Trainer Track Stats Irish NH 2014-2015 Season “Winner Finding Made Simple” © 2014 Gavin Priestley Table of Contents Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 1 User’s Guide ........................................................................................................................................... 2 Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................... 2 CLOMEL .................................................................................................................................................... 3 CORK …..................................................................................................................................................... 4 DOWN ROYAL .......................................................................................................................................... 5 DOWNPATRICK ......................................................................................................................................... 6 FAIRYHOUSE ............................................................................................................................................. 7 GOWRAN PARK ......................................................................................................................................... 8 LEOPARDSTOWN ....................................................................................................................................... 9 LIMERICK ................................................................................................................................................... 10 NAAS …...................................................................................................................................................... 11 NAVAN …................................................................................................................................................... 12 PUNCHESTOWN ........................................................................................................................................ 13 THURLES …................................................................................................................................................. 14 TRAMORE …............................................................................................................................................... 15 WEXFORD …............................................................................................................................................... 16 © 2014 Gavin Priestley Introduction First of all, congratulations and thank you for trying Trainer Track Stats (Irish NH 2014/15 Season), the leading statistical analysis of racehorse trainer patterns. Over the past five seasons, the trainers in this guide have all earned their place by consistently leading their horses into the winners’ enclosure. But the key to this guide is that most of the trainers have a record that is negative overall. That is, if you’d simply bet all of their horses at the track, you’d have made a loss. However, by carefully selecting specific types of race in which the trainer excels, Trainer Track Stats Irish NH 2014/15 (TTS) provides a unique insight that is not available anywhere else. This further breakdown pinpoints with absolute precision the trainer specialities that you need to focus on. By only betting horses at 14/1 or shorter, TTS followers do miss the occasional big priced winner. But when putting this guide together, I decided that consistency of winners and shorter losing streaks is the route forward, and that’s been borne out for our followers over the years. However, do please note that due to the statistical nature of this information, losing runs can occur. I recommend a betting bank to begin with of at least 50 points. That is, if you normally bet £5, then a bank of £250 should be used. If you normally bet, £20, then £1000 bank is recommended, and so on. Below, you’ll find a short section on how to use TTS, which I hope is very straightforward. If you have any questions or comments on anything you see or read here, do please contact me at [email protected] Congratulations again on your purchase, and good luck! Gavin Priestley p.s. You can find out more about me, and follow my day to day antics at my blog: Gavin’s blog: www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog © 2014 Gavin Priestley Page 1 User’s Guide In putting this guide together, I have tried to make things as easy as possible. However, there are one or two terms which newcomers to jump racing may not understand, and so here is a glossary of terms and their meanings. Term Meaning All All runners for this trainer at this track Chase The larger of the obstacles in NH racing, usually for more mature horses Flat A beginner race for NH horses, involving racing without obstacles Hurdles/hdls Hurdles are the smaller of the two types of obstacles which NH racing features Hcap/hcp/handicap A Handicap is a race where horses carry weight according to their ability, such that each has a theoretically equal chance of winning Non-chase All races (i.e. flat and hurdles) except for chase races Non-flat All races (i.e. chases and hurdles) except for flat races Non-hurdles All races (i.e. flat and chase) except for hurdle races yo ‘Year old’, e.g. 3-7yo refers to horses aged between 3 and 7 To find the TTS horses, simply check your newspaper daily for the relevant trainers and race types and, if there’s a qualifier at 14/1 or shorter, it’s a bet! It’s as easy as that. But remember, we are only betting between October 1st and March 31st . A word on «’s «’s are awarded to any trainer who has achieved one or more of the following over the last five years, with horses sent off at 14/1 or shorter, October to March: Ø 8 or more winners at the track Ø Strike Rate of 33.3% or more Ø A profit of 15 units or more to a 1 unit stake Ø A profit of 1.20 units per runner to a 1 unit stake Ø At least 1 winner for each of the last 5 Seasons A + will be awarded to any trainer who has managed 2 or more wins for each of the last 5 Seasons. A ++ will be awarded to any trainer who has managed 3 or more wins for each of the last 5 Seasons. The more «s, the higher the confidence factor associated with that trainer / track combination. The highest award given is the coveted TTS 5«++ Disclaimer Here at Trainer Track Stats, we understand that gambling can become an addiction that can cause great harm if not controlled. Despite the excellent historical track records of our trainers, we remind you that you should only ever bet with an amount of money that you can afford to lose. For help with regard to a gambling addiction, or more information on the subject, please visit: www.gamcare.org.uk © 2014 Gavin Priestley Page 2 CLONMEL Commentary The racecourse is a right handed track of one and a quarter miles. It is recognised as a demanding National Hunt course with a stiff uphill climb followed by a gradual downhill run with an uphill finish. I have tried to avoid using Willie Mullins too many times in this guide but with a lack of worthwhile trainers at Clonmel we have no choice other than to use Ireland's Champion Trainer as our representative for the opening track. Trainer Race Types Wins Runs Strike P/L PPR* *'s W. Mullins Rested at least 21 days. Top 4 last time out 27 49 55.10% 21.82 0.44 4++ (*PPR = Profit Per Runner) WILLIE MULLINS 2009/14 Track Record SEASON WINNERS RUNNERS 2009 5 8 2010 4 8 2011 4 7 2012 4 8 2013-2014 10 18 TOTAL 27 49 © 2014 Gavin Priestley Page 3 CORK Commentary Cork Racecourse stages both National Hunt racing and Flat racing. It is located 35 km north of Cork and 64 km from Limerick. The course is right handed, one and a half miles round and has a straight sprint course of five furlongs. The course was opened in 1924 and was originally known as Mallow Racecourse. Our two representatives show decent strike rates and high profit figures but from wildly differing types of horses. Trainer Race Types Wins Runs Strike P/L LSP% «s Trainer Race Types Wins Runs Strike P/L PPR *'s H. De Bromhead 4-7yo's with 1 – 10 career starts 8 16 50.00% 36.38 2.27 5 R. Tyner 5-10yo's. Debut or top 4 LTO. Nov. on 9 26 34.62% 31.13 1.20 5 HENRY DE BROMHEAD 2009/14 Track Record SEASON WINNERS RUNNERS 2009 1 1 2010 1 3 2011 1 2 2012 3 6 2013-2014 2 4 TOTAL 8 16 ROBERT TYNER 2009/14 Track Record SEASON WINNERS RUNNERS 2009 2 3 2010 1 4 2011 1 7 2012 3 6 2013-2014 2 6 TOTAL 9 26 © 2014 Gavin Priestley Page 4 DOWN ROYAL Commentary Down Royal is a horse racing venue near Lisburn in Northern Ireland. The track is 1 mile 7.5 furlongs and all races are run in a clockwise direction. Our representative is another to enjoy decent profits from a relatively small number of Seasonal runners whilst maintaining a 1 in 3 strike rate for his chosen runners. Trainer Race Types Wins Runs Strike P/L LSP% «s Trainer Race Types Wins Runs Strike P/L PPR *'s G. Elliott 3-8yo. Run in the last 50 days. Unrated or 100+ 13 35 37.14 42.11 1.20 5 GORDON ELLIOTT 2009/14 Track Record SEASON WINNERS RUNNERS 2009 1 5 2010 3 6 2011 1 9 2012 5 8 2013-2014 3 7 TOTAL 13 35 © 2014 Gavin Priestley Page 5 DOWNPATRICK Commentary Downpatrick Racecourse, located one mile from the town of Downpatrick in County Down, is one of the two horse racing courses in Northern Ireland. It is an undulating, right handed oval