Practical Exercise Et Simulated Assessment:Thunderstorm, Icing, Turbulence

Practical Exercise Et Simulated Assessment:Thunderstorm, Icing, Turbulence

Practical Exercise et simulated assessment:Thunderstorm, icing, turbulence

  1. Your team need to produce a TS SIGMET, a ICING SIGMET and a TURBULENCE SIGMET.

Info needed:

TS SIGMET

-CB max top

-CB qualifiers : FRQ TS (TSGR or TSGR PSLB +FC) SQLN TS (TSGR or TSGR PSLB +FC)

-Direction and speed

-Trend :Intensifying/weakening/no change

ICING SIGMET

-Base FL, Top FL

-Direction and speed

-Trend :Intensifying/weakening/no change

TURBULENCE SIGMET

-Base FL, Top FL

-Direction and speed

-Trend :Intensifying/weakening/no change

  1. Would you need to include these infos (severe TS, ICING or TURB) into another forecast product?
  1. AMF assessment :Appropriate techniques

3.1a Forecasting severe thunderstorms

  • Demonstrates ability to forecast the intensity, extent, movement and tops:
  • Verifies upstream data for intensity and visibilities in thunderstorms;
  • Uses satellite imagery to determine extent, evolution and movement;
  • Compares IR cloud-top temperature to soundings to determine tops;
  • Determines thunderstorm tops using radar;
  • Uses different NWP models and compares to reality;
  • Considers synoptic patterns (warm front vs. cold front thunderstorms);
  • Verifies different convective indices (K, LI, SWEAT, etc.);
  • Coordinates with other weather offices;
  • Determines the 0-6km mean wind for thunderstorm movement.
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast wind gust strength and wind shear:
  • Verifies upstream data;
  • Verifies upper-level winds using soundings (model and actual);
  • Uses the Doppler radar to locate possible mesocyclones and potential gusts;
  • Uses satellite imagery to determine whether gust fronts are present;
  • Coordinates with other weather offices for wind warnings.
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast thunderstorms:
  • Knows the necessary ingredients for thunderstorm formation (moisture, instability and trigger);
  • Uses water vapour imagery to locate jet streams (right-entrance and left-exit regions) and shortwaves;
  • Uses radar extrapolation tool to determine arrival time and duration;
  • Enumerates different indices/clues that indicate a thunderstorm might be severe (overshooting tops, hail, meso, strong winds, etc.).

3.1b Forecasting turbulence

  • Demonstrates ability to forecast type: MECH, CAT, LEE WV
  • Knows the formation criteria for different types of turbulence;
  • Considers local effects;
  • Uses different types of satellite imagery for clues of turbulence (transverse bands, mountain waves, etc.);
  • Uses NWP models to determine levels and hence the type;
  • Determines surface stability (MECH vs. LLWS);
  • Verifies the Outgoing Flux field to locate lee waves (vertically-propagating);
  • Compares NWP model soundings to actual soundings;
  • Knows the moderate and severe MECH wind criteria;
  • Verifies soundings to determine moderate-to-severe wind shear levels.
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast severity:
  • Uses different tools;
  • Knows the difference between moderate and severe mechanical turbulence (wind force);
  • Uses water vapour imagery (strong moisture contrasts, well-defined transverse bands, etc.);
  • Considerssynoptic patterns (deformation zones, etc.);
  • Monitors PIREPs.
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast base, top, onset, duration and dissipation time for the phenomenon:
  • Uses different tools;
  • Verifies IR cloud-top temperature and compares to soundings to determine level of tropopause and tops of lee wave turbulence;
  • Verifies soundings to determine levels of moderate-to-severe wind shear.

3.1d Forecasting icing

  • Demonstrate ability to forecast type: CLR, MXD, RIME
  • Considers synoptic patterns;
  • Knows which type of icing is most dangerous and why;
  • Accurately explains what each type of icing is associated to;
  • Uses NWP soundings for profiles (warm nose) and cloud type and compares to actual soundings;
  • Uses satellite imagery to determine cloud type and therefore icing type;
  • Monitors PIREPs.
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast severity: LGT, MDT, SEV
  • Considers synoptic patterns;
  • Uses NWP soundings for profiles and cloud type and compares to actual soundings;
  • Uses satellite imagery to determine cloud type;
  • Monitors PIREPs;
  • Demonstrates ability to forecast base/top, onset, duration and dissipation time:
  • Uses NWP models and compares to reality;
  • Uses satellite imagery and extrapolates clouds;
  • Uses model soundings to forecast base and top;
  • Monitors PIREPs.
  1. Decode a TS, ICING and TURBULENCE SIGMET

SIGA0E
KZNY SIGMET ECHO 2 VALID 201330/201730 KKCI-
NEW YORK OCEANIC FIR FRQ TS OBS AT 1330Z WI N3200 W05645 - N2645
W05700 - N2645 W06845 - N3045 W06915 - N3200 W05645. TOP FL450.
MOV ESE 15KT. NC.

ENOB SIGMET E02 VALID 201401/201801 ENVN-
ENOB BODO OCEANIC FIR OCNL SEV TURB FCST WI 30 NM FM LINE N7620 -
E01000 AND N7720 - E03000 FL200/290 MOV SE NC=

NZZO SIGMET 27 VALID 201424/201824 NZKL-
NZZO AUCKLAND OCEANIC FIR SEV ICE FCST WI S3820 W14030 - S3800
W13700 - S4110 W13830 - S4750 W13450 - S4620 W14000 - S4120 W14300 -
S3820 W14030 3000FT/FL160 STNR NC=

Find the following info for TS :

-CB max tops

-CB qualifier

-Direction and speed

-Intensifying/weakening/no change

Find the following info for ICING :

-FL base and top

-Direction and speed

-Intensifying/weakening/no change

Find the following info for TURBULENCE :

-FL base and top

-Direction and speed

-Intensifying/weakening/no change

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