) and indeed its surrounding Local Authorities (Figure 46)

100%

95%

90%

85%

80%

75%

Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 46 Dwelling occupancy types in the Cairngorms National Park, comparable authorities and Scotland in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot)11.12

11 CNP: Cairngorms National Park; LLTNP: Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park. 49 | P a g e

Second homes form the most significant proportion of this ineffective stock. Comparisons with Scotland’s other authorities in fact demonstrates that the proportion of properties in second home ownership within the National Park, is significantly higher than elsewhere in Scotland (Figure 47), accounting for around 12% of all dwellings. Furthermore, the level of second homes in the Cairngorms National Park is much higher than its sister authority, the Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park, where it is around 5%.

12%

10%

0% Fife CNP Angus Moray Falkirk Stirling LLTNP Scotland Highland Inverclyde Midlothian East Lothian Dundee City East Ayrshire Renfrewshire Glasgow City West Lothian Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Orkney Islands South Ayrshire Argyll and Bute North Ayrshire Shetland Islands Scottish Borders City of Edinburgh Perth and Kinross South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Na h-Eileanan Siar Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire Dumfries and Galloway

Figure 47 Proportion of dwellings used as second homes by authority area in Scotland in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The level of Second homes is not evenly distributed throughout the National Park, with the proportion of dwellings varying between 2% in data zone S01010544, which covers part of Grantown-on-Spey, and 22% in data zone S01006793, which covers Kincraig. Table 15 and Figure 48 shows that overall Badenoch and Strathspey has the lowest proportion of second homes, however, as it is the most densely developed part of the National Park, it is also home to the greatest number by some considerable margin. At a local level however, parts of Strathspey have levels of second homes that are closer area as higher than

12 Second homes are defined as dwellings that are subject to a Council Tax discount of between 10 per cent and 50 per cent due to being second homes. This includes self-catering holiday accommodation available to let for a total of less than 140 days per year. Second homes which are let out for 140 days or more are not included in these figures. 50 | P a g e

anywhere else in the National Park, with the areas around Boat of Garten, Glenmore, Knicraig, Nethy Bridge experiencing levels of around 18% to 21%.

Table 15 Ineffective housing stock in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of National Occupied Vacant Second Ineffective All Dwellings Park Dwellings Dwellings Homes Stock Aberdeenshire 1,929 77.8% 6.9% 15.2% 22.1% Highland 7,312 86.5% 2.8% 10.7% 13.5% Moray 418 76.6% 9.3% 14.1% 23.4% Perth & Kinross 537 78.8% 7.8% 13.4% 21.2% CNP 10,196 84.0% 4.1% 11.8% 16.0%

0 – 4% 4 – 8% North 8 – 12% 12 – 16% 16 – 20% 20 – 24%

Scale: 1:700,000

Figure 48 Proportion of second homes by data zone in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. Further insight into the nature of second home ownership and ineffective stock can be derived from a comparison with other parts of Scotland. Figure 49, which shows the percentage of ineffective stock within each data zone and Figure 50, which shows the percentage of second homes, show that the median for both is higher than every other authority within Scotland.

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0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

CNP LLTNP Scotland Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Argyll & Bute Clackmananshire Dumfries & Galloway Dundee City East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Lothain East Renfrewshire City of Edinburgh Eiean Siar Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Moray North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Renfrewshire Scottish Borders Shetland Islands South Aytshire South Lanarkshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire West Lothian

Figure 49 Percentage of dwellings in each data zone that are ineffective stock (vacant and second homes) in each authority area in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Figure 50 Percentage of dwellings in each data zone that are second homes in each authority area in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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Second home ownership is problematic on two grounds. Firstly, unless sold second homes are not available to housing need. This is particularly an issue in terms of new-build housing as this housing is deliver specifically to meet existing and arising need. Secondly it is problematic because there is evidence to suggest that it has an impact on house prices. Bramley’s (2008) research on the relationship between house prices and second homes in England suggests that for every 1% of the housing stock in second home-ownership, prices are 1.4% per cent higher per house.

The issue of second home ownership has been raised in a recent study commissioned by Highlands and Islands Enterprise (Ipsos Mori, 2017).

Data for residential properties paying non-domestic rates (i.e. domestic properties being used as self-catering tourist accommodation) is available for the Badenoch and Strathspey area (Figure 51), where 363 such units were found. As might be expected, the largest number of these properties are in Aviemore, however, there are also a number of settlements, which for their size, also host a relatively high number, namely Boat of Garten, Dulnain Bridge, Nethy Bridge, Kincraig and Laggan.

140

120

100

Figure 51 Number of self-catering units within Badenoch and Strathspey by nearest settlement, 2015 (Source: Highland Council). Occupation and Tenure Owner occupation is the dominant tenure, with the 2011 Census (Table Q405SC) indicating that around 65% of households are owner-occupiers (either owned outright or with a mortgage) (Figure 52). This is an increase of around 3% since 2001.

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Living rent free 50% Private rented 40% Social rented 30% Owned 20% 10% 0% CNPA Scotland

Figure 52 Housing tenue as a proportion of all stock (Source: Census Table QS405SC). Social rent is the next biggest tenure and accounts for around 16% of households (around the same as 2001). It remains high despite 1,069 council houses within the National Park being sold through Right to Buy schemes between 1980 and 2005 (Figure 53). Following recent legislative changes, from 1st August 2016 the Right to Buy has been abolished for all tenants in Scotland. Levels of social housing stock are however lower than elsewhere in Scotland. According to Highland Council there are currently 878 social rented units within Badenoch and Strathspey. The Council’s HNDA (2015) also notes that there is a notably low proportion of 3 bed social rent units within the area. 90 80 70 60

50 40 Units sold 30 20 10 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Moray Perth & Kinross Aberdeenshire Highland

Figure 53 Council houses sold between 1980 and 2005 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Around 14% of households rent from the private sector, which is a fall of around 6% since 2001 (down from 20%). One unusual facet of the National Park’s rented sector is the relatively high proportion of households renting from an employer of a household member.

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In 2011 these households represented 5% of the private rented market. It is likely that these households largely represent estate workers and seasonal workers in the tourism sector, where accommodation is often included with the job.

There was however a drop in this tenure class from 35% in 2001; the reasons for which are uncertain. In part it may represent a change in the categorisation of tenure definitions, for while the 2001 census records no households as living rent free, the 2011 indicates a level of 4%. Other causes may include changes in the working practices of estates and the sale of estate stock.

A survey of internet sources, including estate agents and property management websites and Gumtree, carried out on October 1st 2018 found only 5 private properties for rent within the National Park, ranging in size from 2 to 5 bedrooms. While the median rent of this sample was £625 PCM, it is not possible to use it to build a robust evidence base on rental prices, as property is often advertised in locally published news sheets, social media and by word of mouth. Nevertheless, the exercise, which has been carried out periodically since 2015, demonstrates that the private rental market in the Cairngorms is extremely limited.

Table 16 shows variation in tenure between the different parts of the National Park, with levels of owner occupation above the national average in all but one of the Local Authority areas. No areas have levels of social renting above the national average, however, with the exception of Perth and Kinross, private sector renting is higher than the national average in all areas. In the case of Aberdeenshire and Moray, the levels of private renting are particularly high, equating to around 21% and 25% respectively.

Table 16 Housing tenue as a proportion of all stock in 2011 (Source: Census Table QS405SC). Area of National Owned Social Rented Private Rented Living Rent Free Park Aberdeenshire 56.6% 14.3% 21.3% 7.7% Highland 66.9% 17.2% 12.7% 3.2% Moray 58.8% 8.3% 25.4% 7.5% Perth & Kinross 76.5% 17.0% 6.6% 0.0% CNPA 65.2% 16.4% 14.4% 4.0% Scotland 62.0% 24.3% 12.4% 1.3%

Property Type and Size Table 17 , Table 18 and Table 19 show the numbers and proportions of different house types and sizes for all tenures across the National Park. The data indicates that at a National Park level, there are a higher proportion of detached and large dwellings and a lower proportion of small ones, especially in the form of flats and terraced housing. In particular, there is a significantly smaller proportion of three roomed dwellings within the National Park than there are across Scotland as a whole, which is likely to reflect the low number of flats.

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Table 17 Dwelling types in Cairngorms National Park 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of National Park All Detached Flats Semi-Detached Terraced Unknown Aberdeenshire 1,937 56.2% 1,088 9.4% 183 25.6% 495 8.8% 171 0.0% 0 Highland 7,290 49.3% 35,96 12.2% 892 22.3% 1,625 14.1% 1,028 2.0% 149 Moray 418 63.2% 264 3.8% 16 23.0% 96 10.0% 42 0.0% 0 Perth and Kinross 541 59.9% 324 5.7% 31 18.9% 102 12.9% 70 2.6% 14 CNPA 10,186 51.8% 5,272 11.0% 1,122 22.8% 2,318 12.9% 1,311 1.6% 163 Scotland 2,603,174 21.5% 558,911 37.7% 980,290 19.7% 511,583 20.5% 532,963 0.7% 19,427

Table 18 Number of properties by size in the Cairngorms National Park in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of Ten or All One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Unkno National more Dwellings Room Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms wn Park rooms ABD 1,937 40 220 294 438 410 245 128 74 37 51 0 Highland 7,290 27 710 1,711 1,872 1,200 712 426 177 85 140 230 Moray 418 6 38 49 118 97 49 27 15 6 13 0 PKC 541 2 27 92 166 101 50 41 13 15 31 3 CNPA 10,186 75 995 2,146 2,594 1,808 1,056 622 279 143 235 233 Scotland 2,603,174 28,632 304,447 754,626 684,560 425,583 199,666 92,424 41,440 17,417 14,736 39,643 Table 19 Proportion of properties by size in the Cairngorms National Park in 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Area of Ten or All One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Unkno National more Dwellings Room Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms Rooms wn Park rooms ABD 100% 2.1% 11.4% 15.2% 22.6% 21.2% 12.6% 6.6% 3.8% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% Highland 100% 0.4% 9.7% 23.5% 25.7% 16.5% 9.8% 5.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.9% 3.2% Moray 100% 1.4% 9.1% 11.7% 28.2% 23.2% 11.7% 6.5% 3.6% 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% PKC 100% 0.4% 5.0% 17.0% 30.7% 18.7% 9.2% 7.6% 2.4% 2.8% 5.7% 0.6% CNPA 100% 0.7% 9.8% 21.1% 25.5% 17.7% 10.4% 6.1% 2.7% 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% Scotland 100% 1.1% 11.7% 29.0% 26.3% 16.3% 7.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5%

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3.4 Identifying Housing Need “In the National Parks, local development plans should draw on the evidence provided by the HNDAs of the constituent housing authorities. National Park authorities should aim to meet the housing land requirement in full in their area. However, they are not required to do so, and they should liaise closely with neighbouring planning authorities to ensure that any remaining part of the housing land requirement for the National Parks is met in immediately adjoining housing market areas, and that a 5-year supply of effective land is maintained.”

Paragraph 121, Scottish Planning Policy 2014

Although a certain level of data can be collected to identify issues to be addressed within the National Park, identifying robust estimates of the type and tenure of housing required is complicated by the fact that the CNPA is not responsible for the production of a Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA). This responsibility falls to the Local Authorities that cover the National Park’s area and therefore, evidence must be drawn from 5 separate HNDAs covering Aberdeenshire, Angus, Highland, Moray and Perth and Kinross. Naturally, this means that HNDAs are produced over and cover different time periods, do not always contain compatible or consistent data and can contain Housing Market Areas13 (HMA) that cover geographical regions of contrasting character and size. Reconciling these studies is therefore often a difficult task in which gaps in information inevitably occur.

It should be noted that the scenario outputs from HDNAs do NOT automatically translate into the housing supply targets for Local Development Plans and Local Housing Strategies. It is the role of the Cairngorms National Park Authority and the five Councils that cover its area to consider the conclusions of this HNDA alongside some of the wider social, economic, environmental and physical considerations. Together these factors inform policy decisions about the scale of house building that is planned for and the locations where this is to be accommodated.

Housing Need & Demand

Highland Area The greatest geographical area of the National Park falls within the Highland Council’s local authority area. This area is also home to the majority of the National Park’s population and is the area that has experienced the greatest population growth. The Highland HNDA (2015) identifies Badenoch and Strathspey as a HMA, the majority of which lies within the National Park’s Boundary. The areas that lie outside of the National Park comprise:

 153 km2 around Advie, which contains 153 dwellings registered on the Council Tax database;  Two areas, which combined cover 132 km2 in the Monadhliath Mountains which have no dwellings; and

13 Housing Market Areas are functional areas that represent the spatial area where the majority of people moving house (without changing employment) search and purchase housing. 58 | P a g e

 417 km2 around Laggan, which contains 20 dwellings on the Council Tax database.

97.6% of the housing stock in the HMA lies within the Park area and for most long term planning purposes the two can be considered to be equivalent.

Comparison of Scenarios

Highland Council’s HNDA (2015) argues that population projections produced by NRS are based on the continuation of recent trends and, for the key parameter of migration, they are based on the average of the five years prior to the projection base year. For the 2012 projections this is the period mid-2007 to mid-2012 which spans the credit crunch and recession. These economic factors, the Council argues, had a significant impact on migration to and from Highland during the period. The net result is that even the high migration scenario used by National Registers of Scotland is likely to underestimate the growth of Highland. Use of the lower household growth rates will not result in the generous supply of housing land required by Government policy, and the ensuing shortage of housing land could well present a barrier to economic growth (Highland Council, 2015).

Therefore, in addition to the low, principal and high growth scenarios, the HNDA also considers a ‘continued growth’ scenario that aims to deliver the 20 year historic average rate of house building (1,180 houses per year over the whole Authority area) during the first half of the period but recognises that demand will fall during the second half as the margin of deaths over births increases. The Highland total has been allocated to individual HMAs in the same proportion as the high migration scenario already calculated.

Table 20 and Table 21 below compare the HNDA’s low, principal, high and continued growth scenarios. The figures for the low projection show that much of the need and requirement is coming from changing circumstances of the existing population, as well as from new households moving into Highland.

The HNDA’s assumption is that the backlog of existing affordable need will be removed over 10 years, and therefore the103 units identified as backlog in Badenoch and Strathspey have been split evenly between the 2015-2019 and 2020-2024 time periods in all four scenarios in Table 20 and Table 21. This accounts for the relative insensitivity of the need for social rented housing to the choice of scenario, with the need rising from 113 (low) to 156 (continued growth) in the 2015-2019 period and from 108 (low) to 169 (continued growth) in the 2020-2024 period.

Although the existing need is also included in the requirement, its proportion of the total is lower and the total requirement varies significantly with the scenario, rising from 277 (low) to 438 (continued growth) in the 2015-2019 period and 256 (low) to 457 (continued growth) in the 2020-2024 period. The low and principal scenarios are considered to be unlikely unless we experience another significant economic setback, but even in this eventuality there would still be a requirement for between 70 and 89 dwelling per year in the 2015-2019 period and 74 and 91 new dwellings in the 2020-2024 period. 59 | P a g e

Table 20 and Table 21 show that the differences between the scenarios widen during the full 20 years of the HNDA, largely because population growth stagnates under the two lower growth scenarios. The requirement falls each year during the later time periods. In addition, the existing need for social rented housing is removed during the first 10 years and there are no equivalent figures in the second half of the period.

Further information on the current need for affordable housing can be found in APPENDIX 3: Highland Waiting list 2018 (page 125).

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Table 20 Comparison of Highland HNDA Scenarios for Badenoch and Strathspey HMA (Highland Council, 2015)14. 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2035-2034 2015-2034 Growth Scenario SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR Low 113 36 78 50 277 108 33 70 45 256 50 27 57 35 169 32 17 32 19 100 303 114 238 149 804 Growth Principal 120 41 88 57 306 121 40 86 54 301 65 35 73 45 218 48 26 48 29 151 353 142 296 185 976 Growth High 132 47 103 66 348 139 52 109 69 369 71 38 73 43 225 71 38 73 43 225 429 185 383 239 1,236 Growth Continued 156 62 134 86 438 169 69 136 83 457 121 66 136 83 406 108 58 110 65 341 553 254 525 327 1,659 Growth

Table 21 Comparison of Highland HNDA Scenarios for Badenoch and Strathspey HMA – annual averages (Highland Council, 2015). 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2035-2035 2015-2034 Growth Scenario SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR SR BMR PR OO TR Low 23 7 16 10 55 22 7 14 9 51 10 5 11 7 34 6 3 6 4 20 15 6 12 7 40 Growth Principal 24 8 18 11 61 24 8 17 11 60 13 7 15 9 44 10 5 10 6 30 18 7 15 9 49 Growth High 26 9 21 13 70 28 10 22 14 74 17 9 20 12 45 14 8 15 9 45 21 9 19 12 62 Growth Continued 31 12 27 17 89 34 14 29 18 91 24 13 27 17 81 22 12 22 13 68 28 13 26 16 83 Growth

14 SR: Social Rent; BMR: Below Market Rent; PR: Private Rent: OO: Owner Occupation; TR: Total Requirement. 61 | P a g e

Aberdeenshire Area The current Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA was published in 2017. The HNDA (2017) identifies just two HMAs, Aberdeen HMA and the Rural HMA. The area of Aberdeenshire within the Cairngorms National Park has been included in the Rural HMA. The HNDA states that the Cairngorms National Park forms a relatively small part of the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire area, with the population of the Aberdeenshire area within the Cairngorms National Park accounting for just 0.6% of the population in Aberdeen city and Aberdeenshire being around 3070 in 2017.

3300

3250

3200

3150

3100

3050

3000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 54 Mid-year population estimates for Aberdeenshire part of the National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The Aberdeenshire City and Shire HNDA presents Principal, Low Migration and High Migration Scenarios. The CNPA maintains the view that the Principal Scenario is the most appropriate for the National Park; the requirement for the Rural HMA in Aberdeenshire according to this scenario is presented in Table 22.

Table 22 Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA Principal Scenario annual averages for the Rural HMA (Source: Aberdeenshire City and Shire, 2017). 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Social Rent 204 36% 164 31% 107 24% 77 20% Below Market Rent 100 18% 100 19% 98 22% 93 24% Total Affordable 304 54% 264 50% 205 46% 170 44% Private Rent 106 19% 104 20% 95 21% 82 21% Owner Occupier 157 28% 155 30% 145 33% 131 34% Total Market 263 46% 259 50% 240 54% 213 55% Total Requirement 568 N/A 523 N/A 446 N/A 387 N/A

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The HNDA estimates an annual housing need of 532 new dwellings within the whole Rural HMA over the period 2021-2025, and 446 for the 2026-2030 period, which are the closest analogous periods to the National Park’s LDP. These annual averages may be adjusted to the time frame of the Cairngorms National Park LDP and disaggregated by the proportion of the HMA’s population living within and outwith the National Park (Table 23). From this an estimated annual housing need 11.4 dwellings for the first period and 9.9 dwellings for the second period for the plan is reached. It is recognised that the number of units within the National Park is too low for it to be defined as a functional HMA and that this is a crude method of estimating housing need, however it does give a broad indication of the number of houses the CNPA needs to plan for. Over the entire plan period of 2020-2029, there is an estimated need for a total of 107 new dwellings (Table 24). This is in line with historic trends as since 2000 there has been an average completion rate of 15 dwellings per year (Figure 55 and Table 25).

Table 23 Disaggregated Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA Principal Scenario annual averages for the Cairngorms National Park area of the Rural HMA based on the 2016 based population statistics presented in the HNDA. 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Social Rent 4.4 36% 3.7 32% 2.5 26% 1.8 21% Below Market Rent 2.1 18% 2.1 19% 2.1 21% 2.0 24% Total Affordable 6.5 54% 5.8 51% 4.6 47% 3.8 45% Private Rent 2.3 19% 2.2 20% 2.1 21% 1.8 21% Owner Occupier 3.4 28% 3.3 29% 3.1 32% 2.9 34% Total Market 5.6 46% 5.6 49% 5.2 53% 4.7 55% Total Requirement 12.1 N/A 11.4 N/A 9.9 N/A 8.5 N/A

Table 24 Disaggregated Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA Principal Scenario covering Cairngorms National Park Plan periods for the Cairngorms National Park area of the Rural HMA, based on the 2016 population quoted in the HNDA. 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Social Rent 21.8 36% 18.4 32% 12.7 26% 8.9 21% Below Market 10.7 18% 10.7 19% 10.5 21% 10.1 24% Rent Total Affordable 32.6 54% 29.1 51% 23.2 47% 19.0 45% Private Rent 11.4 19% 11.2 20% 10.4 21% 9.1 21% Owner Occupier 16.8 28% 16.6 29% 15.7 32% 14.3 34% Total Market 28.2 46% 27.8 49% 26.1 53% 23.4 55% Total Requirement 60.7 N/A 56.9 N/A 49.3 N/A 42.3 N/A

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0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions Underlying trend

Figure 55 Annual completions in the Aberdeenshire area of the Cairngorms National Park. (Source: Aberdeenshire Council). Table 25 Completions by 5 year period in the Aberdeenshire area of the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Aberdeenshire Council).

Local Authority Area 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2017 2000-2017

Number of completions 111 67 44 35 257

Annual average completions 22 13 9 12 15

However, this method of disaggregating the HMA’s need is problematic, since it is not the headline population that generates a policy response, but the rate and scale at which change occurs. In 2016 the National Records of Scotland published the results of a one-off research project to produce population and household projections for sub-council areas (National Records of Scotland, 2016). Caution should be taken for sub-council area projections because small areas show more short-term change than larger areas and in the projections, these trends are continued for the length of the projection. As the process of change is cumulative, the reliability of projections decreases over time and for this reason caution should be used when considering these projections in the longer-term.

Therefore, although projections have been prepared to 2037 (25 years ahead), in line with the sub-national projections at council area and National Park level, the main results are reported to 2026. Projections become more uncertain the further ahead they project, especially for smaller areas, as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions, therefore the results to 2026 are considered more reliable than the longer- term projections and are presented in this report. Indeed, given the small population of the Aberdeenshire population within the National Park, caution should be exercised in the interpretation of all statistics relating to it. 110 | P a g e

Due to its very small population the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park falls within a broader statistical area that covers Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside.

Table 26 Projected population change for Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside sub-council area (Source: NRS, 2016). Aboyne, Upper Aboyne, Upper % of Aboyne, Aboyne, Upper Aberdeenshire Deeside and Deeside and Upper Deeside Deeside and area of CNP Donside Donside Mid- and Donside Donside Mid-year Projected year Estimate 2012 population Projected Estimate 2012 Population 2012 in CNP Population 2026 Change 11,656 3,134 26.9% 12,134 4.1%

Table 27 Projected household change for Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside sub-council area (Source: NRS, 2016). Estimate Assumed Assumed Projected Projected Households Household Size Household Size Household Households 2026 2012 2012 2026 Change 5,002 2.33 5,413 2.24 8.2%

The level of population growth projected for Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside sub- council area is considerably higher than that experienced by the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park over recent years, with mid-year population estimates suggesting that between 2001 and 2017 the population of the area remained broadly stable with no statistically significant change over the period (an estimated net decrease of 60 persons, or - 1.9%) (Figure 56). There has also been year to year variability population growth and decline so it is difficult to tell what the long term trend for the area is likely to be.

The rate of growth in the number of households has also historically been lower, with numbers growing by around 1.2% between 2008 and 2014 (Figure 63). Over the same period average household sizes appear to have remained broadly level, remaining around 2.1 persons per household over the period15.

3500

3000

2500

Persons 2000

1500

1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 56 Mid-year estimates of the total population of the Aberdeenshire area of the Cairngorms National Park 2001- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

15 Calculated as the ratio between mid-year population estimates (Figure 28) and annual estimates of occupied dwellings (Figure 29). 110 | P a g e

2500

2000

1500

1000

Number of dwellings 500

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 57 Changes in household occupation in the Aberdeenshire area of the Cairngorms National Park 2008-2017. (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The overall growth in the Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside sub-council area is likely to be heavily influenced by population and household change within its largest settlement, namely Aboyne, which lies outwith the National Park and whose population grew by around 1.6% between 2001 and 2017 (Figure 58 and Figure 59). 2350 2300 2250

2200 2150 Persons 2100 2050 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 58 Mid-year estimates of the total population of Aboyne 2001-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 1200 1100

1000 900 800 700 Number of dwellings 600 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 59 Changes in household occupation in Aboyne 2008-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 110 | P a g e

Given what we know about the nature of population and household change in the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park it is considered best to adopt a low growth scenario for housing provision in this part of the National Park. Taking account of the estimated population change in this area and the overall principal population projection for the National Park itself (Figure 14), an assumed population increase of 1% between 2012 and 2037 is not unreasonable.

Under this scenario the projected fall in average household size is the greatest driver for household change. Working on the assumptions of NRS’ principal projection, the average household size across the National Park is projected to fall from 2.15 in 2012 (the base date for NRS’ projections) to 2.02 in 2025, which represents the likely end of the next LDP’s lifespan, and 1.95 by 2037, which represents the end of the projection period. While calculations of household size based on mid-year estimates and indicate a higher average household size in 2014, it is considered best to use NRS’ estimated and projected household size, since these are derived from a larger sample population and are therefore likely to be more robust. Furthermore, it is worth noting that it is not the headline figures that are important, but the rate and scale of change and this is provided by the NRS projections. Table 28 provides an outline of these calculations.

Table 28 Projected change in households in the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park when applying NRS’ (2014) assumptions on average household sizes. 2012 Mid- 2012 Projected Projected Projected Additional Average Total 2020- year Occupied population population households households annual 2025 estimate dwellings 2025 2037 2025 2025 dwellings 3,134 1,479 3,142 3,165 1,555.4 76.4 5.5 27

On the basis of these estimates we may also consider the scenarios for Housing need identified for the Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA (2018). Again, it should be noted that this is a blunt means of assessing need and demand within the area and therefore further investigation is necessary.

Table 29 Application Table 24’s estimates to Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA Update (2018) for the Rural HMA – Total Requirement for first 5 year period. Annual Housing Annual estimate of affordable Annual Estimate market Requirements housing housing 5.5 1.8 3.7

One means of testing whether or not the estimates are realistic is to compare them against the council house waiting list maintained by Aberdeenshire Council. This information is available on a settlement basis (Table 29). It should be noted that the information in

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Table 30 counts only those applicants with a need for rehousing and applicants are counted on the basis of their first area of choice only. This means that there is no double counting where applicants have listed a number of areas for rehousing. The data does identify a need for affordable housing within the National Park area; furthermore it identifies the need for a large proportion of 1 bedroom units.

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Table 30 Total CHR Applications by Apartment Size (Mainstream and Sheltered) in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park at 31st March 2018 (Source: Aberdeenshire Council).

Waiting List 1st Choice Waiting List Any Choice Stock Relets

1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5+ Beds Unknown Total 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5+ Beds Unknown Total Ballater 42 11 4 2 0 2 61 161 53 37 25 13 3 292 96 11

Braemar 11 2 3 1 1 0 18 61 26 26 13 9 2 137 26 1 Crathie 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 68 23 20 15 7 1 134 4 0

Strathdon 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0

Total 56 14 8 3 1 2 84 293 102 84 53 29 6 567 126 12

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Another factor that needs to be taken into account is the level of ineffective Stock within the area and in particular the level of second home ownership. According to the most recent estimates (2017), ineffective stock accounted for around 22% of all dwellings within the Aberdeenshire area of the Park, with second homes accounting for around 15% of all dwellings (see Figure 57). Since 2008 this level has varied slightly from year to year, with an annual average of around 14%.

Moray Area The HNDA (2018) uses the Scottish Government’s definition of a functional housing market area and concludes that the whole of Moray is a functional HMA, within which six sub or local HMAs exist. The HNDA identifies the area of the Cairngorms National Park that lies within its boundary as one of these local HMAs.

The HNDA considers three scenarios for the housing units required between 2018 and 2037 (Table 31). The Housing Market Partnership believes Scenario 3 is the most appropriate as it best reflects the Council’s population and economic growth aspirations as well as the “thin” market for intermediate tenure housing (Table 32). It is therefore this scenario that will be taken as the basis for the Cairngorms LDP HST.

Table 31 Additional housing units 2018/19 to 2037/3816 (Source: Moray Council). HNDA HNDA HNDA Scenario 3 Tenure Scenario 1 Scenario 2 (Base - reduced (minimum) (Base) MMR variant) Social rent 1,194 2,198 2,457 Below market rent 322 705 445 Total Affordable 1,516 2,903 2,902 Private Rent 415 957 957 Owner Occupier 928 2,082 2,082 Total 2,859 5,941 5,941

Table 32 Moray Council HNDA Scenario 3 housing need and demand for the Cairngorms HMA (Source: Moray Council). 2018-22 2023-27 2028-32 2033-37 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Social rent 8.2 46% 6.1 43% 5.2 43% 5.1 44% Below market 1.3 8% 1.1 8% 1.0 8% 0.8 7% rent Total Affordable 9.5 54% 7.2 51% 6.2 51% 5.9 51% Private Rent 3.6 21% 3.0 22% 2.6 21% 2.5 22% Owner Occupier 4.6 26% 3.9 28% 3.3 28% 0.0 0.0% Total Market 8.2 46% 6.9 39% 5.9 34% 2.5 14%

16 May not sum due to rounding. 70 | P a g e

2018-22 2023-27 2028-32 2033-37 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Total 17.7 N/A 14.1 N/A 12.1 N/A 11.6 N/A These annual averages may be adjusted to the time frame of the Cairngorms National Park LDP using the annualised data contained within the HNDA.

Table 33 Moray Council HNDA Scenario 3 housing need and demand for the Cairngorms HMA covering Cairngorms National Park Plan periods1718 (Source: Moray Council). 2020-24 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Social rent 6.8 45% 5.8 43% 6.1 43% 5.3 46% Below market 1.2 8% 1.1 8% 1.1 8% 0.8 7% rent Total Affordable 7.9 53% 6.9 51% 7.1 51% 6.1 53% Private Rent 3.1 21% 2.9 21% 3.0 22% 2.6 22% Owner Occupier 4.0 26% 3.7 27% 3.9 28% 3.3 28% Total Market 7.1 47% 6.6 44% 6.9 46% 5.9 39% Total 15.0 N/A 13.5 N/A 14.0 N/A 12.0 N/A While the 2018 HNDA suggests a need for 15-14 dwellings across the plan period, 51-53% of these are identified as being affordable. Given the already marginal nature of the market in this part of the National Park, this raises the concern about viability. It is considered that this could be best addressed through the calculation of the housing land requirement, with a supply of 24 dwellings for the first part of the plan period and 21 for the second, being more appropriate, 15 dwellings in total being affordable (representing 1/3 of the supply). This is set out in Table 34.

It is considered that this could be addressed through the calculation of the housing land requirement, with an average annual supply of 3 dwellings being more appropriate, with 1 dwelling (representing 1/3 of the supply) to be delivered as an affordable unit. This would represent a housing land requirement of 15 dwellings over the plan period. This additional margin is greater than the 10% to 20% recommended by Scottish Planning Policy (2014), however when considering Cairngorms HMA’s population, which was estimated to be around 785 in 2014, it is important to recognise the degree of error that can occur with a such a small sample. Therefore, in order to ensure that a generous supply of land for housing is provided, and that this land is viable, it is sensible to consider a greater level of generosity. This level of development remains within the historic completion rate for the area.

17 May not sum due to rounding. 18 2035 estimates based on data calculated for 2036 and 2037 only; remaining years projected from this data. 71 | P a g e

Table 34 Proposed HST required for Moray area of Cairngorms National Park1. 2020-24 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 Tenure No. % No. % No. % No. % Total Affordable 8 33.3% 7 33.3% 7 33.3% 6 33.3% Total Market 16 66.6% 14 66.6% 14 66.6% 12 66.6% Total 24 N/A 21 N/A 21 N/A 18 N/A

Between 2000 and 2017 the completion rate in the Moray part of the National Park was an average of 3 units per year and so the level of development required to meet the target is considered ambitious.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions Underlying trend

Figure 60 Annual completions in the Moray area of the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Moray Council). Table 35 Completions by 5 year period in the Moray area of the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Moray Council).

Local Authority Area 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2017 2000-2017

Number of completions 8 21 14 2 45 Annual average completions 2 4 3 1 3

Perth and Kinross Area Perth and Kinross Council HNDA (2009) was prepared before the extension of the National Park boundary into Perthshire in October 2010. In their analysis of their operational HMAs, the part within the LA within the Cairngorms National Park boundary was identified within the Highland Perthshire HMA.

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Since the publication of the 2009 HNDA, TAYplan have carried out a Joint HNDA that covers its area (TAYplan, 2013). The Joint HNDA covers the Highland Perthshire HMA, although the National Park area of the HMA technically falls outside of the TAYplan area. According to the Census, the HMA was home to an estimated 11,595 people in 2011, while the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park had an estimated 945 (about 8.2% of the NMA’s population). The TayPlan Joint HNDA investigated six scenarios but considered that Scenario 3 (anticipated economic future) and Scenario 4 (better than anticipated economic future) represented the aspirations of the four councils within the TAYplan region and best reflected the stated visions from their Community Plans and Single Outcome Agreements (Table 36). Also of relevance is the level of affordable housing need identified, which according to the Joint HNDA accounts for just over 45% of the Total Requirement.

Table 36 Comparison of TAYplan Joint HNDA Scenarios for Highland Perthshire HMA – annual averages (Source: TAYplan, 2013). 2012-2032 Growth Scenario SR BMR PR OO TR Scenario 3: Anticipated 30 16 34 20 100 Economic Future Scenario 4: Better than 30 16 38 16 100 Anticipated Economic Future

HNDA guidance requires information to be gathered and analysed at a functional HMA level. The number of units within the boundary of the Park is sufficiently low to allow the CNPA to conclude that this part of Highland Perthshire is not a functional HMA in its own right. No firm conclusions relating to housing need within the Perthshire area of National Park can therefore be drawn solely from these HNDAs. Consequently, in this area the CNPA must take into account other available information to provide an indication of the area’s needed land supply.

If the figures presented within Scenario 3 and 4 of TAYplan’s Joint HNDA are disaggregated by the proportion of the HMA’s population living within and outwith the National Park, an estimated annual housing need of 8.2 units is reached (Table 37). It is recognised that the number of units within the National Park is too low for it to be defined as a functional HMA and that this is a crude method of estimating housing need, however it does give a broad starting point for calculating the number of houses the CNPA needs to plan for.

Table 37 Disaggregate of HMA Scenarios for Highland Perthshire HMA Scenarios based on population of Datazone S0100514719 - annual averages. 2012-2032 Growth Scenario SR BMR PR OO TR Scenario 3: Anticipated 2.5 1.3 2.8 1.6 8.2 Economic Future Scenario 4: Better than 2.5 1.3 3.1 1.3 8.2 Anticipated Economic Future

19 This datazone roughly corresponds with the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park.

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This annual figure would represent a significant increase in the average annual completion rate, which for the period 2000-2017 stands at 2 units per year (Figure 61 and Table 38).

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions Underlying trend

Figure 61 Annual completions in the Perth and Kinross area of the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Perth and Kinross Council). Table 38 Completions by 5 year period in the Perth and Kinross area of the Cairngorms National Park (Source: Perth and Kinross Council). 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2017 2000-2017 Number of completions 16 11 6 2 35 Annual average completions 3 2 1 1 2.1

As highlighted earlier in the paper, this method of disaggregating the HMA’s need is problematic, since it is not the headline population that generates a policy response, but the rate and scale at which change occurs. We may therefore once again turn to National Records of Scotland’s one-off research project to produce population and household projections for sub-council areas (National Records of Scotland, 2016). Due to its very small population the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park falls within a broader statistical area that covers much of rural Perthshire, including towns such as Pitlochry and Aberfeldy (Table 39 and Table 40).

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Table 39 Projected population change for North Perthshire 1 sub-council area (Source: NRS, 2016). % of North North Perthshire North Perthshire Datazone North Perthshire Perthshire 1 1 1 S01005147 1 2012 population Projected Mid-year Mid-year Projected in Datazone Population Estimate 2012 Estimate 2012 Population 2026 S01005147 Change 10,249 926 9.0% 10,831 5.7%

Table 40 Projected household change for North Perthshire 1 sub-council area (Source: NRS, 2016). Estimate Assumed Assumed Projected Projected Households Household Size Household Size Household Households 2026 2012 2012 2026 Change 4,631 2.21 5,030 2.15 8.6%

The level of population growth projected for North Perthshire 1 is considerably higher than that experienced by the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park over recent years, with mid-year population estimates suggesting that between 2001 and 2017 the population of the area remained broadly stable with no statistically significant change over the period (an estimated net decrease of 9 persons, or -1%) (Figure 62). There has also been year to year variability population growth and decline so it is difficult to tell what the long term trend for the area is likely to be.

The rate of growth in the number of households has also historically been lower, with numbers growing by around 3.1% between 2008 and 2017 (Figure 63). Over the same period average household sizes appear to have remained broadly level, remaining around 2.2 to 2.3 persons per household20.

1000

950

900

850

800 Persons 750

700

650

600 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 62 Mid-year estimates of the total population of the Perth and Kinross area of the Cairngorms National Park (Data zone S01005147/ S01011981) 2001-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

20 Calculated as the ratio between mid-year population estimates (Figure 62) and annual estimates of occupied dwellings (Figure 63). 75 | P a g e

600

500

400

300

200 Number of dwellings 100

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 63 Changes in household occupation in the Perth and Kinross area of the Cairngorms National Park (Data zone S01005147 / S01011981) 2008-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The overall growth in North Perthshire 1 is likely to be heavily influenced by population and household change within its largest settlement, namely Pitlochry, which lies outwith the National Park and whose population grew by around 18.7% between 2001 and 2017. Though less dramatic, Aberfeldy, which is also located outwith the National Park, also experienced a greater level of growth (around 6.2%) (Figure 64, Figure 65 and Figure 66). It should be noted that both of these settlements also fall within the Highland Perthshire HMA and therefore, assuming growth is projected reflect past trends, then they are going to require a higher proportion of the 100 dwellings per annum outlined in Table 36 than would be available should the split be based on a simple snapshot of the most recent Mid-Year population estimate, as outlined in Table 37.

2600 2400 2200

2000 1800

Persons 1600 1400 1200 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pitlochry Aberfeldy

Figure 64 Mid-year estimates of the total population of Pitlochry and Aberfeldy, 2001-2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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960 1300 940 1250

920 1200 900 880 1150 860 1100 840 1050 820

Number of dwellings Number of dwellings 1000 800 780 950 760 900 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied Second Homes Vacant Occupied Second Homes Vacant

Figure 65 Changes in household occupation in Aberfeldy Figure 66 Changes in household occupation in Pitlochry 2008-2017. 2008-2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot Given what we know about the nature of population and household change in the North Perthshire area it is considered best to adopt a low growth scenario for housing provision in this part of the National Park. Taking account of the estimated population change in this area (Figure 62) and the overall principal population projection for the National Park itself (Figure 14), an assumed population increase of 1% between 2012 and 2037 is not unreasonable.

Under this scenario the projected fall in average household size is the greatest driver for household change. Working on the assumptions of NRS’ principal projection, the average household size across the National Park is projected to fall from 2.15 in 2012 (the base date for NRS’ projections) to 2.02 in 2025, which represents the likely end of the next LDP’s lifespan, and 1.95 by 2037, which represents the end of the projection period. While calculations of household size based on mid-year estimates and indicate a higher average household size in 2017, it is considered best to use NRS’ estimated and projected household size, since these are derived from a larger sample population and are therefore likely to be more robust. Furthermore, it is worth noting that it is not the headline figures that are important, but the rate and scale of change and this is provided by the NRS projections. 41provides an outline of these calculations.

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Table 41 Projected change in households in the Perth & Kinross area of the National Park when applying NRS’ (2014) assumptions on average household sizes. 2012 Mid- 2012 Projected Projected Projected Additional Average Total 2020- year Occupied population population households households annual 2025 estimate dwellings 2025 2037 2025 2025 dwellings 926 416 932 935 461.4 45.4 3.2 16

On the basis of these estimates we may also consider the scenarios for Housing need identified for the Highland Perthshire HMA by the TAYPlan Joint HNDA (2013). Again, it should be noted that this is a blunt means of assessing need and demand within the area and therefore further investigation is necessary.

Table 42 Application Table 37’s estimates to TAYplan Joint HNDA Scenarios for Highland Perthshire HMA – Total Requirement for 5 year period.

5 year period Growth Scenario SR BMR PR OO TR Scenario 3: Anticipated 4.8 2.6 5.4 3.2 16 Economic Future Scenario 4: Better than 4.8 2.6 6.1 2.6 16 Anticipated Economic Future

The rate of development required to meet this level of need is also more closely aligned with historic completion rates, which over the fifteen year has been at around two dwellings per year (Table 38).

One means of testing whether or not the estimates in

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Table 41 and Table 42 are realistic is to compare them against the council house waiting list maintained by Perth & Kinross Council. This information is available on a HMA and settlement basis (

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Table 43). It should be noted that the information in Table 43 counts only those applicants with a need for rehousing and applicants are counted on the basis of their first area of choice only. This means that there is no double counting where applicants have listed a number of areas for rehousing. The data does identify a need for affordable housing within the National Park area ; furthermore it identifies the need to a large proportion of 2 bedroom units.

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Table 43 Total CHR Applications by Apartment Size (Mainstream and Sheltered) in Highland Perthshire HMA at 2017/2018 (Source: Perth & Kinross Council). Area Need 1apt 2apt 3apt 4apt 5apt Total

Homeless 2 1 9 0 0 12 Strategic 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transfer 1 18 11 5 1 36 Applicants 6 44 34 10 3 94 Aberfeldy, Dull, Weem Lets 1 6 9 1 0 17 Homeless 0 0 1 0 0 1 Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 0 7 2 0 0 9 Applicants 0 13 6 3 0 22 Acharn Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0

Homeless 0 0 2 0 0 2 Strategic 0 1 2 0 0 3 Transfer 0 12 10 3 0 25 Applicants 0 28 26 6 0 60 Ballinluig Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0

/ Homeless 0 0 3 0 0 3 Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 0 1 7 2 0 19 Applicants 0 28 21 8 0 57 Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0 Killiecrankie BlairAtholl Homeless 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strategic 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transfer 3 0 0 0 0 0 Applicants 2 0 0 0 0 0

Bobbin Bobbin Mill Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0 Homeless 3 4 3 1 0 11

Strategic 0 1 3 1 0 5 Transfer 3 16 20 10 0 49 Applicants 7 60 53 11 0 131 Birnam

Dunkeld Dunkeld & Lets 0 1 0 0 0 4 Homeless 0 0 1 0 0 1

Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 0 7 5 0 0 12 Applicants 0 12 2 3 0 17 Fearnan Lets 0 1 0 0 0 1

Homeless 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strategic 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transfer 0 0 2 0 0 2 Applicants 0 0 5 0 0 5 Glenlyon Lets 0 1 0 0 1

Homeless 0 0 4 0 0 4 Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 0 0 5 1 0 6 Applicants 0 0 18 4 0 22

Grandtully Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0

Homeless 0 0 2 0 0 2 Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 0 8 6 2 1 17 Applicants 0 19 11 3 3 36 Kenmore Lets 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 | P a g e

Area Need 1apt 2apt 3apt 4apt 5apt Total

Homeless 0 0 1 0 0 1 Strategic 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transfer 0 7 3 1 0 11 Applicants 0 11 8 5 0 24 Kinloch Rannoch Lets 0 1 1 1 0 3

Homeless 0 0 2 0 0 2 Strategic 0 1 1 0 0 2 Transfer 0 8 6 2 0 16 Applicants 0 15 18 4 0 37 Logierait Lets 0 1 0 1 0 2

Homeless 3 3 3 1 0 10 Strategic 0 0 1 0 0 1 Transfer 2 21 22 8 0 53 Applicants 8 64 53 14 0 139 Pitlochry Lets 0 16 6 0 0 22 Homeless 8 8 31 2 0 49

Strategic 0 3 12 1 0 16 Transfer 9 105 99 34 2 255

Total Applicants 23 294 255 71 6 644 Lets 1 26 17 3 0 50

Another factor that needs to be taken into account is the level of ineffective Stock within the area and in particular the level of second home ownership. According to the most recent estimates (2017), ineffective stock accounted for around 21% of all dwellings within the Perth & Kinross area of the National Park, with second homes accounting for 13% of all dwellings (see Figure 63). Since 2008 this level has varied slightly from year to year, with an annual average of around 16%.

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Angus Area Angus Council HNDA (2010) places the area of Angus within the Cairngorms National Park within the West Angus and Strathmore & Glens 7 HMAs. The HMAs includes the settlements of Forfar, Kirriemuir and Letham and stretches north to include the Angus Glens (Glen Esk, Glen 1 Clova, Glen Prosen and Glen Isla). There are only 33 dwellings (Figure 67) in the Angus area of the National Park, which led the Council’s housing market analysis to conclude that purchasers from the Cairngorms National Park have no influence 31 on the operation of any HMA in Angus, and therefore excluded this area from consideration in the assessment of housing need and demand. Occupied Vacant Second Homes Since the publication of the 2010 HNDA, TAYplan have carried out a Joint HNDA that Figure 67 Occupancy of dwellings within the Angus part of the Cairngorms National Park covers its area (TAYplan, 2013). The Joint HNDA September 2018 (source: Angus Council). covers the West Angus and Strathmore & Glens HMAs, although the National Park area of the HMAs technically falls outside of the TAYplan area. The Joint HNDA does not draw any conclusions about the National Park.

No conclusions relating to the National Park can be drawn from these HNDAs, therefore in this area the CNPA must take into account any other information available to provide the needed land supply. Given the extremely small size of the population and the number of households within the area however, it is clear that a quantitative analysis of need is not possible. Given the area’s relative geographical isolation to the rest of the National Park, it is also clear that this population is unlikely to generate any demonstrable need that needs to be met at a strategic level; indeed the area has seen only two new dwellings completed since 2000 (see Table 13). Therefore, a policy based approach to housing provision is thought to be the most robust option within the area, with no overall level of housing set and applications considered on a case by case basis. Under such circumstances the onus would be on the applicant to demonstrate need, just as would be the case in any other out of settlement locations within the National Park.

Dealing with the shortfall The examination of Stirling Council’s LDP 2 commenced on 24 March 2017 with the Report of Examination published on 24 November 2017. During the examination a great deal of discussion was had around the methodology used to calculate the HST. Objectors to the Council’s methodology argued that it failed to take account of a shortfall in housing delivery that had occurred in the years 2010-2015. There was also some discussion about how this shortfall should be calculated, with some objectors arguing that it should be based on the

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contents of the HNDA, which was published in 2011, and others the Housing Land Requirement in the previous LDP. The Council took an opposing view, arguing that there was no technical requirement to incorporate the shortfall, however it was calculated, in the new HST.

The Reporter concluded that the appropriate HST for the new LDP should be based on the HNDA, incorporating the shortfall from the period 2010 to 2015 (page 52 of the Stirling Council LDP 2 Examination Report). This decision has implications for the way the CNPA calculates its HST, since a shortfall was not included in the HST presented in the MIR.

In determining what the shortfall might be, like the Stirling Council example, the CNPA considers the best approach is to use the HNDAs that cover the National Park area. Using the HST from the current LDP (2015) is not considered appropriate as, since then, new HNDAs have been produced covering the Aberdeenshire (2017), Highland (2015) and Moray (2018) parts of the National Park. All of these HNDAs suggest that the housing market in these areas has undergone changes since the HST for the current LDP was calculated.

Because five different HNDAs cover the National Park’s area, each published at different times, careful consideration needs to be given to how the shortfall might be calculated. This calculation is particularly problematic in the parts of the National Park that are within HMAs that largely sit outwith its boundary. The proposed approach is as follows:

 Aberdeenshire City and shire HNDA was published in November 2017 and its findings can be disaggregated to the area of the County within the National Park and adjusted to meet the timeframes of the CNPA LDP timetable (see Table 24). As described earlier in this report, the MIR’s HST needs to be adjusted to reflect this and therefore any shortfall will be calculated according to the need and demand calculated for the 2015-2019 period outlined in Table 24.

 Moray Council HNDA was published in April 2018. By definition, any shortfall from previous years will have been built into the new estimates of housing need and demand. However, the estimates of need and demand are annualised beginning in 2018, which means that need and demand for years 2015 to 2017 are not. However, it is unlikely that the need and demand is significantly different to the 17.7 identified for years 2018 – 22 (see Table 33) and for want of a more compelling figure it is deemed appropriate to consider this, rounded to 18 (8 market / 10 affordable) as the figure by which any shortfall can be calculated. This however, needs to be considered against the viability concerns expressed about the area and the resulting adjustment to the HST and that the shortfall should not be applied on top of the additional market housing allowed for.

 Highland Council HNDA was published in 2015. The HST within the MIR was based on the second five year period set out within the HNDA and assumes that the whole

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requirement for the 2015-2019 period is met within that five years. Evidence on completions from 2015-2017 suggests that delivery is likely to fall short in this period and therefore, an estimate of this shortfall needs to be carried forward into the new HST.

 The Perth and Kinross area of the National Park is technically covered by the TayPlan HNDA (2013), though it does not form part of the TayPlan area. Calculating the HST in this area, and consequently any potential shortfall, is complicated by the fact that the area sits within the much larger Highland Perthshire HMA, which includes towns outwith the National Park such as Pitlochry and Aberfeldy. The HST calculated for the MIR is 16 dwellings (7 of which are affordable) for each five year period of the Plan. This is similar to the current LDP’s (2015) HST, which is also 16 units, though all of these are identified as affordable. It is considered that therefore that the HST should be calculated on the basis of the delivery of 16 units.

 Due to local factors the Angus area of the National Park does not have a HST. The reasons for this are explained elsewhere in this report. It is not therefore possible to calculate a shortfall as it is not possible for a shortfall to exist. No adjustments are therefore necessary in this area.

Based on the evidence presented within the HNDAs and past and projected completion rates, Table 44 presents the estimated shortfall that will need to be taken account of in the plan period 2020-2024. This is based on completion data for 2015-2017 and will need to be updated as the Plan progresses to adoption.

Table 44 Estimated shortfall in housing delivery 2015-2019 Housing Supply Projected Projected Local Authority Target Completions Shortfall Area 2015-2019 2015- 2019 2015-2019 Aberdeenshire 61 58 3 Angus 0 0 0 Highland 306 275 31 Moray 18 5 13 Perth & Kinross 16 5 11 CNPA Total 401 343 58

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Specialist Provision

Gypsy / Travellers The term 'Gypsy / Travellers' refers to distinct groups – such as Roma, Romany Gypsies, Scottish and Irish Travellers – who consider the travelling lifestyle part of their ethnic identity.

According to the 2011 census there were 113 Gypsy / Travellers living in the Cairngorms National Park. Of these just over 75% were in Badenoch and Strathspey (Figure 68). While the Census is the most comprehensive source of demographic information on Gypsy / Travellers, there are certain caveats that need to be underlined when using it to estimate the Gypsy / Traveller population. For example, the transient roadside population is unlikely to be picked up while those who are resident on a full time basis in the National Park may be reluctant to self-identify as Gypsy / Travellers due to fears around issues of discrimination and harassment. Furthermore, the historical twice yearly count of Gypsy / Travellers indicates that the population on Council run sites and encampments has typically been 30-40% lower in the winter; the census was carried out on the 27th March, which is before the travelling season begins in April. The Census is therefore likely to be an underestimate of the population present within the National Park, particularly during the summer months.

100 90

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Number of Gypsy Number/ ofTravellers Gypsy 10 0 Aberdeenshire Highland Moray Perth & Kinross

Figure 68 Gypsy / Travellers in the Cairngorms National Park by Local Authority area according to the 2011(Source: Census table KS201SC). In 2014 Craigforth consultants published a study on the accommodation needs of Gypsy / Travellers in the Highland Council area. The study estimated the area’s Gypsy / Traveller population using a combination of census data and fieldwork data and management records to make allowances for the encamped population during the study period. These estimates assumed that the census figures for highland primarily represented the more settled Gypsy / Traveller population and include only a small proportion of the encampment population.

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Specifically, the study assumed that 90% of the encampment population recording during this study period is additional to Census figures.

The National Park has one permanent Gypsy / Traveller site, which is located in Newtonmore and run by the Highland Council. The site was originally established as seasonal provision but moved to permanent year-round provision from late 2011. It has 7 pitches, each of which has a dedicated amenity block which are located in a central block alongside the site office.

According to the Highland Council there has not been a high demand for pitches and normally only 4 are taken up at any one time. The pitches have been primarily occupied by members of the same extended family. Other pitches are typically occupied on a shorter- term basis by families traveling in the area, with a turnover rate of about 50-60% for the site as a whole (Table 45). Occupation is usually in the summer months with pitches left unoccupied during the winter. In 2014 rent on the site was £62 / £63 per week, which is lower than the Highland average of £72.

Table 45 Turnover of Newtonmore Site (Source: Criagforth, 2014). Total Occupied Vacancies Arising Lets made Avg Avg Site at time of Annual Annual Capacity study 13/14 12/13 11/12 13/14 12/13 11/12 Voids Lets

7 6 (86%) 3 1 8 1 0 8 4 (57%) 3 (43%)

Craigforth (2014) surveyed occupants of the site on the quality of its provision. Dissatisfaction was raised with the distance of pitches to chalet blocks, the condition of chalets with significant mould / damp problems and that the chalets were not suitable for year round use and the condition of pitch surfaces. A lack of pitches was not however identified and at the time of survey there were no households waiting to be accommodated on the site. Residents felt that top investment priorities for the site should be the installation of a dedicated amenity block at each pitch, the installation of road warning signs and / or extension of the 30 mph zone, the replacement of the play park and the installation of lockable fences / gates to individual pitches.

According to the Highland Council instances of unauthorised encampments over the last five years in Badenoch and Strathspey have been low, with only 20 reported incidents over this period. Encampments usually occurred on the same spots with sites at Kingussie, Grantown-on-Spey and Dava being the most frequented.

Craigforth (2014) estimated that there was a need to accommodate 50 - 65 Gypsy / Traveller households in the Highland Area over the period of 2014-2019. They concluded however that the need for provision in Badenoch and Strathspey would remain broadly similar to historic levels and that there was capacity within the 7 pitches of Newtonmore to meet this. There is therefore no need to provide additional land within Badenoch and

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Strathspey at this time and the Highland HNDA does not identify any further need for land in future time periods.

In other parts of the National Park the estimated number of Gypsey / Travellers is much lower and identifying need at a local area more difficult.

Aberdeenshire Council has a Gypsy / Traveller Site Provision Strategy, published in 2015. For the purpose of this Strategy the area of Aberdeenshire in the Cairngorms National Park is included within the broader Marr area. According to the Strategy, the area has seen very low rates of unauthorised encampment, with only 7 reported between 2009 and 2013.

The Strategy aims to provide additional sites across Aberdeenshire to help meet the increasing demand for accommodation within the local authority’s area. In addition to the existing provision the objective is to identify at least one area of land in each of the Strategy’s areas, including Marr. While no new sites have been provided as yet within the Marr area, the forthcoming Aberdeenshire LDP, which was adopted in April 2017, contains allocations for sites in the Formartine, Garioch and Kincardine and Mearns areas. Furthermore, the LDP contains a permissive policy towards dealing with windfall sites.

The nearest Council run site to the Perth and Kinross part of the National Park is at Bobbin Mill, which is a short distance away from Pitlochry town centre in a private woodland area. Bobbin Mill has been in existence since 1947 and was set up as a Gypsy / Traveller housing project by the Scottish Office (Department of Health) and the Church of Scotland. The land was leased to the then County Council for a term of 99 years by Cluniemore Estates (now Pitlochry Estates). At that time the provision consisted of a former Army Training Cadet hut, which was converted to provide 4 one bedroomed apartments with a cold water supply, a fire and sink and toilet facilities.

In September 2010, six three bedroomed chalet accommodation was provided for the residents. This was undertaken in conjunction with Pitlochry Estates and funding was accessed from the Scottish Government. The same family has lived on this site for many years which is very settled and fits well into the community structure. Any housing management issues are covered by the local Area Housing Office just a short distance away.

Perth & Kinross Council has undertaken research projects (in 2003, 2007 and 2011) with input from the Gypsy / Traveller communities to help define their accommodation needs. The research has highlighted a lack of quality, and lack of access and provision of, private sites plus the loss of some private sites to Gypsies / Travellers as landowners moved toward higher density migrant worker encampments or holiday accommodation. It evidenced a lack of sites and facilities for seasonal travelling and temporary encampments in a range of locations across Perth and Kinross.

The 2011 Census estimates a population of 4 Gypsy / Travellers in the Moray area of the National Park. Even if this is assumed to be an underestimate, which it is likely to be, it is unlikely that there is a statistically significant population within this part of the National Park. 88 | P a g e

Owing to the area’s peripheral geography it is also unlikely that the area receives a large transient roadside population.

Given that the low numbers of Gypsy / Travellers estimated by the 2011 Census to be living in the Aberdeenshire, Perth and Kinross and Moray areas of the National Park and the ambitions of Aberdeenshire and Perth and Kinross Council to provide additional sites, there is no evidence to suggest that a site, either permanent or temporary, needs to be provided within these areas. In Badenoch and Strathspey the Council site in Newtonmore is able to accommodate the current and projected number of Gypsy / Travellers households in the that area of the National Park. In conclusion it is considered that a policy approach would therefore best serve any need that arises over the Plan period.

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Conclusions: Housing Need The Cairngorms National Park is only covered by two HMAs that may be regarded as contiguous with its boundary, namely Badenoch and Strathspey HMA in Highland and Cairngorms Local HMA in Moray. Two other HMAs, namely Aberdeenshire’s Rural HMA and TAYplan’s Highland HMA include areas of the National Park, but as functional areas are mostly located outwith the National Park’s boundary. Finally, while the area of Angus Council within the National Park is included in TAYplan’s West Angus and Strathmore & Glens HMAs, it excluded from any part of the analysis of housing need and demand in that area. It should be noted that despite no housing need being identified in the Angus area of the National Park, this does not itself preclude future development from occurring. Instead proposals would need to be considered on a case by case basis and determined in accordance with the policies of the Local Development Plan.

On the basis of the information available to the CNPA and discussed in this paper, Table 46 shows the LDP’s housing supply targets, while Table 47 shows the housing land requirement.

Table 46 Housing Supply Target 2030-2039 2020-2024 2025-2029 Local Authority (indicative target) Area Afford Afford Afford Market able Total Market able Total Market able Total Aberdeenshire 30 30 60 26 23 49 47 38 85 Angus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Highland 154 178 332 118 100 218 236 200 436

Moray 18 10 28 14 7 21 22 13 35

Perth & Kinross 15 12 27 9 7 16 18 14 32

CNPA Total 218 229 447 167 137 304 323 265 588

Table 47 Housing Land Requirement Local Authority 2030-2039 (indicative 2020-2024 2025-2029 Area target)

Aberdeenshire 66 54 94 Angus 0 0 0

Highland 365 240 480

Moray 41 23 39

Perth & Kinross 30 18 35

CNPA Total 502 334 647

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3.5 Rationale for Housing Land Requirement Paragraph 116 of SPP (2014) states: “Within the overall housing supply target, plans should indicate the number of new homes to be built over the plan period. This figure should be increased by a margin of 10 to 20% to establish the housing land requirement, in order to ensure that a generous supply of land for housing is provided. The exact extent of the margin will depend on local circumstances, but a robust explanation for it should be provided in the plan.”

The approach of the Proposed Plan is to apply the lower end of this range with a 10% allowance for generosity. This is because much of the land in the Cairngorms National Park is of European or National importance for nature conservation. This limits the amount of land that is appropriate for development. Taking account of the overall aims of the National Park, it is the CNPA’s position that these local circumstances merit the lower percentage.

Options for different levels of generosity were explored for the current LDP (2015) and discussed during its examination; these were:

 25% in Badenoch and Strathspey HMA,  20% in Moray HMA and  0% in the Aberdeenshire, Angus and Perth & Kinross parts of the National Park. In these instances the Reporter (see p.45 of Examination Report) did not consider the higher levels to be appropriate for a National Park, where its collective aims must be taken into account. It was the Reporter’s view that when the collective aims of the National Park, the LDP vision and spatial strategy for the park and the historic rate of housing completions were taken into account, that any margin to be added to the HST should be at the lower end of the scale. They therefore recommended that a margin of 10% be applied to the HST in all constituent planning authority areas in the National Park.

The collective aims of the National Park and the LDP vision remain the same while the spatial strategy has only been modified slightly. The rate of completions has dropped slightly since the examination. It is therefore the opinion of the CNPA that the situation remains broadly the same and therefore the reporter’s recommendation supports the MIR’s preferred option to set the generosity at 10% for the whole HST. It should however be noted that because the Angus part of the National Park does not have a HST, there is nothing to apply the generosity to in that circumstance. The reasons for there being no HST here are discussed earlier in this report.

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3.6 Affordable Housing Provision Based on the analysis of housing need and demand outlined in Section 4.4 the number of affordable houses required over the plan period of 2020-2029 is 366 (see Table 46), which rises to 403 if the 10% generosity is applied to give the Housing Land Requirement. This represents 49% of all dwellings (Table 48).

Table 48 Proportional split between market and affordable housing according to LDP’s proposed Housing Supply Target (see Table 46)

Local Authority 2020-2024 2025-2029 Overall 2020-2029 Area Market Affordable Market Affordable Market Affordable Aberdeenshire 50.0% 50.0% 53.1% 46.9% 51.4% 48.6%

Highland 46.4% 53.6% 54.1% 45.9% 49.5% 50.5%

Moray 64.3% 35.7% 66.7% 33.3% 65.3% 34.7% Perth & Kinross 55.6% 44.4% 56.3% 43.8% 55.8% 44.2%

CNPA Total 48.8% 51.2% 54.9% 45.1% 51.3% 48.7%

According to paragraph 129 of SPP, the level of affordable housing required as a contribution within a market site should generally be no more than 25% of the total number of houses. The key word within this paragraph is ‘generally, which does not set an absolute limit on the affordable housing contribution to be provided. Paragraph 14 of PAN 2/2010 states that 25% is a benchmark figure and that this benchmark does not apply if a different percentage is required locally. This must be justified by the HNDA and identified in the Local Housing Strategy (LHS) and LDP. Therefore if the LDP is to meet its aim of delivering 403 affordable houses it needs to be justified to the satisfaction of these national policy requirements.

The aim of the LDP is not to provide a blanket level of affordable housing for the whole National Park. However, the LDP does aim to support National Park Partnership Plan Policy 3.1 and Priority 7, which aim at:

 identifying sites in the Local Development Plan where the affordable housing contribution will be more than the normal national maximum of 25% because of acute affordability pressures and the shortage of supply; and  targeting public sector funding towards the National Park and to sites with the greatest potential for delivering affordable housing.

The National Park Partnership Plan was agreed by the Scottish Government and adopted in 2017.

The evidence base for the Housing Supply target and the level of affordable housing is well set out within Section 3.4, which outlines the findings of the HNDAs. This is supported by the evidence set out within Section 3.3 and in particular the section on House Prices 92 | P a g e

and Affordability (page 28). This section will therefore summarise the rationale behind identifying the areas which, according to Policy 1.5 of the Proposed Plan, will contribute towards meeting this higher requirement of affordable housing (Figure 69). This policy is outlined spatially in Figure 70, which is also included within the Proposed Plan.

Figure 69 Policy 1.5 of the Proposed Plan. 1.5 Affordable housing Developments consisting of four or more dwellings should include provision for affordable housing amounting to: a) 45% of the total number of dwellings on the development site in the settlements of Aviemore, Ballater, Blair Atholl and Braemar b) 25% of the total number of dwellings on the development site in all other settlements Proposals for fewer than four market dwellings will also be required to make a contribution towards affordable housing. This will be a monetary payment towards meeting housing need in the local community. Developers seeking to negotiate a reduction in affordable housing provision must demonstrate through a Viability Assessment that the requirements make an otherwise commercially viable proposal unviable.

Figure 70 Areas where the affordable housing contributions on all sites of four units or more will be 45%. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. 93 | P a g e

Aviemore

In the areas in which the increased contributions are proposed, only Aviemore sits within a HMA that is contiguous with the National Park’s boundary, namely Badenoch and Strathspey. Ballater and Braemar sit within the wider Rural Aberdeenshire HMA while Blair Atholl sits within the wider Highland Perthshire HMA.

The justification for Aviemore comes from the fact that it is a particularly sought after location for both residents and those seeking second or holiday homes. While Aviemore does not have the highest proportion of second homes it does have the highest number, with approximately 230 second homes and self-catering holiday homes. It is also the largest settlement with the most services and the most proposed development in the Proposed Plan (see Table 55). Therefore, in order to have the greatest impact on affordability within the HMA, it is considered to be the best location to apply a higher affordable housing requirement. This approach is also in line the Highland Council’s Strategic Housing Investment Plan, in which Aviemore is the highest priority for affordable housing within the Badenoch and Strathspey HMA. The policy therefore is most likely to be achievable within Badenoch and Strathspey if this is the approach taken.

Ballater and Braemar The requirement of 45% for Ballater and Braemar is mostly based on the Aberdeen City and Shire HNDA’s (2017) estimated need for an affordable housing requirement in the region of 50-54% within the Rural Aberdeenshire HMA. While it could be argued therefore that the requirement needs to be higher, concern is raised about the viability of delivering housing with an affordable housing requirement in excess of 50%.

Data on council housing applications within the HMA suggest that there is in fact significant demand for accommodation within both settlements (see Table 30). In Ballater on the 31st March 2018 there were 61 first choice applications against a current stock of 96 which yielded just 11 relets. In Braemar there were 18 first choice applications against a current stock of 26 which yielded just one relet. Across the whole National Park area there were a total of 84 applications against 126 properties and just 12 relets. The figures in this paragraph do not account for all other choices and therefore the actual need is greater than this.

House prices in the area have generally been high and while the 2017 median house price for Ballater was lower than the National Park average (£197,375), it is notable that this is the exception rather than the rule, with median prices in at least one of the settlement’s data zones being above the National Park’s median in 19 out of the last 25 years (Figure 71). In fact if you include its rural hinterland, in which no development is proposed and therefore, development in Ballater is to meet the needs of, there is not a single year in which local median house prices fall below the National Park’s median. Furthermore, this area has experienced the highest median house price in the National Park for 12 out of the last 25. Combined, in 22 of those years, median house prices within at least one of Ballater

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and its hinterland’s data zones were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park.

Braemar has for most years had a median house price in excess of Ballater’s; indeed it has been in excess of the CNP median in 21 out of the last 25 years. Furthermore, in 14 of those years, median house prices in Braemar were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park. Since 2011 it has also experienced the highest median house price 3 times, which is more than any other single data zone within the National Park.

It is also worth noting that median house prices in both settlements and the CNP area as a whole are significantly in excess of those of Scotland as a whole, which for 2017 was £152,355.

£350,000

£300,000

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000

£50,000

£0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ballater Braemar CNP Scotland

Figure 71 Annual median house prices for Ballater and Braemar, the Cairngorms National Park as a whole and Scotland (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Lower quartile prices have also generally been high. In Ballater and its hinterland the lower quartile price in at least one of the data zones has been higher than the National Park’s in every year of the last 25 years (Figure 72). Furthermore, in 24 of those years, median house prices within at least one of Ballater’s data zones were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park. The area has also seen the highest lower quartile prices for 11 years out of the last 25.

In Braemar the lower quartile price has also been consistently higher that the National Park’s, with prices in excess in 17 of the last 25. Furthermore, in 12 of those years, median house prices in Braemar were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park.

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It is also worth noting that lower quartile prices in both settlements and CNP area as a whole are significantly in excess of those of Scotland as a whole, which for 2017 was £98,000.

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000

£50,000

£0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ballater Braemar CNP Scotland

Figure 72 Annual lower quartile house prices for Ballater and Braemar, the Cairngorms National Park as a whole and Scotland (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The estimated median gross annual income for the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park is around £31,000, although it is likely to be lower in Ballater, with median gross incomes around £26,000 to £31,000. Taking the £31,000 figure, this gives a house price / income ratio of around 7. Even taking into account a deposit requirement of 10%, this is well above the theoretical maximum 3.5 loan to income ratio most lenders generally start from when considering mortgage applications. The maximum loan such a ratio would allow would be £108,500 , which with a minimum deposit of 10% would, allow for the purchase of a property with a value of no more than £119,500. In 2017, this would mean that those on a median income would be excluded from the vast majority of properties in the area.

Compounding affordability issues and the availability of housing in general is the fact that the area suffers from some of the highest levels of second home ownership and ineffective stock in the National Park (see Table 15), with around 22% of all dwellings falling within the ineffective category and 15% being used as second home in 2017. There is local variation Braemar demonstrating particularity high levels of second home ownership at 22% (Table 49).

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Table 49 Ineffective stock levels in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Occupied 79.7% 79.1% 78.9% 78.4% 77.8% 78.1% 80.7% 74.6% 75.6% 77.8%

Second Homes 14.7% 15.1% 15.0% 14.9% 14.9% 13.9% 13.3% 14.2% 13.3% 15.2%

Vacant 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.7% 7.2% 8.0% 6.0% 11.1% 11.1% 6.9% Ineffective 20.2% 20.9% 20.9% 21.6% 22.1% 21.9% 19.4% 25.4% 24.4% 22.1%

There is evidence that the settlements have suffered from the lack of affordable housing and indeed the availability of housing in general in recent years, with the whole Aberdeenshire population of the National Park seeing a net fall by around 2% since 2001. Mid-year estimates from 2001 to 2017 suggest that the area has struggled to maintain its population (Figure 73) and furthermore, that this population is aging (Figure 74 and Figure 75). During this time the proportion of children under 16 and the proportion of working age people fell by around 21% and 5% respectively while the pensionable age population rose by around 18% (Table 50).

3300

3250

3200

3150 Persons 3100

3050

3000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 73 Mid-year estimates of total population for the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

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90 And Over 90 And Over 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 Age cohort 35-39 Age cohort 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 Persons Persons Female Male Female Male

Figure 74 Estimated population profile by age and sex in Figure 75 Estimated population profile by age and sex in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2001. the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot Table 50 Components of population change in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2001- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 2001 2017 Change Cohort No. % No. % No. % Children (under 495 15.8% 392 12.8% -103 -20.8% 16) Working Age 1,896 60.6% 1,806 58.8% -90 -4.7% (16 - 64) Pensionable Age 739 23.6% 872 28.4% 133 +18.0% (65 and over) Total Population 3,130 N/A 3,070 N/A -60 -1.9%

Blair Atholl The main sources of information for Blair Atholl and the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park is the TayPlan Joint HNDA and the housing waiting list for the Blair Atholl area. According to the HNDA there is a requirement for just over 45% affordable housing in the Highland Perthshire HMA. The Perth and Kinross part of the National Park only represents a small part of this HMA and does not form a functional HMA in its own right. However, data on council housing applications within the HMA suggest that there is in fact significant demand for accommodation within the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park, with the year 2015 / 2016 seeing 15 first choice applications against just 3 lets (see 98 | P a g e

Table 43). There is a strong social and economic argument for ensuring such accommodation is provided within this area, particularly given the importance of employers such as the House of Bruar, which has an ambition to grow and expand.

House prices in the area have generally been high and while the 2017 median house price was lower than the National Park average (£197,375), it is notable that this is the exception rather than the rule, with local median prices being above the CNPA median in 17 out of the last 25 years (Figure 76). Furthermore, in 11 of those years, median house prices within the Perth and Kinross area were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park. It is also worth noting that median house prices in both the Perth and Kinross area and CNP area as a whole are significantly in excess of those of Scotland as a whole, which for 2017 was £152,355.

£300,000

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000

£50,000

£0

Perth & Kinross Area CNP Scotland

Figure 76 Annual median house prices for Perth and Kinross area of National Park, the Cairngorms National Park as a whole and Scotland (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Lower quartile prices have also generally been high and while the 2017 lower quartile house price was also lower than the National Park average (£150,400), it is notable that this is the it is frequently above this figure, with local lower quartile prices being above the CNPA median in 13 out of the last 25 years (Figure 77).Furthermore, in 10 of those years, median house prices within the Perth and Kinross area were ranked within the top 5 data zones in the National Park. It is also worth noting that lower quartile prices in both the Perth and Kinross area and CNP area as a whole are significantly in excess of those of Scotland as a whole, which for 2017 was £98,000.

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£200,000 £180,000 £160,000 £140,000 £120,000 £100,000 £80,000 £60,000 £40,000 £20,000 £0

Perth & Kinross area CNP Scotland

Figure 77 Annual lower quartile house prices for Perth and Kinross area of National Park, the Cairngorms National Park as a whole and Scotland (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). The locality’s estimated median gross annual income is around £37,000, which gives a house price / income ratio of around 6. Even taking into account a deposit requirement of 10%, this is well above the theoretical maximum 3.5 loan to income ratio most lenders generally start from when considering mortgage applications. The maximum loan such a ratio would allow would be £129,500, which with a minimum deposit of 10% would, allow for the purchase of a property with a value of no more than £145,450. In 2017, this would mean that those on a median income would be excluded from most properties in the area, and in most years this effect has been of greater significance.

The level of second home ownership and ineffective stock in the area is also much higher than the National Park average (see Table 15). In 2017 this stood at around 13% for Second homes and around 21% for all ineffective stock (Table 51).

Table 51 Ineffective stock levels in the Perth and Kinross part of the National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Occupied 78.7% 77.4% 75.7% 76.1% 76.5% 76.9% 76.1% 76.9% 79.6% 78.8% Second Homes 15.5% 16.0% 18.0% 17.4% 17.5% 17.2% 15.2% 13.4% 13.6% 13.4%

Vacant 5.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.5% 6.1% 5.9% 8.6% 9.5% 7.1% 7.8%

Ineffective 21.3% 22.6% 24.3% 23.9% 23.5% 23.1% 23.9% 22.9% 20.6% 21.2% There is evidence that the settlements have suffered from the lack of affordable housing and indeed the availability of housing in general in recent years, with the Perth and Kinross population of the National Park seeing a net fall by around 1% since 2001. Mid-year estimates from 2001 to 2017 suggest that the area has struggled to maintain its population

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(Figure 78) and furthermore, that this population is aging (Figure 79 and Figure 80). During this time the proportion of children under16 and the proportion of working age people fell by around 21% and 5% respectively while the pensionable age population rose by around 18% (

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Table 52).

1000

975

950

925 Persons 900

875

850 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 78 Mid-year estimates of total population for the Perth and Kinross area of the National Park (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot).

90 And Over 90 And Over 85-89 85-89 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 Age cohort 35-39 Age cohort 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 60 10 40 60 10 40 Persons Persons Female Male Female Male

Figure 79 Estimated population profile by age and sex in Figure 80 Estimated population profile by age and sex in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2001. the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2017. Source: www.statistics.gov.scot

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Table 52 Components of population change in the Aberdeenshire part of the National Park in 2001- 2017 (Source: www.statistics.gov.scot). 2001 2017 Change Cohort No. % No. % No. % Children (under 177 19.1% 127 13.9% -50 -28.2% 16) Working Age 587 63.5% 591 64.5% 4 0.7% (16 - 64) Pensionable Age 161 17.4% 198 21.6% 37 +23.0% (65 and over) Total Population 925 N/A 916 N/A -9 -1.0%

Conclusions The policy aims to ensure that within all HMAs where a significantly higher than 25% level of affordable housing is needed, that a higher threshold be applied in the locations where it will be most effective. It is considered that there is sufficient evidence for this approach and for the policy to meet the evidential tests of SPP and PAN 2/2010.

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3.7 New Sites This section sets out what new sites have been proposed in Proposed Plan (Table 53) as well as what sites are proposed to be deleted (Table 54); the net effect being an important point.

Table 53 Proposed new sites and sites taken forward from LDP 2015 that have been amended to deliver a higher number of units. Proposed Settlement Plan Site Notes No. units Reference H1 New site. 20 Blair Atholl H2 New site. 10 H4 New site. 6 Braemar H5 New site. 20 New Site for community Calvine H1 uses. No number set in - PP. Probably <10. Existing site (EP1). Dulnain Bridge H2 number of units 10 increased from 10 to 20 Grantown-on- Extension to H2 for a H2 30 Spey total of 50 units. New site for affordable Laggan H1 housing. No number set - in PP. Probably <10. H1 New site. 20 Nethy Bridge H2 New site. 4 Total proposed new units 120

Table 54 Sites in LDP 2015 that are proposed to be deleted or amended to have fewer units. Site Settlement Notes No. units deleted Reference Carr-Bridge H1 Reduced in size 36

Deleted because of flood Dalwhinnie H1 (LDP 2015) 6 risk constraints. Deleted because of Dinnet H1 (LDP 2015) 4 delivery constraints. Site area reduced to H1 (Proposed exclude woodland so Dulnain Bridge 10 Plan) units reduced from 30 to 20. Deleted because of Nethy Bridge H1 (LDP 2015) significant natural 15 heritage constraints. Total units proposed for deletion 71 104 | P a g e

The net contribution of new sites, or increases in the number of units on existing sites, is therefore 49. This forms part of a much larger land supply of approximately (some sites don’t have a proposed number of units) 3,351 dwellings (see Table 55). This figure is significantly in excess of the 836 units in the HLR that the Proposed Plan identifies as being needed over the period of 2020-2029. Indeed it is also in excess of the 1,483 that the Proposed indicates is needed up to 2039 (502+334+647=1,483) (see Table 47). These figures do not include windfall sites that currently have consent and are expected to be delivered before 2020.

It is not expected that these sites be delivered in full during the plan period. Expected delivery rates are based on the Housing Land Audits of the Local Authorities and where a new site is proposed, the information provided by the site owner and the professional judgement of the National Park’s planning officers are set out in Table 55. It should be noted that these rates are in excess of those historically recorded in the National Park (see Figure 87).

While Table 55 shows delivery rates in excess of the HLR (Table 47), if one or a combination of these site were to fail to be delivered within the expected timescale, then the likelihood is that the HLR will not be met during the plan period. It is not without reason the CNPA should have this concern. Over the Local Plan (2010) and current LDP’s (2015) plan periods the rate of completions has failed to meet the HSTs within these plans, let alone the HLRs, of those plans (Figure 81) despite the fact that the sites allocated in the Plans and the permissions undelivered within the period, were considered effective at the time. This difference reflects the fact that assessment of effectiveness consider whether the sites are free, or relatively free, of physical ore environmental constraint, while much less tangible factors, such as the capacity of the development company, are much harder to quantify.

180 160

140 120 100 80 60

Number completions 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions HLR

Figure 81 Housing completions 2010-2017 set against the HLRs of the Cairngorms Local Plan (2010) and Local Development Plan (2015). 105 | P a g e

This uncertainty underlies the rationale behind:

 A land supply that is in excess of the HLR to provide flexibility,  The need for a small number of new sites in certain locations, and  Policy 1.11: Long term designations. Settlements The location of the proposed new sites is also important and therefore the justification for this is provided below (see also Table 53).

Blair Atholl Blair Atholl does not contain any housing sites allocated in the current LDP (2015). There has been a significant lack of completions in recent years (see Table 13, Table 14 and Figure 61). The aim of locating two small sites is to provide a level certainty for developments and act as a catalyst for investment. The sites as they are presented in the Proposed Plan will not meet the HLR (Table 47) for the period 2020-2025, although, based on past completion rates, it is considered that the residual 2 units could be met through windfall. The housing land supply for the period 2024-2029 is not set and therefore this will need to be considered in the development of the next development plan. It is also relevant that Proposed Plan states that the affordable housing requirement in Blair Atholl be is 45% (see page 96); allocating new sites is the best way of helping this policy aspiration get delivered.

Braemar Concerns exist about the timescales of the delivery of H1 in Ballater, which is meant to meet the majority of housing need within the Aberdeenshire area of the National Park, in line with Ballater’s status as a Strategic Settlement. Concern also exists around the delivery of H2 in Braemar, which has consent. The site has no physical constraints but has remained undeveloped save for a technical start (it is therefore extant) since it was granted permission in 2014. Given the economic investment that has been made in Braemar’s infrastructure in recent years (e.g. in the Fife Arms Hotel) there is a clear need for accommodation for workers and therefore, it has been deemed appropriate to identify two new sites to ensure this is delivered. The proposed 26 additional dwellings (see Table 53) is commensurate with Braemar’s status as an Intermediate Settlement. Braemar is another settlement in which affordable housing requirement is to be raised to 45% (see page 92); again, allocating new sites is the best way of helping this policy aspiration get delivered.

Calvine Calvine is located within the Perth and Kinross part of the National Park. During the Main Issues Report consultation the former Struan Primary School was proposed for allocation for around 6 affordable houses. It is agreed that this could be an appropriate use, however that the a Community Uses allocation, in which affordable housing is listed as one of the potential uses that could deliver significant community benefits, would be more appropriate.

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No housing figure has been applied to the site, though given the site’s size and characteristics, it is not thought that it could accommodate more than 10.

Dulnain Bridge No new sites are proposed for Dulnain Bridge however, the numbers on H2 (former site EP1) are proposed to be increased by 10, while the numbers of H1 are proposed to be reduced by 10. It is only mentioned here for the sake of completeness. These sites are both taken forward from the current LDP (2015), which were themselves taken forward from the Local Plan (2010), so in effect they are there to meet need over 20 years (starting in 2015) rather than just 10. This level of development is considered to be commensurate with Dulnain Bridge’s size and its role as an Intermediate Settlement.

Grantown-on-Spey Grantown on-Spey is the National Park’s second largest settlement and is identified in the hierarchy as a Strategic Settlement. As such it is recognised that it needs to play a role in the delivery of housing need within Badenoch and Strathspey HMA. The addition of 30 dwellings is therefore a very modest increase in numbers, particularly given that it is expected that H1 will mostly complete by the time the next LDP is adopted. This leaves Grantown-on-Spey with an allocation of approximately 50 dwellings for the Plan period.

Laggan Laggan is on the periphery of the Badenoch and Strathspey HMA and does not currently have any allocated land in the current LDP (2015). The site (H1) was suggested for 100% affordable housing, which by their very nature, are likely to provide significant community benefit. The Proposed Plan does not specify a number of units, though given the site’s size and characteristics. The number of units proposed at the time of development should be commensurate with Laggan’s role as a Rural Settlement.

Nethy Bridge Proposals for Nethy Bridge include the deletion of LDP 2015’s site H1 (see Table 54), which is the only site allocated in the current plan, and the addition of two smaller sites H1 (newly created in the Proposed Plan) and H2 (see Table 53). The net difference between these actions is an increase of 9 dwellings. H1 in the current LDP was intended to deliver 15 dwellings in the period 2015-2019 and it is highly likely that it will fail to do this. Therefore it is considered that new sites are necessary to not only meet need arising within the period of 2020-2029, but also the backlog that has resulted in 2015-2019. Therefore, the preferred sites will meet need for a 15 year period beginning in 2015. The delivery of 24 dwellings over this period is considered to be very modest and commensurate with Nethy Bridge’s status as an Intermediate Settlement.

Policy 1.11: Long Term Designations Aviemore is the largest settlement in the Badenoch and Strathspey HMA and the National Park as a whole. The LDP will therefore need to provide appropriate opportunities for Aviemore to grow in a way which reflects its status as a strategic settlement. In particular,

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there is a need to ensure that there are appropriate opportunities for new housing development in order to meet the needs of local communities.

The An Camas Mòr site (Figure 82) has been identified for a number of years as the most appropriate way of addressing these development needs. The site of the proposed new settlement was included in the Badenoch and Strathspey Local Plan in 1997, as well as the Highland Structure Plan in 2001. It was then allocated for development in the 2010 Cairngorms National Park Local Plan, and was carried forward into the 2015 LDP.

AVIEMORE North

ACM

Scale: 1:8,000

Figure 82 An Camas Mòr (Site Reference ACM), which is identified in the Proposed Plan as a Strategic Consent. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority.

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Planning permission in principle was granted for the An Camas Mòr site in March 2014 (Planning Ref: 2014/0169/MSC). This gave permission in outline terms for the development of a new community of up to 1500 homes, associated business, community facilities, and the provision of infrastructure. That planning permission lapsed in March 2017. In August 2017 the CNPA Planning Committee agreed to approve a further planning permission (Planning Ref: 2017/0086/DET) in principle for the same development, with different conditions and subject to the conclusion of a legal agreement covering planning obligations. This will result in a new planning permission in principle for the proposed new community.

The site owners are now working with a design team to take the An Camas Mòr development forward. This team has experience of delivering other new settlements in the north of Scotland, including Tornagrain near Inverness and Chapelton near Aberdeen.

If An Camas Mòr is delivered as envisaged, it can be expected to meet the bulk of the housing requirements for the Badenoch and Strathspey HMA for the plan period and beyond. However, a development of such scale, over a long period of time, with significant infrastructure costs will be challenging to make happen.

The CNPA will continue to work with the site owners and their design team to deliver An Camas Mòr. However, it is also possible that An Camas Mòr will not be delivered. The next Local Development Plan therefore needs to be able to adapt to those circumstances if they happen and have alternative ways of meeting the National Park’s housing land requirements in the event that the site is unable to be developed.

The CNPA’s assessment of the potential impacts to housing supply of not delivering An Camas Mòr during the lifetime of the next LDP Plan is shown in Figure 83 and Figure 84. They show that supply is expected to meet our annual HLR if An Camas Mòr is developed, but that this is in danger if the site does not progress as envisaged. This however assumes that all other sites are delivered as envisaged and historically this has not been the case (see Figure 81).

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160 Projected Completions 140 Annual Housing Land Requirement 120

100

0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Figure 83 Anticipated housing delivery rates including the An Camas Mòr new settlement 120 Projected Completions 100 Annual Housing Land Requirement

0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Figure 84 Anticipated housing delivery rates excluding the An Camas Mòr new settlement To address this uncertainty the Proposed Plan identifies two sites to act as long term alternatives (Figure 85) as well as a policy (Policy 1.11) to ensure that it is initially embargoed. The long term future of this land would then be reviewed through future LDP.

Policy 1.11 only allows this land to be released for early development under certain circumstances. These circumstances include a clearly identified shortfall in the effective land supply (as identified through annual housing land audits produced by the local authorities in the Park) or the emergence of strong evidence that the An Camas Mòr site was constrained for the entire Plan period (Figure 86).

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North

LTH2

AVIEMORE Scale: 1:8,000

Figure 85 Sites LTH1 and LTH2 which are allocated as Long Term Housing Sites. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority.

Figure 86 Policy 1.11 of the Proposed Plan. 1.11 Long term designations Long term housing designations are identified in Aviemore to set out the settlement’s preferred direction of future growth, to assist in the forward planning of infrastructure and landscape enhancement / mitigation and to ensure that in the event of An Camas Mòr proving undeliverable, a 5-year effective land supply will be maintained. These sites are not relied upon to meet the housing land requirement up to 2030 and are not expected to be released for development during the plan period. Early release of the land will only be considered when there is strong evidence that An Camas Mòr will not be delivered in the plan period and: a) this results in a shortfall in the 5-year effective land supply that cannot be met by: i. windfall provision assuming previous trends; or ii. constrained sites which are likely to become available for development within the relevant 5-year time frame. b) the long term designations are demonstrably deliverable within the relevant 5-year time frame The status of these designations will be reviewed through the next Local Development Plan.

The sites and the policy therefore provide a contingency plan to help avoid the significant uncertainty, and the need to fundamentally review the LDP, which is otherwise likely to arise if An Camas Mòr is not delivered during the Plan period. As the long term land would not be allowed to be developed at the same time as An Camas Mòr, this would also ensure 111 | P a g e

that we continue to protect the outstanding environment and natural heritage of the National Park by not identifying more land for development than is necessary.

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3.8 Land Supply and Delivery SPP (2014) states that Local Development Plans (LDP) should “…allocate a range of sites which are effective or expected to become effective in the plan period to meet the housing land requirement in full. They should provide a minimum of 5 years effective land supply at all times”.

Table 55 sets out the estimated effective housing land supply allocated in the LDP. The CNPA has no statutory duty to produce Housing Land Audits (HLAs), however this estimate follows the same methodology carried out by the Highland Council in their most recent HLA and draws on information from the HLAs completed by the relevant local authorities. The table identifies and provides a programme of expected housing delivery over the initial and following 5 year periods and includes expectations for the delivery of new homes up to 2030 and beyond.

Sites included in the estimate are only those chosen for allocation. Some already benefit from consent, or partially benefit from consent. However, it is important to note that it does not include all those with consent as many sites for 5 or more housing units, which is the threshold for inclusion within a HLA, have not been deemed suitable or desirable for allocation

It is significant to note that a number of the existing housing sites are relatively large (e.g. site allocations H1 in Ballater [250 houses], M1 in Aviemore [214 houses], H2 in Aviemore [83 houses], H1 in Kingussie [300 houses], H1 in Newtonmore [120 houses], and the proposed new settlement at An Camas Mòr [1,500 houses]). Further long term housing sites are identified as LTH 1 and LTH2 in Aviemore, and while these have an indicative capacity of 400 units, they are only deemed effective other sites are not, and therefore do not form part of the effective housing land supply at this stage. These large strategic sites can provide long-term certainty and are expected to meet the bulk of the National Park’s housing needs. However, as it takes time to put in place the necessary infrastructure and delivery arrangements for such sites they can take time to start or be affected by changes in the housing market.

The delivery of these sites will need to be monitored by the CNPA and should any issues with the current land supply be identified, then other policy and site options may need to be sought. The framework for this monitoring is set out within the Local Development Plan’s Action Programme, which is updated on an annual basis. In summary, The Action Programme sets out how the CNPA, constituent local authorities and other partners intend to implement the LDP, setting out where possible:  A list of actions required to deliver each of the Plan’s key policies and proposals;  The organisation who is to carry out the action; and  The broad timescale for carrying out each action.

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Table 55 Estimated land supply for LDP 2020 Effective Effective Effective Effective Site reference / Total Settlement supply supply supply supply name capacity Pre 2020 2020-2024 2025-2029 Post 2030 Aberdeenshire H1: Monaltrie Park 250 0 25 25 200 Ballater C1: Former School 26 26 0 0 0 H1: Chapel Brae 6 3 3 0 0 H2: St Andrews 30 0 9 21 0 Terrace Braemar H3: Kindrochit 11 0 11 0 0 Court H4: Chapel Brae 6 0 6 0 0 H5: North Braemar 20 0 0 20 0 Dinnet H1: Land to East 15 5 10 0 0 Aberdeenshire Total 364 34 64 66 200 Highland H1: Dalfaber 10 0 10 0 0 H2: Dalfaber 83 0 40 31 12 M1: Aviemore 214 10 100 104 0 Highland Resort Aviemore M2: Laurel Bank ACM: An Camas 1,500 0 150 150 1,200 Mòr LTH 1 & LTH2 400 0 0 0 0 North Aviemore Grantown- H1: Beachen Court 53 42 11 0 0 on-Spey H2: Castle Road 50 5 45 0 0 H1: Ardbroilach Kingussie Road / Craig an 300 10 50 50 190 Darach H1: Perth Road / Newtonmore 120 20 43 38 19 Station Road H1: Carr Road 36 0 36 0 0 Carr-Bridge H2: Crannich Park 23 23 0 0 0 H1: Kirk Road 20 0 0 6 14 Cromdale H2: Auchroisk Park 22 6 10 4 0 H1: Land West of 20 0 0 20 0 Dulnain Play Area Bridge H2: Land Adjacent 20 0 20 0 0 A938 Kincraig H1: Opposite School 40 4 15 15 6 H1: Lettoch Road 20 0 20 0 0 Nethy Bridge H2: Lynstock 4 0 4 0 0 Crescent Dalwhinnie H1: Land by Garage 6 0 6 0 0 H1 Land Adjacent to Laggan 0 0 0 0 0 A86 Highland Total 2,941 120 565 413 1,441 Moray H1: Conglass Lane 8 0 8 0 0 Tomintoul H2: Lecht Drive 8 0 0 8 0 Moray Total 16 0 8 8 0 Perth & Kinross H1: Old Bridge of Blair Atholl 20 0 20 0 0 Tilt 114 | P a g e

Effective Effective Effective Effective Site reference / Total Settlement supply supply supply supply name capacity Pre 2020 2020-2024 2025-2029 Post 2030 H2: Main Road 10 0 8 2 0 Calvine C1: Old School 0 0 0 0 0 Perth & Kinross Total 30 0 28 2 0 CNPA Total 3,351 154 665 489 1,641

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4. SUMMARY – KEY ISSUES / IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Identifying housing need and demand Updated Housing Need and Demands Assessments have been undertaken by the relevant local authorities within the National Park. The new Local Development Plan will need to take account of this information, along with the range of other evidence presented in Section 3 of this report, in order to establish new housing supply targets and housing land requirements for the plan period. Initial options for the new Local Development Plan’s housing supply targets and land requirements are outlined in Table 46 and Table 47.

Existing housing land supply The current Local Development Plan identifies a large number of existing housing sites, many of which have not yet been built. These sites can be expected to make a significant contribution towards meeting housing land requirements over the next plan period. The new Local Development Plan will need to take account of this large existing housing land supply.

It is, however, also significant to note that a number of the existing housing sites are relatively large (e.g. site allocations H1 in Ballater [250 houses], M1 in Aviemore [140 houses], H1 and H2 in Aviemore [93 houses], H1 in Kingussie [300 houses], H1 in Newtonmore [120 houses], and the proposed new settlement at An Camas Mòr [1,500 houses]). The new Local Development Plan will need to consider the deliverability of these sites – particularly in the short term. It may need to examine the case for increasing flexibility in the housing supply by identifying a limited number of smaller sites to help support housing delivery in the short term.

Affordability of housing The National Park experiences unique pressures in relation to the affordability of housing. These result from a combination of factors including high house prices relative to local wages, a high proportion of ‘ineffective’ housing stock (consisting largely of second and holiday homes), and a lower than average proportion of smaller sized properties within the Park. The new Local Development Plan will therefore need to ensure that more of the new housing that is built within the plan period is better targeted at meeting local needs. This could be achieved through a range of methods, including considering the case for higher affordable housing contributions in areas of most acute need, and seeking to influence the nature of new open market housing to secure a greater mix of house types and sizes (including more small homes).

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5. REFERENCES AND FURTHER INFORMATION

Aberdeen City and Shire Strategic Planning Authority. (2017). Aberdeen City and Shire Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Aberdeen: Aberdeen City and Shire Strategic Planning Authority.

Angus Council. (2010). Angus Housing Need and Demand Assessmet. Forfar: Angus Council.

Bramley, G. (2008). Rapid Evidence Assessment of the Research Literature on the Purchase and Use of Second Homes. Fareham: National Housing and Planning Advice Unit.

Highland Council. (2015). Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Inverness: Highland Council.

Ipsos Mori. (2017). Stimulating Housing Development in the Highlands and Islands’.

Moray Council. (2018). Moray Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Elgin: Moray Council.

National Records of Scotland. (2014). Population Projections for Scotland's Strategic Development Plan Areas and National Parks (2012-based). Edinburgh: National Records of Scotland.

National Records of Scotland. (2014). Population Projections for Scottish areas (2012-based): Population projections by age and sex at council area and NHS health board level. Edinburgh: National Records of Scotland.

National Records of Scotland. (2016). Population and Household Projections for Scottish Sub- council Areas (2012-based). Edinburgh: National Records of Scotland.

National Records Scotland. (2017). Household Projections for Scotland’s Strategic Development Plan Areas and national Parks (2014-based). Edinburgh: National Records Scotland.

National Records Scotland. (2018). Household Projections for Scotland (2016-based). Edinburgh: National Records Scotland.

National Records Scotland. (2018). Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2016-based). Edinburgh: National Records Scotland.

Office for National Statistics. (2018). Nomis: Official Labour Market Statistics. Retrieved November 2018, from www.nomisweb.co.uk

Office for National Statistics. (2018). Personal and household finances. Retrieved November 2018, from Office for National Statistics: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances

Perth & Kinross Council. (2009). Perth & Kinross Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Perth: Perth & Kinross Council.

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Scottish Government. (2010). Planning Advide Note 2/2010: Affordable Housing and Housing Land Audits. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

Scottish Government. (2013). Planning Circular 6/2013: Development Plans. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

Scottish Government. (2014). National Planning Framework. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

Scottish Government. (2014). Scottish Planning Policy. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

Scottish Government. (2017). Scottish Government Experimental Statistics on Local Level Household Income Estimates. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

Scottish Government. (2018). Statistics.gov.scot. Retrieved November 2018, from www.statistics.gov.scot

TAYplan. (2013). TAYplan-wide Joint Housing Need and Demand Assessment. Dundee: TAYplan.

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APPENDIX 1: Housing Need and Demand Assessment Diagram

Required for development plan

EVIDENCE BASE • Established supply

• Effectiveness of supply

• Historic windfall

• Urban capacity

• Fuel poverty HNDA Key housing market drivers: • Energy• efficiency - demographic - affordability - economic

• StockHNDA profile, pressures TOOL and management• Additional issues future housing units: • Provision of specialist housing and housing -- relatedbuy in the services market for - PRS or seek below market independentrent living - need social rent • Future affordability scenarios

Required for LHS 119 | P a g e

APPENDIX 2: LDP Potential Population Change

Introduction Long term population and household projections for the National Park are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS). According to the most recent NRS population projections, the overall population of the Park is predicted to fall from 19,006 to 18,332 over the 25 year period between 2016 and 2041 (a decrease of around 4%). By the end of the LDP period, the decline is projected to be around 1%. This is because it is likely that over the next 20-25 years more people will die of old age than are born in the National Park. Migration to the National Park from other places is still expected to be high during that period.

But population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. NRS’s population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.

The LDP is an example of a local government policy intervention that may have an influence over population trends. While population and household projections form a key element of estimating housing need and demand, they are not the sole factor in determining what the Plan’s Housing Land Requirement.

If the LDP delivers housing at a rate that would meet its objectives, that is to say, that the housing land requirement was met in full during its period, then the development rate would exceed that at which has been experienced in the past (Figure 87) and therefore, population change within the Cairngorms may differ to that projected by NRS.

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160 140

120 Start of Plan perod 100 80 60 40 Housing completions 20 0

Projected annual housing delivery Recorded completions 2008-2017 5 year average completions (2013-2017) 10 Year average completions (2008-2017)

Figure 87 LDP (2020-2029) Projected annual housing delivery and historic completions (Source: Local Authorities and CNPA). It is important to note that the Cairngorms National Park is not in a position to produce its own population projections. However, it is possible to estimate a population that may accommodated within the new housing and the distribution of this population by settlement based on the location of sites.

Such estimates come with the caveat that they are based on a set of particular assumptions, some of which rely on professional judgement. Further issues relate to the scale at which the estimates are produced, not last being the volatile nature of the small area population estimates on which the model relies.

All assumptions are set out within the methodology section of this paper.

Methodology and Assumptions

Population In order to measure change a baseline population for settlements needs to be established. While mid-year estimates exist at a data zone level, in LDP terms these are problematic as creating aggregates or disaggregates for settlements is an inherently problematic exercise. There is also the factor that change through the LDP comes through the creation of new dwellings and therefore new dwellings act as a proxy for population.

The methodology of determining the baseline population of settlements and the degree of change therefore uses estimates of average household size as per NRS latest household estimates (2014-based). According to these the average household size across the National Park in 2020 will be 2.06 and will fall at an average rate of 0.01 each year of the projection period.

The baseline population of settlements is therefore based on the number occupied dwellings that exist in 2017 multiplied by the estimated average household size in that year, which is 121 | P a g e

2.09. In order to estimate the population at the start of the LDP, the estimated number of new occupied dwellings are added for the years 2018 and 2019 with the appropriate average household size multipliers. These multipliers are applied to all of the estimated occupied dwellings not just the new ones.

Geography For the purpose of these estimates, the geography of the settlements is identified by applying a 500m buffer around LDP settlement boundaries. This is because settlement boundaries are a tool to delineate the limits of development and that individual and clusters of dwellings exist outside of these boundaries while still being an effective part of that settlement.

There is a single exception to this and that is in Dulnain Bridge and this is because of its close relationship with Skye of Curr. Both settlements are separate entities though they are also physically connected. Dulnain Bridge is identified as a Rural Settlement in the LDP’s Settlement Strategy and therefore has a settlement boundary, while Skye of Curr is not identified as settlement and therefore does not have a settlement boundary. This distinction simply comes down to the existence of services in Dulnain Bridge that do not exist in Skye of Curr. However, both have populations that are interconnected, therefore in functional terms, for example in the context of recreational patters, Skye of Curr needs to be taken account of. For the purpose of these estimates therefore, Skye of Curr is included as part of Dulnain Bridge.

The number of residential properties within these geographies can be identified based on Basic Land and Property Unit (BLPU) data.

Housing Occupation Across the National Park around the level of ineffective stock is around 17%. There are local variations and this information is available at datazone level in the form of NRS’s household estimates. Therefore, the local levels of ineffective stock are applied to the residential properties identified in the BLPU data.

An equivalent level of ineffective stock is also applied to the new housing, although it is only applied to the market component, as affordable housing has restrictions that prevent it from becoming the most significant contributor to ineffective stock, namely second homes.

Housing Delivery The rate of development is informed by the Housing Land Audits of the Local Authorities that cover the National Park’s area. Where a site is newly proposed assumptions about delivery are based on the information provided by site owners during the call for sites process. Such a rate of delivery is higher than the historic average and is designed to ensure objectives of the LDP are achieved. Assumptions about windfall have not been applied as levels are too low and the land too constrained to provide accurate estimate.

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Results The following section sets out the projections based on the methodology set out in the previous section. Note that the data only includes settlements identified in the LDP’s settlement strategy and that there are residential properties outwith this area. It should also be noted that the provision of housing is not considered to be the cause of population change in itself, so the tables offer an estimate of the population the housing is likely to accommodate if occupancy rates reflect those already experienced in the National Park.

Three scenarios have been created. Table 56 shows the theoretical population the housing stock could accommodate if delivery rates are those required to meet the LDP’s objectives and are set out within Local Authority HMAs.

Table 57 shows the theoretical population the housing stock could accommodate if delivery rates match the average of the last 10 years. Table 58 shows the theoretical population the housing stock could accommodate if no new housing was provided during the plan period.

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Table 56 Projected change in dwellings and population for settlements identified in the LDP’s Settlement Strategy according to HLA delivery rates. Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Settlement population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 Aberdeenshire Ballater 740 1,533 762 1,531 -2 +1% 783 1,542 +9 +1% Braemar 262 542 287 576 +35 +6% 322 635 +93 +17% Dinnet 44 90 53 106 +16 +18% 53 104 +14 +15% Strathdon 38 79 38 76 -2 -3% 38 75 -4 -5% HMA TOTAL 1,084 2,243 1,139 2,290 +46 +2% 1,196 2,356 +112 +5% Angus Clova 8 16 8 16 0 -3% 8 16 -1 -5% HMA TOTAL 8 16 8 16 0 -3% 8 16 -1 -5% Highland Aviemore 1,777 3,679 2,043 4,106 +428 +12% 2,304 4,539 +861 +23% Boat of Garten 315 653 315 634 -19 -3% 315 621 -32 -5% Carr-Bridge 379 784 412 828 +43 +6% 412 811 +27 +3% Coylumbridge 32 67 32 65 -2 -3% 32 64 -3 -5% Cromdale 118 243 126 254 +11 +4% 135 266 +23 +9% Dalwhinnie 86 179 92 185 +6 +3% 92 181 +2 +1% Dulnain Bridge 169 351 187 375 +25 +7% 204 402 +51 +15% Grantown-on-Spey 1,370 2,836 1,423 2,860 +24 +1% 1,423 28,03 -33 -1% Insh 57 118 57 114 -3 -3% 57 112 -6 -5% Inverdruie 61 126 61 122 -4 -3% 61 119 -6 -5% Kincraig 153 317 166 333 +15 +5% 178 350 +33 +10% Kingussie 799 1,653 845 1,699 +46 +3% 892 1,758 +105 +6% Laggan 34 71 34 69 -2 -3% 34 67 -3 -5% Nethy Bridge 361 747 381 766 +19 +3% 381 751 3 0% Newtonmore 692 1,433 732 1471 +38 +3% 767 1,510 +77 +5% HMA TOTAL 6,404 13257 6,906 13,881 +624 +5% 7,287 14,356 +1,099 +8% Moray Glenlivet 40 82 40 80 -2 -3% 40 78 -4 -5% Tomintoul 179 370 185 373 +3 +1% 192 378 +8 +2% HMA TOTAL 219 452 225 453 0 0% 232 457 +4 +1% 124 | P a g e

Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Settlement population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 Perth and Kinross Blair Atholl 229 473 253 509 +36 +8% 255 503 +30 +6% Bruar & Pitagowan 11 23 11 22 -1 -3% 11 22 -1 -5% Calvine 20 41 20 40 -1 -3% 20 39 -2 -5% Glenshee 11 23 11 22 -1 -3% 11 22 -1 -5% Killiecrankie 30 62 30 61 -2 -3% 30 59 -3 -5% HMA TOTAL 301 623 326 655 +32 +5% 327 645 +22 +4% All Settlements 8,015 16,592 8,604 17,294 702 +4% 9,050 17,829 1237 +7%

Table 57 Projected change in dwellings and population for Housing Market Areas if 10-year average annual completion rate continues. Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Settlement population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 Aberdeenshire 1,055 2,221 1,101 2,251 +29 +1% 1,148 2,298 +76 +3% Angus 8 16 8 16 0 -3% 8 16 -1 -5% Highland 6,366 13,252 6,636 13,411 +159 +1% 6,907 13,677 +425 +3% Moray 219 459 227 463 +3 +1% 235 470 +10 +2% Perth and Kinross 301 626 305 617 -9 -1% 310 614 -13 -2% All Settlements 7,948 16,575 8,278 16,757 +182 +1% 8,607 17,073 +498 +3%

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Table 58 Projected change in dwellings and population for settlements identified in the LDP’s Settlement Strategy if no housing is delivered. Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Settlement population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 Aberdeenshire Ballater 718 1,487 718 1,444 -43 -3% 718 1,415 -72 -5% Braemar 259 536 259 521 -16 -3% 259 511 -26 -5% Dinnet 39 81 39 78 -2 -3% 39 77 -4 -5% Strathdon 38 79 38 76 -2 -3% 38 75 -4 -5% HMA TOTAL 1,055 2,183 1,055 2,120 -63 -3% 1,055 2,077 -105 -5% Angus Clova 8 16 8 16 0 -3% 8 16 -1 -5% HMA TOTAL 8 16 8 16 0 -3% 8 16 -1 -5% Highland Aviemore 1,768 3,660 1,768 3,554 -106 -3% 1,768 3,483 -177 -5% Boat of Garten 315 653 315 634 -19 -3% 315 621 -32 -5% Carr-Bridge 358 741 358 720 -21 -3% 358 705 -36 -5% Coylumbridge 32 67 32 65 -2 -3% 32 64 -3 -5% Cromdale 112 232 112 226 -7 -3% 112 221 -11 -5% Dalwhinnie 86 179 86 174 -5 -3% 86 170 -9 -5% Dulnain Bridge 169 351 169 340 -10 -3% 169 334 -17 -5% Grantown-on-Spey 1,326 2,745 1,326 2,665 -80 -3% 1,326 2,612 -133 -5% Insh 57 118 57 114 -3 -3% 57 112 -6 -5% Inverdruie 61 126 61 122 -4 -3% 61 119 -6 -5% Kincraig 150 311 150 302 -9 -3% 150 296 -15 -5% Kingussie 789 1634 789 1,586 -47 -3% 789 1,555 -79 -5% Laggan 34 71 34 69 -2 -3% 34 67 -3 -5% Nethy Bridge 361 747 361 726 -22 -3% 361 711 -36 -5% Newtonmore 674 1395 674 1354 -40 -3% 674 1327 -67 -5% HMA TOTAL 6,294 13,028 6,294 12,650 -378 -3% 6,294 12,398 -629 -5% Moray Glenlivet 40 82 40 80 -2 -3% 40 78 -4 -5% Tomintoul 179 370 179 359 -11 -3% 179 352 -18 -5% HMA TOTAL 219 452 219 439 -13 -3% 219 431 -22 -5% 126 | P a g e

Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated % Estimated % Estimated Occupied Population Occupied Population Occupied population Population population Population Settlement population Dwellings change at Dwellings change at Dwellings at end of change at at end of change at 2020 at end of end 20-24 at end of end 25-29 2020 20-24 end 20-24 25-29 end 25-29 20-24 25-29 Perth and Kinross Blair Atholl 229 473 229 459 -14 -3% 229 450 -23 -5% Bruar & Pitagowan 11 23 11 22 -1 -3% 11 22 -1 -5% Calvine 20 41 20 40 -1 -3% 20 39 -2 -5% Glenshee 11 23 11 22 -1 -3% 11 22 -1 -5% Killiecrankie 30 62 30 61 -2 -3% 30 59 -3 -5% HMA TOTAL 301 623 301 605 -18 -3% 301 593 -30 -5% All Settlements 7,875 16,302 7,875 15,830 -473 -3% 7,875 15,515 -788 -5%

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APPENDIX 3: Highland Waiting list 2018 Table 59 Highland Housing Register at April 1st 2018 (Source: Highland Council). Total Demand using 1st choice Demand using all choices Re-Lets Supply Lettings Area 01.04.2018 01.04.2018 01.04.18 01.04.2017 to 31.03.2018 Zone Bed size Description Housing Transfer Housing Transfer Housing Transfer Total Total Total Total List List List List List List

Bedsit/1 Bed 123 22 145 228 35 263 134 8 0 8

2 Bed 36 16 52 66 22 88 183 10 1 11

Aviemore 3 Bed 25 9 34 49 16 65 61 0 0 0

4+ Bed 4 5 9 13 7 20 8 0 0 0

Total 188 52 240 356 80 436 386 18 1 19

Bedsit/1 Bed 10 0 10 91 7 98 6 0 2 2

2 Bed 2 1 3 21 7 28 20 7 0 7

AVIEMORE Boat of Garten 3 Bed 2 1 3 23 6 29 4 2 0 2

4+ Bed 2 0 2 6 1 7 2 0 1 1

Total 16 2 18 141 21 162 32 9 3 12

Bedsit/1 Bed 6 2 8 94 8 102 14 0 0 0

2 Bed 2 3 5 15 9 24 19 1 0 1

Carr-Bridge 3 Bed 2 1 3 18 8 26 7 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 1 1 4 1 5 0 0 0 0

Total 10 7 17 131 26 157 40 1 0 1

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Total Demand using 1st choice Demand using all choices Re-Lets Supply Lettings Area 01.04.2018 01.04.2018 01.04.18 01.04.2017 to 31.03.2018 Zone Bed size Description Housing Transfer Housing Transfer Housing Transfer Total Total Total Total List List List List List List

Bedsit/1 Bed 4 0 4 60 2 62 8 0 0 0

2 Bed 1 0 1 11 8 19 9 1 0 1

Kincraig 3 Bed 1 0 1 15 3 18 6 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 0 0 4 3 7 1 0 0 0

Total 6 0 6 90 16 106 24 1 0 1

Bedsit/1 Bed 2 0 2 30 4 34 1 0 0 0

2 Bed 0 0 0 5 2 7 6 2 0 2

Cromdale 3 Bed 1 0 1 7 5 12 4 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Total 3 0 3 43 11 54 11 2 0 2

GRANTOWN Bedsit/1 Bed 2 1 3 39 5 44 3 0 0 0 -ON-SPEY 2 Bed 0 0 0 9 3 12 3 1 0 1

Dulnain Bridge 3 Bed 1 0 1 11 4 15 5 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 0 0 3 2 5 0 0 0 0

Total 3 1 4 62 14 76 11 1 0 1

Grantown-on- Bedsit/1 Bed 49 10 59 105 14 119 32 4 0 4 Spey 2 Bed 12 5 17 29 7 36 88 2 1 3

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3 Bed 17 6 23 26 9 35 24 1 0 1

4+ Bed 5 3 8 8 5 13 7 0 0 0

Total 83 24 107 168 35 203 151 7 1 8

Bedsit/1 Bed 5 1 6 46 7 53 14 3 0 3

2 Bed 4 1 5 12 6 18 30 3 1 4

Nethy Bridge 3 Bed 1 0 1 13 5 18 8 0 0 0

4+ Bed 1 0 1 5 0 5 1 0 0 0

Total 11 2 13 76 18 94 53 6 1 7

Bedsit/1 Bed 0 0 0 13 1 14 0 0 0 0

2 Bed 0 0 0 3 1 4 1 0 0 0

Dalwhinnie 3 Bed 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0

KINGUSSIE Total 0 0 0 21 2 23 1 0 0 0

Bedsit/1 Bed 28 3 31 103 10 113 32 1 0 1

2 Bed 5 3 8 19 9 28 59 5 1 6 Kingussie 3 Bed 3 2 5 16 5 21 23 1 0 1

4+ Bed 1 0 1 7 3 10 2 0 0 0

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Total 37 8 45 145 27 172 116 7 1 8

Bedsit/1 Bed 2 0 2 11 0 11 2 1 0 1

2 Bed 3 0 3 5 1 6 2 0 0 0

Laggan 3 Bed 1 0 1 9 1 10 8 2 0 2

4+ Bed 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Total 6 0 6 26 2 28 12 3 0 3

Bedsit/1 Bed 17 2 19 62 6 68 8 0 0 0

2 Bed 4 2 6 12 7 19 16 1 0 1

Newtonmore 3 Bed 7 1 8 11 2 13 10 0 0 0

4+ Bed 0 0 0 3 1 4 2 0 0 0

Total 28 5 33 88 16 104 36 1 0 1

Bedsit/1 Bed 248 41 289 882 99 981 254 17 2 19

2 Bed 69 31 100 207 82 289 436 33 4 37 Total 3 Bed 61 20 81 201 64 265 160 6 0 6

4+ Bed 13 9 22 57 23 80 23 0 1 1

Total 391 101 492 1,347 268 1,615 873 56 7 63

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APPENDIX 4: Boundaries and statistical areas used in the analysis of the Cairngorms National Park The population and demographic information contained within this publication is mostly based on data zones aggregated to a larger geographical area, which roughly corresponds with the area of the Cairngorms National Park.

Data zones are the standard small area geography used by the Scottish Government (SG). In general they have populations of between 500 and 1,000 residents. Data zone boundaries do not exactly match the National Park boundary and so, for the purpose of statistical analysis, data zones are included or excluded based on the ‘population weighted centroid’. This is a standard procedure for assigning the population of a small geography to a large geography if the former does not wholly fit within the boundaries of the latter or lies across the border of two large geographies. This is the methodology used in National Records of Scotland’s (NRS) population projections for National Parks and Strategic Development Plan Areas (National Records of Scotland, 2014), and so for the sake of transparency and consistency, the same approach has been applied to all relevant data-sets within this document.

The population weighted centroid is essentially the point in the area where population density is the same all around the point, or put more simply, the population ‘centre of gravity’ of the area. A data zone has been allocated to the National Park area if the population weighted centroid lies within it.

It should be noted that in estimating the population of the National Park and calculating its projected growth, NRS does not include data zone S01005147 / S01011981, which is in Perth and Kinross. Population estimates presented in NRS documents therefore differ from those of the CNPA, since the CNPA does include the data zone within its analyses of the National Park’s demographic and socio-economic character.

This difference does not however result in a significant problem when considering NRS’ population projections, since it is not the headline population that generates a policy response, but the rate and scale at which change occurs. Since data zone S01005147 / S01011981’s population was only estimated to be 941 in 2014 and the fact that it saw no statistically significant change over the period of 2001-2014 (an estimated net increase of 16 persons), there is little to suggest that its absence within NRS’ calculations would have had a significant impact on the robustness of their projections.

It should be noted that the Scottish Government published revised 2011 Data Zones on 6 November 2014 and that these geographies replace the original 2001 boundaries used in the NRS population projections (National Records of Scotland, 2014). At a National Park level the changes are very minor with the 2011 data zone boundaries corresponding closely with those of the 2001 ones. This however means that within this document both 2001 and 2011 data zones are used, as at the time of writing large amounts of data was not yet available in

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for the revised data zones. Based on this methodology, the following data zones shown in Figure 88 and Figure 89 have been chosen to represent the National Park.

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S01000301 S01003772 S01003771 S01000303 North S01000312 S01003764 S01003767 S01000316 S01003760 S01003766 S01000360 Aberdeenshire S01003759 S01003743 S01003755 S01004233 S01003756 S01003747 S01003748 S01003754 S01000360 S01003749 S01003751 S01003750 S01003749 S01003750 S01003751

S01003754 S01000316 S01003748 S01003755 S01003747 S01003756 S01000312 S01000301 Highland S01003759 S01003743 S01000303 S01003760

2001 Scottish Data Zones 2001 S01003764 S01003766 S01003767 S01005147 S01003771 S01003772

Scale: Moray S01004233 1:600,000 PKC S01005147

Figure 88 2001 Scottish Data Zones. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. © Scottish Government. 134 | P a g e

S01006789 S01010543 S01010547 S01006790 North S01006791 S01010544 S01010546 S01006792 S01010541 S01010545 S01006793 Aberdeenshire S01010540 S01010531 S01011045 S01010538 S01010542 S01010532 S01010533 S01010536 S01010534 S01010537 S01006791 S01010535 S01010539 S01010536 S01010534 S01010535 S01010537

S01006790 S01010538 S01010533 S01010531 S01006789 S01010539 S01010540 S01006793 Highland S01010532 S01006792 Data 1 Scottish Zones S01010541 S01010542 201 S01010543 S01010544 S01010545 S01011981 S01010546 S01010547 Scale: Moray S01011045 1:600,000 PKC S01011981

Figure 89 2011 Scottish Data Zones Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2019. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. © Scottish Government.

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