December 15, 2016 OUTPERFORM
BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO
(BEM TB) BEM Share Price: Bt4.80 Target Price: Bt5.50 (+16%) BECL Share Price: Bt41.25 Target Price: Bt48.0 (+16%) BMCL Share Price: Bt2.04 Target Price: Bt2.32 (+14%) Existing Coverage
Stronger together BEM, an amalgamation of BECL-BMCL, will benefit from expanding expressway and MRT networks in Greater Bangkok 2016 will be BEM's golden year with 64% earnings growth, supported by expressways and mass transit extensions OUTPERFORM, Bt5.50 TP; rising traffic and ridership volumes to sustain long-term growth
One of Thailand's best urbanization themes Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM) should benefit from worsening traffic Sunthorn THONGTHIP congestion in Bangkok. To address this, the government is expanding the 662 - 659 7000 ext 5009 expressway and MRT networks in the city and outskirts. The expressway [email protected]
COMPANY RESEARCH | network will expand by 16.7km to 272.8km after the Si Rat – Outer Ring Key Data Road starts operation in 3Q16. The MRT network will expand by 106km to Major shareholders: 190km in 2016-2020 and to 296km subsequently. These will boost traffic and - Ch.Karnchang 27.6 passenger volumes on BEM’s expressways and MRT line, and create - Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand 8.2 investment opportunities for BEM. - Krung Thai Bank 6.9
Three catalysts to support 64% EPS growth in 2016 BECL - Share Price Performance The management will negotiate with BMCL’s creditors to reduce interest Bt BECL TB EQUITY Index expense by c.Bt200m annually. The Si Rat - Outer Ring Road Expressway 48.0 SET Index 1650 46.0 1600 will start to contribute Bt800m earnings annually from 3Q16. The Purple Line 44.0 1550 will also open in 3Q16 and contribute Bt120-160m earnings annually, and 42.0 1500 feed 60,000 riders/day from western Bangkok to BEM’s existing Blue Line. 40.0 1450 These would lift BEM’s earnings by 64% to Bt3.6bn (EPS Bt0.24) in 2016. 38.0 1400 And, negotiations to link the Blue Line to the Purple Line at Bang Sue station 36.0 1350 should be done in 1H16 and the Blue Line Extension in 2H16; the latter 34.0 1300 contributing Bt1.3/sh to our TP. 32.0 1250 30.0 1200 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 OUTPERFORM, TP Bt5.50; a growth utility play YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth We like BEM for their growth prospects and resilience to an economic Absolute (%) downturn. The acceleration of new MRT routes, new concession contracts, 3.8 8.6 17.1 10.8 Relative to index (%) 18.5 16.2 23.9 24.4 upcoming IPO of the advertising subsidiary (BMN), and BEM’s infrastructure funds, have not been factored into our earnings forecasts and TP. We BMCL - Share Price Performance recommend investors convert BECL and BMCL to BEM before trading is Bt BMCL TB EQUITY Index suspended on December 21. BEM shares will start trading on January 5. 2.5 SET Index 1650 2.4 1600 Financial Summary (Btm) 2.3 1550 2.2 1500 Year to Dec 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2.1 1450 Sales (Btm) 10,568 11,203 11,692 13,352 16,951 2.0 1400 Growth (%) 5.7 6.0 4.4 14.2 26.9 1.9 1350 EBITDA (Btm) 8,974 6,516 6,621 7,441 9,649 1.8 1.7 1300 Growth (%) 63.1 -27.4 1.6 12.4 29.7 1.6 1250 Recurring profit (Btm) 4,167 2,208 2,223 3,645 4,735 1.5 1200 Growth (%) 5,854.4 -47.0 0.7 64.0 29.9 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 FDEPS (Bt) 0.27 0.14 0.15 0.24 0.31 YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth Growth (%) 5,854.4 -47.0 0.7 64.0 29.9 Absolute (%) 2.0 10.3 15.3 18.6 PE (x) 14.2 31.6 33.0 20.1 15.5 Relative to index (%) 16.7 17.8 22.0 32.2 DPS (Bt) 0.08 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.15 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Yield (%) 2.1% 2.8% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% BVPS (Bt) 1.75 1.96 1.98 2.10 2.26 P/BV (x) 2.21 2.33 2.42 2.28 2.13
Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
BEM: Business Structure
Expressway MRT 2015E Distance Serviced Kms. 70.5 20 Traffic/Ridership M. Trips / day 1.15 0.26 Toll/Farebox Revenue mn Bt / year 8,817 2,366 CD&A Revenue mn Bt / year - 509
2020E Distance Serviced Kms. 87.2* 69** Traffic/Ridership M. Trips/day 1.4 1.7 Toll/Farebox Revenue mn Bt / year 12,034 9,199 CD&A Revenue mn Bt / year 100-500*** 1,246 *Inclusive of Si Rat – Outer Ring Road Expressway **Inclusive of Existing Blue line, Purple line and Blue line extension **BMN plans to expand the CD&A business to expressway (not yet include in our earnings estimate).
BEM: Expressway Network BEM: Expressway Traffic Volume (forecast) Vehicle per day 2015F 2020F
I, FES (2020) 376,589 396,779 II, A (2020) 221,708 237,078
II, B (2020) 102,453 109,825
C (2020) 188,830 230,840 D (2027) 178,962 203,466
C+, NECL Phase I (2026) 56,745 64,202
C+, NECL Phase II (2026) 17,813 20,154
Srirat - Outer Ring road (2042) 136,269
1,143,102 1,398,614 Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities ( ) = expiration year of the concession
Thailand: MRT map BEM: Existing Blue Line ridership forecast Blue Line (20 Km.) 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F Ridership ('000 trips/day) 261 282 311 342 376 451 Growth Rate 3% 8% 10% 10% 10% 20%
Feed in to existing Blue line Purple Line 18 60 63 66 69 Blue Line extension 200 350 Red Line 50 Total Ridership 261 300 371 405 642 920 ('000 trips/day)
Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities
Krungsri Securities Research 2
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
Why we like BEM
We resume our coverage of BEM, an amalgamation of BECL and BMCL, with an OUTPERFORM rating and a DCF-based TP of Bt5.50/sh. We like BEM for the following reasons:
1) Government will expand expressway and MRT networks The government has committed to resolving Bangkok’s traffic problems by expanding the expressway and MRT networks. The expressway network will be extended by 16.7 km to 272.8 km after the Si Rat – Outer Ring Road Expressway (BECL is the operator) starts operation in 2016. The MRT network will expand by 106 km to 190 km over 2016-2020 and to 296 km after 2020. These will not only support traffic and passenger volumes on BEM’s expressways and the MRT, but also create substantial investment opportunities for BEM.
Thailand: Expressway Network Thailand: Mass Transit Network Distance Mass Transit Network Distance (km) Status Operator Expressway network (km) Operator Mo Chit-On Nut Bearing 21.8 Operational BTS Bearing-Samut Prakan 12.8 Constructing 1.First Stage Expressway System 27.1 EXAT Mo Chit-Saphan Mai-Khu Khot 18.4 Developing 2.Second Stage Expressway System (SES) 38.5 BECL National Stadium-Bangw a 14.5 Operational BTS 3.Northern Stage Expressway 32 NECL Bang Sue-Hua Lamphong 20 Operational BMCL 4.Don Muang Tollway 28 DMT Tao Poon-Tha Phra Hua Lamphong-Bang Khae 27 Constructing ARL: Phaya Thai-Suvarnnabhumi 28.5 Operational 5.Ramindra-Atnarong Expressway 28.2 EXAT Bang Yai-Bang Sue 23 Constructing BMCL 6.Ramindra-Outer Ring Road Expressway 9.5 EXAT Bang Sue-Rat Burana 20 Developing 7.Bang Pli-Suksawad Expressway 37.8 EXAT Bang Sue-Rangsit 26.3 Constructing Taling Chan-Cultural Center-Minburi 17.5 Developing 8.Bangna-Chonburi Expressway 55 EXAT Kae Rai-Minburi 36 Developing 9.Si Rat-Outer Ring Road Expressway 16.7 BECL Lad Phrao-Samrong 30.4 Developing Total 296.2 Total 272.8
Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities
2) Positive network effect from new MRT lines We expect ridership on the existing Blue Line to grow by 50% CAGR between FY15 and FY20 to 920,000 trips/day in 2025, from 261,000 in 2015. We forecast boarding passengers on the existing Blue Line will increase by 15% CAGR during the period to 451,000 trips/day supported by rapid urbanization in Greater Bangkok, the expanding mass transit network, and future property developments. Meanwhile, the opening of Purple Line in 2016, Blue Line extension in 2019, and Red Line in 2020 will feed passengers (about 469,000 trips/day) to BEM’s existing Blue Line by 2020. If the Orange, Pink and Yellow lines start operation by 2022 as planned, ridership on the existing Blue Line could rise to 1.4m trips/day by then. We have yet to include these in our earnings forecast.
The breakeven cost for the existing Blue Line (inclusive of cost of fare box, SG&A and interest expense) will continue to rise until the concession expires in 2029, due to rising concession fee. We expect ridership to breach the breakeven point in 2016 after the Purple Line extension opens in 2016.
Krungsri Securities Research 3
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
BEM: Existing Blue Line farebox revenue and BEM: Breakeven ridership breakeven cost
Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities
3) 2016 the golden year for BEM Firstly, the management would negotiate with BMCL’s creditors to reduce financial cost to 4.0-4.5% from 6.5% currently, which would save save Bt200m in interest expense annually. Secondly, the Si Rat - Outer Ring Road Expressway will open in 3Q16 and contribute Bt800m earnings annually. Thirdly, the Purple Line scheduled to open on August 12 would generate Bt120-160m earnings annually. The line would also feed up to 60,000 riders/day to BEM’s existing Blue Line. These will drive 2016 earnings to grow by 50% yoy to Bt3.3bn (Bt0.22 EPS). Fourthly, we expect negotiations between the MRTA and BEM on the Blue Line project (Tao Poon-Bang Sue) to be completed in 1H16 and the Blue Line Extension in 2H16 (Bt1.3/sh of our TP).
BEM: Outlook (5- year Plan)
Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities
Krungsri Securities Research 4
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
Valuation
OUTPERFORM rating with Bt5.50/sh TP
Our TP is based on DCF valuation (6.1% WACC for BECL, 7.6% WACC for BMCL) and implies 22.5x FY16F PE. The stock offers 2.2% dividend yield (FY16F). We like BEM for their growth prospect and resilience to an economic downturn.
Valuation Bt mn Bt/sh Expressway business Expressway I, II (A,B), C expired in 2020 6,598 0.43 Expressway C+ expired in 2026 2,679 0.18 Expressway D expired in 2027 3,571 0.23 Si-rat Outer Ring road expired in 2042 14,024 0.92 Total Expressway business 26,873 1.76
Rail business Initial Blue line PPP Net cost 23,426 1.53 Purple line PPP Gross cost 1,614 0.11 Blue line extension PPP Net cost 20,676 1.35 Total Rail business 45,716 2.99
CD business BMN - Initial Blue line 2,003 0.13
Investment 10,087 0.66
Total 84,679 5.50
*We believe BMCL has a high chance to receive the concession right to operate the Blue line extension given the experience in the business. Moreover, the route of the Existing Blue line, Purple line, and Blue line Extension is in circular. It is necessary for the train operation to be continuous, in order to provide convenience and safety to the passengers, efficiency in service, and economies of scale in investment.
Source: Krungsri Securities
Upside risks 1) Acceleration of new MRT routes under the fast-track PPP program 2) BMN - Purple Line in 2016 3) BMN - Blue Line extension in 2020 4) Existing Blue Line concession is extended in 2029 5) Orange, Pink and Yellow lines feeding additional riders from 2022 6) BMN IPO in 2017 7) BEM’s infrastructure funds 8) BEM gets new concession contracts
Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities
Krungsri Securities Research 5
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
Recommend to convert BECL and BMCL to BEM
We recommend investors to convert BECL and BMCL to BEM before trading is suspended on December 21. BEM shares will start trading on January 5, 2016.
BEM: Timeline
Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities
Theoretical post-merger share price (THB) BMCL BECL BEM BMCL BECL BEM 1.89 38.90 4.49 2.10 43.224.99 1.90 39.10 4.52 2.12 43.635.04 1.91 39.31 4.54 2.14 44.045.09 1.92 39.51 4.57 2.16 44.455.14 1.93 39.72 4.59 2.18 44.865.18 1.94 39.93 4.61 2.20 45.285.23 1.95 40.13 4.64 2.22 45.695.28 1.96 40.34 4.66 2.24 46.105.33 1.97 40.54 4.68 2.26 46.515.37 1.98 40.75 4.71 2.28 46.925.42 1.99 40.95 4.73 2.30 47.335.47 2.00 41.16 4.76 2.32 47.755.52 2.02 41.57 4.80 2.34 48.165.56 2.04 41.98 4.85 2.36 48.575.61 2.06 42.39 4.90 2.38 48.985.66 2.08 42.81 4.95 2.40 49.395.71
Krungsri Securities Research 6
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
BEM: Amalgamation of Transactions
Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities
Key risks
Delay of new MRT lines: Delays in the new MRT lines would reduce ridership growth and result in weaker financial performance.
BEM fails to secure Blue Line extension concession: Our earnings forecasts and TP may be revised down significantly if BEM does not get the concession. However, we believe BMCL is a strong contender given their experience and cost competitiveness relative to rivals.
Low inflation means slim chance for fare hike: Fares on BEM’s existing Blue Line are reviewed and changed every 24 months based on actual changes in the Bangkok non-food CPI, while toll rates are reviewed every five years based on the Bangkok CPI (the next review is scheduled for 2018). But with the inflation outlook subdued by low oil prices, we have conservatively assumed a 2% fare hike for the existing Blue Line and no hike for toll rates in 2018.
Major shareholders
Major Shareholders #Shares (mn) %Shares 1.Ch.Karnchang 4,217.50 27.6% 2.Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand 1,256.30 8.2% 3.Krung Thai Bank 1,047.03 6.9% 4.Hicrete Products & Technology 657.29 4.3% 5.Bangkok Bank 432.87 2.8% Total 7,610.91 49.8%
Krungsri Securities Research 7
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
BECL
P/BV Band EV/EBITDA Band (X) (X) 2.3 10.0 +3 S.D. = 9.7x 2.1 +3 S.D. = PBV 1.9x 1.9 9.0 +2 S.D. = 8.7x +2 S.D. = PBV 1.6x 1.7 8.0 +1 S.D. = 7.7x 1.5 +1 S.D. = PBV 1.4x 1.3 7.0 L-T Average at 6.7x 1.1 L-T Average at 1.0x 0.9 6.0 -1 S.D. = 5.6x -1 S.D. = PBV 0.7x 0.7 5.0 -2 S.D. = 4.6 x 0.5 -2 S.D. = PBV0.4x 0.3 4.0 Jul-09 Jul-14 Oct-10 Apr-08 Oct-15 Apr-13 Jan-07 Jun-07 Jan-12 Jun-12 Feb-09 Mar-11 Feb-14 Jul-09 Jul-14 Nov-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Aug-11 Nov-12 Sep-13 Dec-14 May-10 May-15 Apr-08 Oct-10 Apr-13 Oct-15 Jan-07 Jun-07 Jan-12 Jun-12 Feb-09 Mar-11 Feb-14 Nov-07 Sep-08 Dec-09 Aug-11 Nov-12 Sep-13 Dec-14 May-10 May-15
Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities
BMCL
P/BV Band EV/EBITDA Band (X) (X) 9.9 +2 S.D. = PBV 9.0x 254.0 8.9 +3 S.D. = 141x 7.9 204.0 +1 S.D. = PBV 6.7x 6.9 +2 S.D. = 125x 5.9 154.0 +1 S.D. = 104x 4.9 L-T Average at 4.3x 104.0 3.9 L-T Average at 78x 2.9 -1 S.D. = PBV 2.0x 54.0 1.9 -1 S.D. = 31.4x 0.9 4.0 Jul-12 Apr-11 Oct-13 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-15 Jun-15 Feb-12 Mar-14 Nov-10 Sep-11 Dec-12 Aug-14 Nov-15 Jul-12 May-13 Oct-13 Apr-11 Jan-15 Jun-15 Jan-10 Jun-10 Mar-14 Feb-12 Dec-12 Aug-14 Nov-15 Nov-10 Sep-11 May-13 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities
Peer table Market PE P/BV EV/EBITDA Div Yld ROE Share Price Cap (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Performance BB Ticker Name US$ 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 15F 1M 3M 6M YTD BECL TB BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY 880 11.0 8.5 1.4 1.3 6.2 5.9 5.7 12.8 9.3 17.9 7.1 4.4 737 HK HOPEWELL HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCT 1,447 16.3 14.2 0.6 0.6 5.3 4.9 6.1 8.3 2.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 576 HK ZHEJIANG EXPRESSWAY 5,133 12.1 11.5 0.5 0.5 7.4 6.8 4.8 15.6 -8.8 7.3 -20.3 1.7 548 HK SHENZHEN EXPRESSWAY 2,598 8.4 10.4 0.9 1.0 9.0 8.6 5.1 12.0 3.3 23.4 -5.7 25.7 107 HK SICHUAN EXPRESSWAY 1,951 7.0 7.0 1.6 1.7 10.9 10.3 3.5 7.7 -5.2 2.4 -34.4 -23.1 995 HK ANHUI EXPRESSWAY 2,763 10.2 10.1 0.7 0.8 10.3 10.1 4.3 11.9 3.0 5.6 -27.3 29.5 LTK MK LINGKARAN TRANS KOTA HLDGS 614 15.5 11.9 0.2 0.3 9.8 7.2 4.3 30.5 1.8 2.6 21.4 37.8 Average (simple) 11.5 10.5 0.8 0.9 8.4 7.7 4.8 14.1
BMCL TB BANGKOK METRO PCL 1,159 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9 8.7 0.0 -8.0 10.3 15.3 8.5 2.0 BTS TB BTS GROUP HOLDINGS PCL 2,893 41.9 43.3 0.5 0.5 38.1 35.0 7.7 4.5 -8.9 -9.8 -11.6 -9.3 66 HK MTR CORP 27,358 19.6 22.8 0.8 0.8 13.6 13.6 3.1 6.5 2.3 3.4 -1.4 13.8 MRT SP SMRT CORP LTD 1,563 25.8 23.7 0.4 0.4 8.8 8.5 2.1 9.7 0.0 19.4 -5.9 -8.5 Average (simple) 21.8 22.5 0.4 0.4 37.8 16.4 3.2 3.2 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Krungsri securities
Krungsri Securities Research 8
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
INCOME STATEMENT (Btm) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Turnover 10,568 11,203 11,692 13,352 16,951 Cost of sales (COGS) (1,832) (2,110) (2,405) (2,997) (4,307) Depreciation & amoritisation (2,381) (2,303) (2,501) (2,664) (3,025) Gross profit 6,355 6,790 6,785 7,692 9,618 S&A expenses (2,679) (2,669) (2,760) (3,012) (3,094) Operating profit 3,677 4,122 4,025 4,679 6,524 Other operating income 2,916 92 94 97 100 EBIT 6,592 4,213 4,120 4,777 6,624 Interest expense (2,029) (1,437) (1,633) (836) (1,185) Interest income 49 41 107 276 218 Other income (363) (387) (401) (418) (517) Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 4,250 2,430 2,192 3,798 5,141 Income tax on company & subsidiaries (461) (702) (547) (745) (1,009) Profit after tax 3,789 1,727 1,645 3,053 4,132 Minority interests (22) (66) (54) (54) (54) Share of associate net income 401 546 632 647 658 Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Recurring attributable net profit 4,167 2,208 2,223 3,645 4,735 Extraordinary items 206 537 0 0 0 Reported net profit 4,373 2,745 2,223 3,645 4,735
Shares in issue (Y/E, m) 15,285 15,285 15,285 15,285 15,285 Shares in issue (weighted avg, m) 15,285 15,285 15,285 15,285 15,285 EPS 0.29 0.18 0.15 0.24 0.31 DPS (Bt) 0.08 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.15 DPS/EPS (%) 28% 70% 50% 50% 50%
CASH FLOW (Btm) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Cash flows from operations before WC 6,916 4,813 4,968 6,574 8,211 Net change in working capital 1,822 763 (473) (241) 299 Cash flow from Operations 8,738 5,576 4,495 6,333 8,510 Capex (1,827) (89) (268) (27,699) (388) Other (6,703) (8,673) (4,814) 20,541 693 Cash flow from Investment (8,530) (8,763) (5,082) (7,158) 305 Net borrowings (5,229) 3,722 8,841 424 (6,212) Equity capital raised 8,550 (0) (0) (0) (0) Others (1,788) 1,692 0 0 0 Dividends paid (1,217) (1,309) (1,925) (1,852) (2,461) Cashflow from financing 317 4,105 6,916 (1,428) (8,673) Net change in cash 525 918 6,329 (2,253) 142
Krungsri Securities Research 9
Existing Coverage | BEM December 15, 2015
BALANCE SHEET (Btm) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Cash & equivalents 3,807 4,725 11,054 8,801 8,942 A/C receivable 83 102 106 142 206 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 Others 198 198 207 242 313 Total Current Assets 4,087 5,025 11,367 9,185 9,462 Property and equipment 27,606 24,911 22,259 44,857 41,685 Investments & associates 29,625 31,039 26,967 28,546 28,028 Goodwill 5,725 12,289 21,457 1,606 1,606 Other assets 368 494 1,124 21,676 20,729 Total Assets 67,411 73,758 83,175 105,871 101,510 Short-term debt 3,543 5,041 10,085 9,267 7,567 A/C payable 1,464 1,983 2,051 2,188 2,479 Other current liabilities 2,174 2,614 2,726 2,977 3,627 Total Current Liabilities 7,182 9,637 14,862 14,433 13,673 Long-term debt 26,462 28,678 32,471 33,681 29,114 Other liabilities 7,003 5,502 5,549 25,618 24,255 Total Liabilities 40,647 43,817 52,882 73,731 67,042 Share capital 28,2000 28,2000 15,2850 15,2850 15,2850 Share premium 5,817 5,817 5,817 5,817 5,817 Treasury 0 0 0 0 0 Translation adjustment (323) 1,357 1,357 1,357 1,357 Retained earnings (7,021) (5,591) 7,623 9,415 11,689 Total ordinary equity 26,673 29,783 30,082 31,874 34,148 Preferred equity 0 0 0 0 0 Minorities 91 157 211 266 320 Total equity & minorities 26,764 29,940 30,293 32,140 34,468 BV per ordinary share (Y/E, Bt) 1.75 1.96 1.98 2.10 2.26 Adjusted book value ps (Y/E, Bt) 1.75 1.96 1.98 2.10 2.26
RATIOS (%) 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Growth Turnover 5.7 6.0 4.4 14.2 26.9 EBITDA 63.1 (27.4) 1.6 12.4 29.7 EBIT 111.6 (36.1) (2.2) 15.9 38.7 Net profit 243.6 (37.2) (19.0) 64.0 29.9 EPS pre extraordinary items 5,854.4 (47.0) 0.7 64.0 29.9 EPS (diluted) 243.6 (37.2) (19.0) 64.0 29.9 DPS 6.7 56.3 (42.3) 64.0 29.9 Accounting ratios Gross profit margin 60.1 60.6 58.0 57.6 56.7 Operating profit margin 34.8 36.8 34.4 35.0 38.5 EBITDA margin 84.9 58.2 56.6 55.7 56.9 EBIT margin 62.4 37.6 35.2 35.8 39.1 Net profit margin 41.4 24.5 19.0 27.3 27.9 ROA 6.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 4.7 ROE 15.6 7.4 7.3 11.3 13.7 Stability D/E (x) 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.9 Net D/E (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 Current ratio (x) 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 Quick ratio (x) 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 Valuation (x) PER 14.0 21.6 31.4 20.1 15.5 Normalized PER 14.2 31.6 33.0 20.1 15.5 P/BV 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 EV/EBTDA 9.5 15.2 15.8 14.4 10.5 Dividend yield (%) 2.1% 2.8% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2%
Krungsri Securities Research 10
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies 2014
Thai Institute of Director (IOD)
BAFS BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART SAMTEL SAT SC SCB SE-ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB TOP To recognize well performers, the list of companies attaining "Good", "Very Good" and "Excellent" levels of recognition without regulatory notation (from January 1, 2013 to October 22, 2014) is publicized.
AAV ACAP ADVANC ANAN AOT ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BECL BIGC BKI BLA BMCL BROOK CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT CK CNT CPF CSL DELTA DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GUNKUL HEMRAJ HMPRO ICC KCE KSL LANNA LH LHBANK LOXLEY LPN MACO MC MCOT NBC NCH NINE NKI NMG NSI OCC OFM PAP PE PG PHOL PJW PM PPS PR PRANDA PS PT QH RATCH ROBINS RS S&J SAMCO SCC SINGER SIS SITHAI SNC SNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC STA SVI TCAP TF THAI THANI THCOM TIP TIPCO TK TKT TNITY TNL TOG TRC TRUE TSTE TSTH TTA TTW TVO UAC VGI VNT WACOAL
2S AF AH AHC AIT AJ AKP AKR AMANAH AMARIN AMATA AP APCO APCS AQUA ARIP AS ASIA AYUD BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BJC BJCHI BOL BTNC BWG CCET CGD CGS CHOW CI CKP CM CMR CSC CSP CSS DCC DEMCO DNA EA ESSO FE FORTH FPI GENCO GL GLOBAL GLOW GOLD HOTPOT HTC HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL INET IRC IRCP ITD KBS KGI KKC KTC L&E LRH LST MAJOR MAKRO MATCH MBK MBKET MEGA MFC MFEC MJD MODERN MONO MOONG MPG MTI NC NTV NUSA NWR NYT OGC OISHI PACE PATO PB PDI PICO PPM PPP PREB PRG PRIN PTG QLT QTC RCL SABINA SALEE SCBLIF SCCC SCG SEAFCO SEAOIL SFP SIAM SIRI SKR SMG SMK SMPC SMT SOLAR SPC SPCG SPPT SST STANLY STEC STPI SUC SWC SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TEAM TFD TFI THANA THIP THREL TIC TICON TIW TKS TLUXE TMI TMT TNDT TPC TPCORP TRT TRU TSC TTCL TUF TVD TWFP UMI UP UPF UPOIC UT UV UWC VIH WAVE WHA WIN WINNER YUASA ZMICO Score Range Number of Logos Description 90-100 Excellent 80-89 Very Good 70-79 Good 60-69 Satisfactory 50-59 Pass Below 50 No logo given N/A
Disclaimer The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and the Market of Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited
Headquarters 898 Ploenchit Tower, 3rd Floor, Ploenchit Road, Lumpini Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel: 0-2659-7000 Fax: 0-2658-5699 Internet Trading: 0-2659-7777 Branches Emporium Nakhon Pathom 662 Emporium Tower, Fl. 10, Sukhumvit 24 Road 67/1 Ratchadamnoen Road, Tambol Phra Pathom Jaedee, Klongton, Klongtoey, Bangkok 10110 Amphur Muang, Nakhon Pathom 73000 Tel: 0-2695-4500 Fax: 0-2695-4599 Tel: 0-3427-5500-7 Fax: 0-3421-8989
Central Bangna Suphanburi 589/151 Central City Tower 1 Office, Fl. 27 249/171-172 Moo 5 Tambol Ta Rahad, Bangna-Trad Road, Bangna, Bangkok 10260 Amphur Muang, Suphanburi, 72000 Tel: 0-2763-2000 Fax: 0-2399-1448 Tel: 0-3550-1234 Fax: 0-3552-2449
Rama II Nakhon Ratchasima 111/917-919 Rama II Road, Smaedum, 168 Chomphon Road, Tambol Nai Muang, Bangkhuntien, Bangkok 10150 Amphur Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, Tel: 0-2895-9575 Fax: 0-2895-9557 Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Tel: 0-4425-1211-4 Fax: 0-4425-1215 Vibhavadi-rangsit Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited Khon Kaen 123 Suntowers (B) Building, Vibhavadirangsit Road, 114 Sri Chan Road, Tambol Nai Muang, Jompol, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Amphur Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Tel: 0-2273-8388 Fax: 0-2273-8399 Tel: 0-4322-6120 Fax: 0-4322-6180
Chonburi Chiang Mai 64/17 Sukhumvit Road, Tambol Bang Plasoi, 70 Chang Phuak Road, Tambol Sri Phum Amphur Muang, Chonburi 20000 Amphur Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 Tel: 0-3879-0430 Fax: 0-3879-0425 Tel: 0-5321-9234 Fax: 0-5321-9247
Hat Yai Branch Chiang Rai 90-92-94 Nipat U Tit Nueng Road,Tambol Hat Yai, 231-232 Thamalai Road, Tambol Wiang, Amphur Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110 Amphur Muang, Chiang Rai 57000 Tel: 0-7422-1229 Fax: 0-7422-1411 Tel: 0-5371-6489 Fax: 0-5371-6490
Phitsanulok 275/1 Phichaisongkram Road, Tambol Nai Muang, Amphur Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Tel: 0-5530-3360 Fax: 0-5530-2580 Central line: Analyst Team Sector Coverage 662-659-7000 E-mail Naphat Chantaraserekul, Head of Research Energy, Petrochemical, Strategy ext. 5000 [email protected] Kittisorn Pruitipat, CFA, FRM Property, ICT ext. 5019 [email protected] Jesada Techahusdin, CFA Banking, Insurance, Consumer Finance ext. 5004 [email protected] Sunthorn Thongthip Food, Strategy ext. 5009 [email protected] Kaweewit Thawilwithayanon Renewable Energy, Contractor ext. 5010 [email protected] Worrapong Tuntiwutthipong Mid cap, Electronic, Media, Automotive, ext. 5016 [email protected] Commerce Teerapol Udomvej, Assistant Analyst Healthcare Pavich Chittmittrapap, Assistant Analyst Songklod Wongchai Investment Strategy ext. 5003 [email protected] Artit Jansawang Small cap, MAI ext. 5005 [email protected] Apisak Limthumrongkul Technical ext. 5007 [email protected] Fax 662-658-5643 Definition of Ratings OUTPERFORM - Stocks with an expected capital gain above 10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, above 5% for big-caps NEUTRAL - Stocks with an expected capital gain between -10% and +10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, -5% to +5% for big-caps UNDERPERFORM - Stocks with an expected capital gain below 10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, below 5% for big-caps www.krungsrisecurities.com